weathafella

It’s part of winter. Just like dank misery mist is part of spring.

No it actually wouldn’t verbatim.

How is that ice? I can accept sleet but how is it ice? Are layers below 850 down to 925 warm but sub freezing at the surface? I’ll answer. No

Lots of snow for me.

I happily accept the euro op for the next 6 days.

We take the euro-and OT the entire week.

It’s ok-you don’t have to send one to me…

Definitely shorter residence of warmth and overall a colder look on the 0Z guidance so far.

I’m so glad I got old enough to not give a damn if all the snow melts or not or even if it doesn’t snow. Seems like some are bleeding out….

EPS essentially says we get a lot more favorable after next week.

It’s AI version is much better

Skynet following uncle—Tuesday colder with even Brett happy. Also much less lasting and amplitude of warmth thereafter.

Uncle could be drunk but it has a solid and more widespread system for Tuesday.

Very windy here but mostly in gusts-not really sustained.

The problem is that the next 1-2 weeks feature opportunities only when northern stream systems pass south of us bringing enough of the Canadian icebox to snow on SNE. Then said systems blow up in the Atlantic but don’t curl up closing the door on the cold and allowing warmth to return in relatively short order. I did see improvements in the 11-15 on last night’s eps so January should offer hope of it holds.

Hard to have any idea which side of the boundary we’ll be on. I don’t ever recall such volatility in the guidance.

Also, some of the torchy guidance has a Canadian high in a nice position. The warmth seems at least partially suspect. We’ll see.

AI looks much less torchy for gfs. Skynet has a nice borderline warning event on the 28th but you’re too far south verbatim.

Exactly! As events occur, deep learning should ultimately improve the results.

The thing about 2014-15 is that 100+ happened in a 6 week period. Absolutely unprecedented for coastal sne.

Winter finally ends April 17th…

Can you provide data to prove me wrong? Give me low first halves and final totals vs climo. Also, to clarify what you quoted-I want to be sure you understand that I’m saying a low snow first half correlates with a low snow winter.

Let’s hope uncle is drunk today….

AI GFS is better. However the more suppressed look of the op run is probably a good sign.

I don’t think the statistics on Nina Decembers mean anything especially with a totally unscientific sample size. Also, let’s say everyone is below normal through December and a whopper dumps 1-2 feet starting New Year’s Day afternoon-but the arbitrary cutoff says ratter. Silly. What’s perhaps more relevant about the statistic is that low snow in the first half of winter is often a good harbinger regardless of the enso state. Of course the notable exception is 2014-15 when BOS had single digits for the season in mid January and finished with their all timer at 110.6”