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weathafella

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  1. weathafella
    What was the strongest tri monthly last year nina vs this nino? I think it’s awfully hard to declare after a big WWB which has a big effect on some daily reading eastern enso areas for a few days even a week or more....
  2. weathafella
    Actually, and admittedly the guidance that far out may not be stellar but most has it back to the cod before it re-emerges on the left side of the circle.
  3. weathafella
    Don, thanks so much for your work with this write up! It would seem you have the right idea here. To me the autumn particularly October onward resembles 2002 a lot. Good luck with the forecast and thanks again!
  4. weathafella
    That’s a really detailed and excellent write up Ray! The hard work and your learning shines through. YOU are now one of our teachers!
  5. weathafella
    Still not the point. Right now the pattern here is rather ninoesque. But you’re right the pattern doesn’t have to be. But my point is Niño through February only means my spring will suck even more than usual.
  6. weathafella
    So? It’s over regarding this winter.
  7. weathafella
    That’s not the point. To me looking at everything increases the likelihood of a successful forecast. There’s no question you put the time and research in.
  8. weathafella
    Do changes at this point matter regarding winter? I mean if December has a major change the lag brings us to March or later...so I think the future effects more the tale end of winter or more applicable spring.
  9. weathafella
    I don’t get the aversion to looking at others. Would you like your doctor to not review your medical record that has opinions of others? I understand you’re doing this for fun but if you were getting paid it would seem like meteorological negligence/malpractice.
  10. weathafella
    Isotherm, that’s a nice write up! Thanks for putting the work in. I hope you’re right (suspect you are)!
  11. weathafella
    57 featured a big snow dump around 12/5 in NNJ. My mother invited my school chums for lunch for my 11th bday a day ahead of the storm. In those days we came home from school for lunch and then went back. I remember lunch with dark overcast with temperatures around 40. We topped a foot in that event-Bergen County of New Jersey.
  12. weathafella
    Per SV, the 10/27 ssta: enso 1: 0.05 enso 1.2: 0.37 enso 2: 0.70 Enso 3.4: 0.55 Ens 4: 0.93 modoki index: 0.65 If we typically experience the effects in 3 months, we’re basically game over for winter.
  13. weathafella
    I think there are examples of not so good winters even with what would appear to guarantee one. And vice versa. It’s hard to have a handle because the least predictable element beyond 2 weeks is the nao. And that could be the difference. Unless we get episodes of transient blocking even less predictable.
  14. weathafella
    How do you run analogs of subsurface without a match to ssta ground truth? I’d want to see that before going forward since it doesn’t matter what subsurface is if it doesn’t translate the same way to the measured ssta.
  15. weathafella
    I bet when this October goes into the books 2002 temperatures will match.
  16. weathafella
    I think most of the east is well above for October so far. A good chunk if not all could be wiped out but my guess is we finish slightly above for the month.
  17. weathafella
    Breaking out Ben Noll...lol.
  18. weathafella
    In terms of sensible wx, for my neighborhood 2002 is a near perfect match including dates of the flip from way above normal in October to this year of guidance is reasonably close.
  19. weathafella
  20. weathafella
    Wait-is eyewall gone?
  21. weathafella
    2002 featured an abnormally is warm first half of October with a polar opposite 2nd half. November-March were cold and snowy with coastal areas snow somewhat muted in December and January but epic thereafter.
  22. weathafella
    It’s kind of a gradient pattern but due to seasonal considerations the gradient is in Canada. I have a hard time believing the SE ridge has any winter staying power with looming modoki.
  23. weathafella
    Tenet 4 of the weenie playbook....
  24. weathafella
    I think they held d/t what’s happened in the past few hours.
  25. weathafella
    That’s rough Steve! Get well! You will walk in snow ths winter! You overnighting in the hospital?
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