weathafella

GFS management of the H5 vortex north of ME is so different and therein lies the solution difference. GFS brings it over NNE and is slower to scoot it east vs other guidance. We'll keep an eye on this and see but I'm skeptical of that evolution given where the primary is starting. With all that said, one would think the GFS argues for a bigger solution on Sunday/Monday suppressing everything for a period afterwards. So if we get an upside surprise late weekend, consider the GFS as having a bit more validity.

Meanwhile cmc is George’s blizzard

A true blast from the past! I remember when my parents moved to FL in the 70s I went to visit and it was cold-50s for highs. Floridians in snorkel jackets.

I see Kevin’s point. Only in the past 10 years has the frequency of early December snows dropped it seems. With that said, I’ll sacrifice December for February if 2015 is in the cards.

In general, the rule of thumb I follow is to toss the far outlier. But at a week out if the other guidance trends towards it kudos. That block has to be really crazy to suppress the d7 event.

Last nights gfs but consensus is against that now. I’d rather a Miller B though.

EPS looked cold but more suppression potential. GEFS looked more fun in terms of potential snow. Both looked pretty nice though.

SST in March is probably 10F colder though

Yeah NNE people sitting and smiling…for a few hours anyway…

Less intense blocking would probably run next week’s system up the St Lawrence.

That seems to predominate today discarding gfs. Fortunately we’re 7 days out so plenty of time to make this great or terrible…lol.

No.

It’s pretty warm 925 to 2m.

That is on the table for interior sne but certainly less so for nne.

Given the rest of the guidance regarding end of next week-GFS appears to be a far outlier. So we know it's a SWFE and the only question is how much cold can hold. I know it's very early but this may be a near replica 15 years later. Dumbfounded...

GFS is a snowstorm next weekend. Still trending too....

You had a huge one I imagine because I did. I don’t care about pack-melt it quickly and start again is fine.

BDL 54.8 in 1/2011-solid!

February 2015 killed 2011. I mean BOS recorded 65 inches.

CMC with another crushing around the 15th. Anyone keeping score?

Not for me. 18+ is never anything to poo poo.

I kind of see your point. I got 18+ Boxing Day and I took the dog around midnight up to one of the highest hills. Snow was completely blown off of it despite very heavy falling snow. But blizzards with wind work the landscape like nothing else. It’s spectacular.

Quite the shift on gfs. Let’s see what tomorrow brings. Nothing is stable yet.

They’re open-saw them this past weekend but nice try albeit feeble.

I’m a mean bastard but I’m enjoying the suffering.