weathafella

Yeah the polio was a bad example. But the idea of perturbations is to see how far slight changes take the guidance. Since these slight errors are often seen on initialization then perhaps we should get a large sample. To me, if out of 51 you have 2 extreme outliers maybe they should be discarded. Statistically the median is a better representation of the ensemble product but I am not aware of median in any of the ens products. I know the operational models skill beyond d5 is pretty poor so a mix of ensembles should give more robust ideas but either way, it’s rare when the op locks in 7 days out and holds. We used to see it on the euro but I can’t remember the last time.

Except ensembles aren’t humans with “known knuckleheads”. Another way of putting it in 1953 as a kid is your healthiest friend died despite being vaccinated polio. Are the polio vaccines bad?

You know you’re getting old when guys nearing 50 are talking about their moms music and you remember it as an adult..

Hi Gene. Definitely winter iyby!

Yes. Let’s hope the train doesn’t get canceled.

In my case perception and reality are not in synch...no one in the upper mid Atlantic/northeast was above normal!

Nada.

I told you weenies to be patient to 1/5 and beyond. If that gets delayed we may want to start looking at futility numbers....

That cane was awful. I learned to navigate without it...

CC indicates mix line is along or just north of the pike right now. I’ll poke my head out when th inevitable need to pee arises around 7-8 AM before heading back to sleep. I’m not sure anything measurable happens.

Merry Christmas Howard!

Looking at GEPS,GEFS,EPS I see us transitioning out of this dogshit pattern around New Year’s Day give or take a day or 2. Now it’s not impossible that we’ll get something meaningful before then but to me the pattern looks great beyond around 1/5. Let’s hope it doesn’t get pushed back!

Well 8-9 days and the euro is a rain event but neither solution has merit one way or the other this far out. I’d be exited if we were 96 hours and the solution was stable.

Golden Temple still can bring it! We ended up going to the place in Putterham Circle which is walking distance from the house.

Howard! One of the originals! Hope the holidays are treating you well!

That was my take as well. Loved the guys with AKs trying to shoot the comet!

Nice picture tuna.

Yes!

Anyway I’m not trying to start something. It is icy over a coating now sublimated. Saw a fun Netflix movie and had a decent Chinese restaurant take out dinner today though.

I thought it was a weak case to refute forky’s map posted. It’s been above normal temperature with below normal snow. Doesn’t mean it’s NC.

His map seems correct. You’re certainly >3F this week no?

Too soon. Maybe post midnight?

That’s something to brag about in ME in late December?

I don’t think his post was climate change related.

32. Icy conditions abating as the rain back edge moves closer.