weathafella

So let’s take the hypothetical that this week is normal. For BOS that means around 50-52. BOS climo max drops below 50 on 11/27. The drop is fast thereafter but my point is it’s very easy to be below normal for the next 10 days and not have any snow chances.

It's amazing how many friends my age think this November has been warm. I guess growing up with a few very cold Novembers during our formative years skewed people's judgement. Boston should finish the month solidly below normal considering they came out of the torch still -1.2. Normal high should drop below 50 by Thanksgiving and 3 degrees/week for about the next month.

Just a few days ago you could see ensembles trying to break down a potentially wintry pattern. Now they’re showing reload. If all this holds we could have a nice late November into the first part of December.

True story: I had a rental property about 50 miles east of LA 40 years ago and needed to drive out there one day. Of course this is well before the internet and streaming so I had regular radio on and they did a 1 hour interview with Moe Howard’s (Moe of 3 stooges) daughter. She basically said her entire life with her father was a hoot! Someone let the pope know that normal highs for PSM this time of year are still well into the 40s.

10-15 below normal is so meh….

See you at 18z.

I’d much rather below normal November this year vs past years. We just got our mid October to mid November gas bill. 60% higher therms vs a year ago same period with 4 less days vs a year ago. If you’re not noticing the difference this November vs past few you’re not really interested in anything but snow. Snow in this part of the world has been scarce in November as long as I’m alive. If we happen to get something in the next 2 weeks that’s beyond a minimal amount I think that’s a good sign for the upcoming winter.

Funny we’re heading to Chicago Sunday driving this time before going to California the day before Thanksgiving. Coming back to Boston by car through the lakes especially returning the end of tday weekend could be interesting.

That’s a very tough loss Jeff. I wish you better days ahead.

I guess they think CFS is their daddy…lol.

I think it was mentioned in the El Niño thread on the main board euro weeklies are now issued daily vs Monday and Thursday in the past.

Crazy week. MIL has one eye and that potentially needs surgery mid week. We’ll drive to Chicago and help nurse her back/probably get there Sunday. I fly to SFO form ORD to spend the holiday with my sons and grandchildren the day before Thanksgiving returning to ORD Saturday the 25th and hopefully we can drive back leaving the 27th. Looking at the progs we should see some cold and probably snow at some point probably LES on the way to or from Chicago from home. Cold this morning! Still sitting at 30 after a low of 24.

You leaving roofs on or rip them off?

Tonight will probably be a tick or 2 colder.

Weenie that I am I went to bed with BOS at 33-got up to make sure AOB 32 was reached. Most of us just inland were AOB 32 from mid evening on last night. Low was 25 here. So now that BOS got there close to the average first 32 date we can check that box and move to first inch of snow.

Great work, Ray! Your effort and the countless hours preparing the forecast is much appreciated. Good luck!

Looks like BOS has a decent shot overnight. Down to 39 at 7pm obs.

Man that’s quite the look long range on gefs and eps.

A metaphor….

I remember the drifts in November 400 years before I was born…..

Certainly colder and a favorable pattern post the 3-5 day warm spell.

So I was reading Kevin’s posts about thanksgiving week and then looked at GEFS and realized they are cold that week.

KBOS with sleet mixed in hours ago. Does that count as the first or do we wait for snow? Edit-snow mix briefly earlier-I should have stayed up another hour.

Flip a coin or lean to ensembles. They seem to split the difference so above normal but not extreme nor long lasting.

Coolidge Corner that night.... https://photos.app.goo.gl/6ngx1achj1nWmnJi6