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blizzardof96

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Everything posted by blizzardof96

  1. blizzardof96
    I think we're gonna see accumulating snow from this...possibly significant if things can align correctly. This upper level pattern is generally favourable for our area, especially with the ridge bridge to the north of the upper low. Would like to see more consistency on guidance. A wave is expected to develop as a secondary low along the front, so models will probably struggle with the sfc low track. If track is up the spine of the apps it becomes slightly more challenging as well.
  2. blizzardof96
    Here's a look at the location of the energy from the time of 6z ECMWF initialization. I suspect model guidance will continue to struggle as the energy is embedded within a broad/complex jet streak out over the North Pacific. The energy is incident on the west coast by ~0z Tuesday.
  3. blizzardof96
    Interesting to note that the GFS OP is within the Northwest quadrant of the ensemble envelope
  4. blizzardof96
    Thank you. Nice to be back... hope to chime in from time to time this winter.
  5. blizzardof96
    For those curious, these are the >3” probs from the other two ensemble suites. 12z GEFS 12z GEPS
  6. blizzardof96
  7. blizzardof96
    12z CMC Ensemble
  8. blizzardof96
    NAM has the 12" line sneak through east end of the city (Toronto). I'll eat crow if this verifies.
  9. blizzardof96
    The weekend system is confusing for a few reasons: 1) Very slow movement of the upper low 2) Highly variable precipitation rates + banding 3) Marginal thermals, causing snowfall accumulations to be dependant on precip rates. Areas with stronger upward motion may win out.
  10. blizzardof96
    6z EPS looks pretty favourable for Toronto. It has 60-70% probability of >3".
  11. blizzardof96
    12z GEFS mean 700mb RH looks pretty decent from DTX--->YYZ
  12. blizzardof96
    Video I created which discusses the differences between the CMC and GFS:
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