luckyweather

Canada / Laurasia was well north of the equator by the Jurassic, (was equatorial more toward the Cambrian), not sure if palm guy is up on his paleogeology or was just a lucky guess, but as you said the planet was *hot* in the Jurassic with 4x the co2 of today from volcanism and there are palm fossils on the Canadian coasts from both the Jurassic even going into the Cretaceous. Got so hot in the early Jurassic the ocean died / the Jenkyns event. As an oil and gas guy, that’s when some of the rich deposits originate. When our ecosystems and biomes collapse and the palms return to Canada our decay will lay down a nice field of jet fuel for whatever life form takes over next in a few hundred million years.

Police picked up an alligator on Grant Park beach in South Milwaukee on Monday. Why do I get the sense this is @hardypalmguy’s doings? First the palms, then the flamingos, now this

Campi Flegrei supervolcano in Italy acting like it’s going to blow soon. Last week the US DoD told staff in the region to have a go bag ready at all times. Climate wise it could go either way / so much ash we keep a low latitude snowpack all year for a year, or flood the atmosphere with so much c02 the warming gets a hit of rocket fuel. Something to keep an eye on.

Found a new webcam in the western UP to watch for the onset of winter.

Not much of a start to Siberian snow cover season if one looks to such things to inform on winter expectations here.

22/23 was a D- winter for a cold/snow lover west of Chicago. Other than the cold blast (with no real snow) just before Christmas, it had no redeeming qualities. No sustained cold, no snowpack, no big storms. And no mega torches / Morch that would at least add a novelty factor. It’s my nightmare that 23/24 is a redux.

Shitposting from just about any other poster. But you lob a 3 letter forecast and it verifies. If we pay $99 per month can we get the sauce behind your forecasts?

Been missing your longer range thoughts recently. Come back to us.

This is like mostly a swag but I’m kind of prepared for a low snow winter, probably a few soul crushing (for a winter lover) cool / cold rainers, and the chance of a handful of heavy wet marginal thermals thundersnow featuring big dogs with a scary close rain/snow line when we tap some probably fleeting cold. At my and your latitude any sustained snow cover probably not gonna happen as we’ll probably see a ridiculous warmup or three or four / bike riding weather. Probably a bone dry 30-45 day stretch from Christmas to mid Feb. I’ve set my expectations, anything worse than that though and I’ll probably need to find a therapist. edit: also a better pattern will show up around 3/20 and it’ll stay cool til May 15. You’ll highlight all the misery all winter and troll the hell out of me and then I’ll get some penance as I watch you squirm when winter shows up in spring.

Looking like we could see a dip or two of lows in the 30s the holiday weekend but also looks like maybe just for 3-5 days and then back to average/above average. Way longer term I was kind of getting worried the climate train wreck would manifest in Siberia torching or something this fall. Not the greatest start but the Siberian snowpack did start building about two weeks ago so a total train wreck northern hemisphere year without a winter disaster scenario looks to be off the table.

how do you mute somebody on here

little throwback to when Chicago was near the equator

Skilling showing some love to the cold & snow lovers. I'm not Andy (my snowmaking rig is better). Won't be long.

Quick getaway for some MTB in Park City UT on Labor Day weekend, drove up to Big Cottonwood Canyon on Sunday night as a big storm was moving in. Was all rain while I was there but woke up the next morning to see they got their first measurable snow later that night. Flew home to find nothing but 70s and even a 60 in the point looking ahead. Life is good.

Ridge looking beastly. Seeming like this could end up being the headline heat event of the summer. Gonna scorch solid from Sunday to Thursday.

a tale of two mondays. got RFD at 61 on one and 105 the next.

Oshkosh WI

on cue starting to light up in the watch box in NC Iowa.

Got a little over an inch from late morning through early evening from the “pulsey splatty” (LOT AFD’s words, not mine) mini train that brought 5 distinct cells with heavy downpours NE of Rockford on the WI border.

a year ago for compare and contrast fun:

Anecdotally it does semi track with reality though. I’ve thought to myself a few times not too far north of RFD when Cyclone has posted a 90+, “hmm what a difference a hundred miles makes”.

Tornado warned cell about to cross the IL/WI state line into Mchenry County. My wife was driving to an event in Lake Geneva and heard the warning on old fashioned FM radio.

Same. Non measurable sprinkles northeast of Rockford over the past 3 days.

Passed through IL-94 a few hours ago from Dallas City, IL to Carthage, IL, 20 miles of apocalyptic destruction. Most trees were down, all homes had roof damage, many imploded grain bins, some grain bins crumpled in random fields and pushed off the road by equipment to re-open travel. Most electric poles laid down or split in half. Most corn pushed down flat. I’m not talking about a mile stretch, the entire 20 mile route was total destruction. Seems pretty certain extremely strong winds were present at the surface as the derecho pushed through that area.

N. IL truly has been a rainless paradise. I haven't been watching the temp grids too much but between your reports and Cyclone's reports west of me, I can deduce we've also been in a pretty sweet spot in the gradient here in N. Central IL. The most pleasant spring in my lifetime. Farmers likely not seeing the beauty in it. This is the slowest start to corn here I've ever seen. Most years the old "knee high by the 4th of July" has been more like "knee high by the 4th of June". Nothing knee high here yet, some late planted fields have barely emerged.