weathafella

So let’s harken back to the gtg at Funky Murphy’s in Worcester in early January 2015. I drove pickles to and back. The pattern was progged to change big time but the wx that day was snow eating foggy mild drizzle. There wasn’t much snow to eat but Worcester had a bit. BOS was way down on seasonal snow and futility was on the table-must have been well under 5 inches at that point. I pointedly asked Will what his best guestimate for BOS final seasonal total. Pickles can vouch for this. Will comes up with 53 inches. Pickles and I are talking about what a bold call that was on the ride home. Will was wrong. BOS ended up with 110 and change. Keep hope alive!

I doubt I breaches 30-31 before Sunday starting late tomorrow night

He looked at a gfs surface temperature prog which in these situations are always fraught

When I see a surface low jump east hundreds of miles in 3 hours I become skeptical

Well the luxury is everyone can adjust up or down tomorrow-still time for that.

Way too conservative imho.

It definitely kept good snows inside 495 going into the afternoon. Surprisingly so to me but seeing 986 as it passed east of BOS is an ok look to me.

Harvey will likely go 4-6/4-8 for Boston

RGEM looked just fine I thought especially for mby.

Too early for me to tell…

Where are you getting it?

There I was on a call while drooling over 3k.

To distill George’s post down to the reality factor-we are changing the pattern. Let’s see what happens.

The inability to consolidate mid level centers is a problem. If the 850 low were 75 miles further south we’d be doubling the qpf.

Nothing starts before 4AM. Most have the good stuff in by or just after 12z.

The meat in Boston is morning to around just past noon.

Yeah it would have been fun to have both of us on while the zonked NAM was coming out. I ended up turning off the light to sleep around 4:15AM. Got up around 10:45 and decided to get out of bed so I can break this crazy cycle and maybe turn the light off around 3-vs later than 4. I think we're good for 6+.

Eastern MA is ORH on east. Geographically makes sense.

So 12 hours ago it was toast. 6 hours ago yipee. Now a combination. Stop waffling with each model run! The 2 most consistent pieces of guidance over the past few days are RGEM and Euro. Also, 3k is worlds apart from 12k today on NAM. I'm feeling confident mpm uses his snowblower and I get 6+.

NAM gives all of SNE warning snows on the 6z runs. You could see it early on. Let's hope it's real. Time for me to turn it over to the day shift-I would be up in time for the 12z Euro...

NAM (6Z/5) coming in quite a bit more fun. Too bad I'm the only one up....

The site was down for 3 hours. Not much change to me on euro. Actually looking closer it's a bit east of 18Z. Not a lot of change.

Yeah sorry about that-forgot about tomorrow

It’s better than NAM. Gets 0.5 qpf up to the pike and you k ow there’ll be def.