luckyweather

always been a dream to go to Hokkaido and ski the famous japow

To be fair my anecdotal feeling is from this past year or two. Several of the severe threats in the spring/summer they didn’t discuss, warnings were late or non existent, etc. We have a handful of mission critical “properties” in the ILX cwa, tors are an annual threat and we get a hit or near hit pretty much every year. While I live in LOT I read the ilx afd’s daily during severe season, it’s just one of those things where you can just feel something is up. Maybe it was covid issues etc manifesting in the office operations, maybe I was being too critical. I don’t mean to be too hard on them/the guy, probably shouldn’t have said anything.

To be fair my anecdotal feeling is from this past year or two. Several of the severe threats in the spring/summer they didn’t discuss, warnings were late or non existent, etc. We have a handful of mission critical “properties” in the ILX cwa, tors are an annual threat and we get a hit or near hit pretty much every year. While I live in LOT I read the ilx afd’s daily during severe season, it’s just one of those things where you can just feel something is up. Maybe it was covid issues etc manifesting in the office operations, maybe I was being too critical. I don’t mean to be too hard on them/the guy, probably shouldn’t have said anything.

I keep looking for a zzzz or bank clock reference in the LOT afd’s but you haven’t thrown us a bone yet...

Not to be mean, not knowing the guy at all, but my mind immediately went to wondering if some new leadership may be the cure for that office.

a Lake Superior sized and shaped donut hole

Took me a while to get the science dialed in, I’ve spent the last 3 months laying down mostly ice, but I finally got it a few weeks ago and with last weeks cold was able to lay down a nice base with my homemade snow gun. The past few days are eating into it, but it looks to hold on for the most part until Christmas when the cold should give me a chance to refresh. Can’t just rely on ma nature for the fz precip. Pic is of some little jumps in the “terrain park” the kids have been jamming on.

Ma nature isn’t giving up the goods here in N IL / S WI, but she’s finally delivering a little cold. Granite Peak up in Wausau opened last week, now the S WI hills and even Chestnut in Galena IL are getting a base layer down, just about everybody is opening some limited terrain this weekend. Chairs spin at Alpine Valley tomorrow.

Outright trolling.

LOT AM discussion: Strong southerly flow ahead of the surface low has already advected 60 degree dewpoints into northern IL While heating will be limited by cloudy skies, cooling aloft will result in steepening midlevel lapse rates and modest instability (though impressive for our region in November in spite of MLCAPE holding mostly under 750 J/kg) is expected during the afternoon and early evening. The CAPE has some vertical extent to it, and has shown some increase over the past few days where it was appearing to be fairly minimal. Thunderstorms will first develop during the afternoon across northern MO into eastern IA. Deep layer flow will generally be parallel to the cold front, supporting a more linear storm-mode with line segments/QLCS development expected, with this line spreading eastward late this afternoon into north central IL, and into the Chicago metro toward evening. Combine these forcing mechanisms with the fact that we are coming out of a record breaking warm streak here in early November. We have been overperforming on temperatures, underperforming on clouds, and could see record highs yet again today. This pattern with a negative tilted trough, strong upper jet and associated low/mid level winds, strong cold front, and a deepening low to our northwest in the presence of a warm and modestly unstable airmass is an ominous one. With all this in mind, a slight risk for severe weather has been posted by the Storm Prediction Center. This is not unheard of in November, but not super common also. Damaging winds is the first concern The forecasted tornado risk area is fairly large in the 6z issuance from SPC. We will attempt to target some of the messaging for this, as there is likely a higher concern in northwest Illinois and into north central Illinois. This area is juxtaposed in an area with the best combination of forcing aloft, near the low track and approaching cold front that will overlay the narrow instability axis. Strong winds will still accompany the line of storms as it moves east, but instability will wane a bit with eastward extent suggesting some weakening as the line gets into northwest Indiana. Winds may become locally backed ahead of the low even though models are not depicting strong turning of the surface winds. Still, forecast soundings depict enlarged, curved hodographs given the strong low level wind fields. Speed shear is present along with some directional shear above the near surface layer, leading to 0-1 km SRH values greater than 250 m2/s2. As a result, a few tornadoes are possible.

They were who they were all along. This event just gave a gruesome way for them to visibly identify themselves. I hear “but muh liberties” and I translate that to “but muh right to be self centered”.

I’m not super hardcore into it but I do get out 1-2x per season on Lake Michigan usually near Sheboygan when the surf is good and I surf in a wetsuit. There are some guys who are super into it and have 7 mil wetsuits, surf 12 months out of the year, anytime there are waves. A crew went up to chase this storm on Superior and they are up there surfing it. You can find one of the more entertaining and hardcore dudes on Instagram, his handle is stokemachine’ This is the kind of stuff that makes me intensely proud to live here. Everybody has their own opinion but I think the Lakes are truly God’s country.

Thank you, I’m pretty stoked for the winter now that I don’t need so much to go right to have a snowpack (still need cold of course). Slope is mostly about 15 degrees but drops off at 40 degrees for about 20’ with a nice run out at the end. For however long we have decent snow we build a terrain park and the kids shred at home, they ski and snowboard so whatever they are feeling like at the moment. We also have a trail down the slope in the woods and that’s where my wife and I like to ski and play, getting too old for the rails and jumps. The plan is to start laying down a base and hold it as long as possible, ideally well into spring, making snow as long as I can. We are on a well and the pump and pressure tank are new so the water is “free”, the snow gun itself has specially engineered nozzles to put out very fine droplets. A standard (electric for lower noise) pressure washer gives the water flow oomph and the air compressor shoots a beam of compressed air straight up at the water as it exits the gun. This shreds and shears the droplets and so long as the wet bulb is 27 or under they crystallize into snowflakes. The only special ingredient is the snow gun itself, plans are on the web and you can build it for a few hundred $ in parts.

Made snow for the first time (ever) this morning. Have had some good sub freezing temps but the humidity has been through the roof. This morning got the wet bulb down below 27 and voila!

I saw that, was wondering what the impact will be. https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/arctic-sea-ice-fails-refreeze-late-october-setting-new-record-180976132/

That's okay. Rumbling made GHD what it was.

That’s a pretty incredible burn area for an unplanned uncontrolled burn. Climatologically, at least in epoch scale, tis the season. For the Holocene at large nearly every acre in the state averaged a fast moving burn every 3-5 years. From what I can tell most such fires were in the spring and fall during dry periods, usually sparked by lightning but sometimes by natives. Pretty rare post European settlement.

I think there’s a slice of people who take it seriously and are taking the key precautions to prevent spread, there’s a slice who are skeptical and begrudgingly take precautions when convenient or under social pressure but when nobody’s looking they do whatever, and then there’s a slice who either a) have somehow connected their rejection of the precautions / disbelief in the virus to their identity or B are just stubborn and it’s not an identity thing but a selfish small mindedness thing. I think all of the groups I listed above except the “identity” folks will take things a lot more seriously when an NYC style tent hospital has to go up in their Southern/Western/Midwestern city. KC is sounding the alarms now, ICU beds are also filling up there. Wisco is quickly spiraling and today’s rally should help amplify things in the south central part of the state at least. I think we are getting real close to the inevitable happening which I think will cause quite a few more people to change their mindset, maybe, optimistically, ahead of the potential Thanksgiving to New Years disaster that is looming. Chris Christie and his change in rhetoric as a result of him getting it firsthand I think is a nice example of what I think will happen when Joe Public sees the tent hospital and refrigerated morgue trucks along hospital lane in KC, Bismarck, Madison, etc. And if that doesn’t happen (the full ICUs), then those groups I listed are never going to take it seriously unless it hits them personally. But I think it’s happening. Now. Next 10 days. We will see.

I appreciate that you’ve converted your temp to F for us uncultured Americans ;-)

That’s where the “I’m moving to Canada” is rooted in. This has been eye opening for me, I didn’t know how many self centered and myopic people were all around me, and how pervasive such mindsets are all across the country. As Hoosier said, buckle up as I don’t know where this goes but I don’t think it goes there quietly and peacefully.

The US is a fantastic place to be born in and live in, comparatively to the rest of the planet in terms of overall well being. That said by really no meaningful measure is it the best. It’s 7th for GDP per capita, and it is #15 in one of the more data driven quality of life rankings. We have very productive land, abundant natural resources, a well educated workforce, and (arguably) a stable democratic government. None of those things should be taken for granted and fortunes can change quickly. The division and polarization plaguing the country right now I think is an existential threat to our stable democracy. I don’t have the answers but I hope our country makes it through this intact.

I got my snow gun set up today. Now to get my wet bulb temp calculating ability dialed in...

I just bought a snow gun. It needs 28 degrees to make snow. Hope I didn’t curse any chances at early season cold. https://backyardsnowstorm.com/store/Single-Train-Package-p111633528

No doubt it’s UHI and RFD is conveniently located to help genuinely to compare and contrast. That said, RFD proper is 5% the size of Chicago proper in terms of population (150k vs 2.7m). Assuming land area is somewhat linear then it really isn’t much of a comparison. This is a foolish, non science based comparison - putting that aside - with these figures you could say that for every 400k in population concentrated in an “area” the average temperature of that area will rise by 1 degree Fahrenheit, if building / land use is comparable (eg I would compare a million population third world city to a million population developed city as the amount of concrete will be wildly different). With that, RFD with its 150k population only raises temp by 1/3 of a degree F.

Pretty neat AR visualization of what the storm surge will look like in Lake Charles