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weathafella

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  1. weathafella
    Which one. The old about to be retired about to trend strong at 18z or the new one now known as the para. At least Kevin can stop saying Fv3 at that point...
  2. weathafella
    I thought there was not much change and qpf and snow totals quite similar
  3. weathafella
    Eps is solid!
  4. weathafella
    Yeah Thursday morning may well have people saying wait-isn’t this supposed to miss us south? I believe monads dwelling folks are in that category
  5. weathafella
    Snows all day Thursday
  6. weathafella
    CCB time EMA on euro Thursday morning
  7. weathafella
    We were told that’s the low resolution map. Someone should post more ukmet details
  8. weathafella
    No. But euro/cmc/ukmet are vs GFS.
  9. weathafella
    50/50
  10. weathafella
    No 96 at 1003
  11. weathafella
    Oy vey-I suck
  12. weathafella
    Yes. What is the strength at 120?
  13. weathafella
    I don’t think it is given its progged mslp 24 hours later.
  14. weathafella
    Then again (and this time I’m serious), if it’s bombing in that location wheeeeee!
  15. weathafella
    My only issue with uncle is this: You’re my crazy drunk uncle and you give me 1003? I know you Brits tend to be understated but seriously?
  16. weathafella
    Also, GFS/GEFS are starting to correct back north. Expect 18z to be a lot bigger for SNE.
  17. weathafella
    No need to make changes. Pretty consistent signal for a crusher. GFS is on its own. Euro and cmc have been reasonably consistent. One important caveat-we’re still looking d4. So changes can happen closer in.
  18. weathafella
    Also, as you pointed out, GFS does well in a progressive pattern. However with a system that has blocking, you’d probably lean further away from it. But in the 0Z suite with the GFS being most suppressed one is reminded of countless storms over the years when the model shat in itself. By the way the GFS para which will be gfs soon is way way different at 0z. 12-18+ for SNE and cne.
  19. weathafella
    It was an amplified system. What was wrong were the snow maps and those are vendor driven. I bet if you ran surface and H5 you’d be surprised.
  20. weathafella
    It’s better to know the biases and weaknesses of each. Gfs has always had trouble with east coast cyclogenesis. Euro has amp bias and holding energy in the SW USA. But a basic rule of thumb is don’t lean on the outlier model.
  21. weathafella
    In what way was gfs better vs euro. And if you tell me one was better at d7 it doesn’t count.
  22. weathafella
    Also, regarding 0Z, gfs/GEFS are outliers vs the rest of the guidance. Just including the semi respectable models, cmc, euro vs gfs.
  23. weathafella
    When?
  24. weathafella
    Large swath of 12+ on the eps.
  25. weathafella
    EPS are the 51 member euro ensembles. They tend to outscore the others at least in part to the sheer number of perturbations.
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