People posting progs for d14 and declaring them right isn’t helping. We’ll have some above normal temperatures for sure. A bigger concern to me is the dryness. A pattern change would fix that but we have to get there. 1993 had a long torch in December starting around the 2nd week with a snow event imbedded around mid month. That flipped right around Christmas as an apps runner deluged us on the 23rd. Post Christmas got cold and snowy and that pattern held for the duration.
Yeah they were similar but 93-94 had more snow and it was colder more consistently. 93-94 was torchy in December until Christmas when the hammer dropped for 2 months.
I’m actually looking forward to the warmth. No ice to slip on and comfy temperatures to walk in day and night. Gotta watch for ticks in the woods though.
Has that happened yet this season (flooding conus) despite low heights). Also, is there any guidance showing that?
week 3-6 of Monday’s weeklies:
if anything the January implication is split flow fun.
All the ensembles feature a really good Pacific 11-15. EPS is most aggressive with the SE ridge but definitely signs of a fun pattern post 12/20 on GEFS, GEPS, and EPS.