weathafella

CMC with another crushing around the 15th. Anyone keeping score?

Not for me. 18+ is never anything to poo poo.

I kind of see your point. I got 18+ Boxing Day and I took the dog around midnight up to one of the highest hills. Snow was completely blown off of it despite very heavy falling snow. But blizzards with wind work the landscape like nothing else. It’s spectacular.

Quite the shift on gfs. Let’s see what tomorrow brings. Nothing is stable yet.

They’re open-saw them this past weekend but nice try albeit feeble.

I’m a mean bastard but I’m enjoying the suffering.

It’s going to take a while to flush out the current pattern-up to 2-3 weeks possibly.

Kevin is acting like a jilted lover. “Who cares what he/she thinks/I’m done work with this relationship!”

In upper air and surface but not In results.

Bringing us to near mid month. WTTTE

It’s gonna happen given the fact that I’ll be away.

Usually they will. Because the normal NAO has lower heights SE. But if the trough is too far west, the SE ridge pumps up and actually becomes part of the (no longer working) block. This in general rarely happens but it seems to happen this year. The GFS since the upgrade is pretty unstable-I'll give you that-but all the guidance has been unstable-but the GFS has had the wildest swings. The GEFS have actually seemed to be leading the way of late. You hate to see it....

The block is a block due to high H5 heights. If those heights merge with similar heights in the SE, it kind of encourages a stronger RNA and blocks cold and snow from getting here.

George-get ahold of yourself and try to remember what you've learned from being on these boards for the past 2-3 years. NAO is not be all end all. See last December for proof. GFS has performed better vs euro in recent weeks. Canadian is a shitty model period. qq omega implied the block would hook up with the SE ridge. He was correct in that regard. Eventually the block should orient to actually NOT allow storms to cut west but we're not there obviously. Keep your eye on the western US and hope for ridging. And as ScottN (coastalwx) mentioned a few days ago, orientation of the block in the north atlantic makes a difference.

"Chilled monkey brains..."

It’s fun to watch. Never have I seen models flip back and forth so frequently.

Also as a reminder….it’s December 5th. Almost all years feature 40s for highs, low 30s for lows here in sne.

How can it eat what isn’t there? Had a dusting of snow overnight-literally just a few flurries flying around.

Felt like winter in VT today. Low 30s when we left past noon and aob freezing to mid 30s until we reached the banana belt just north or MHT. We may need to return around the 19th and I suspect by then most if not all of VT will have snow otg.

I don’t think you were the target. We’re about to pick up our 23 year old at her place in Burlington VT for breakfast. I’m 76 and I’m thankful for the opportunity to retry parenting over age 50.

What-application of logic? What’s the world coming to!

In any case, a compromise between GEFS and eps yields a nice solution for snow.

6Z GEFS seem better vs 0z.

Walking the streets of Burlington VT-47 with squally rain at times.

Then again, George went 105 inches for BOS in Roger Smith’s thread. Hopefully he’s right but I’m hanging onto my money…