WEATHER53

About 6 hours before onset.

Honestly that talk like models showing 0-30” and an admission that the best science just has no real idea and won’t . I’m glad they admitted this .

Pointing toward cape may

I’m just to this one at 105 and that’s 15 hours at 0.5-.75” per hour

That high is near perfection

Last night it was game over and late this afternoon it’s over a foot. This waffling CAB will continue and in this day and age we really don’t have an 80% or better likelihood until about 6 hours before onset. I too do enjoy looking at the massive numbers but it’s not a forecast and is an example of 30-40 outcomes each of which have a 3% chance of occurring. I think increased Ai input with analog basing will improve this random, patchy example giving . We pretty much all know what Can happen, how about what is Most Likely To Hsppen?

Spell the title correctly or it’s a curse

Random pop out of sun as I’m at 44 and BWI 43 while Andrews is 55.

So from 0-10” once again which will score a confirmation. The hope for AI is that there is some historical analog data in it of set ups and outcomes. Pretending it’s all math and physics is why we have all this erratic behavior. Low pressure systems around mid Atlantic in winter are just too difficult for conventional models. AI and outcome analog data is the proof in the pudding and hope for the future

Don’t know what king model showed but differences this time is whether or not each one of the models each run shows that high to our north.Yes=Snow

Yes. Part of what helped 2026 was three -20/-21 values and especially its “mildest” day was -12 or -14 . All the others tended to have 1 or 2 single digit minuses

With commentary . This is for DCA since the station began there and does not include Dec 1989 which was even greater below normal due to time of year but not as bitter cold daily temps Gold-1994 with an incredible-140 for 7 days 1/15-1/21 Silver- 2026 with a -121 1/24-1/30 Bronze-1982 with -117 and a 10 day of -178 and a one day -33 departure 1:11-1/17 4th-1977 at -108 but only 3 days were at or above normal that month with 0,1,2 as the + departures. Fell below freezing every day of the month im looking at a few more but these well may be the toppers

Not in a position to do that and then tell others to get over it

The ride generally isn’t good and often does not arrive at the destination. But at times the bumpy fitful ride ends up at a Great location

MJO is but one possible component among many and a new signal gets introduced every year. Plus the effects have changed. Nino and Nina used to be very consistent predictors for 50 years but less so now. AO/NAO still very vital but the rest are largely research in progress

Congrats on that. I made All State band my senior year in HS and it’s real tough competition

Winds DC 15-20 gusting to 35

Analog time frame day a Go and notice how the cold air is coming down from NY State and PA and not rolling off Maine nor plunging down thru ND/SD and rolling eastward where timing of cold air can be a problem

The 23-25th is real . Analogs say so. They got the early Dec one, wrong about 12/22-24 one , mostly got snowcrete correct. Blows the models away .

That date is my last analog date so let’s buckle up. I like the angle of the cold

Wasn’t that the huge El Niño in 98 and things do seem different since about then ?

I grew up in the golden era of 1958-71 and to my memory we skated on the pond every winter except two . Sledded every one at some point Im pretty sure

From 54 to 34 and dew does not rise

I have wondered that if the Gulf Stream has indeed weakened, could that be less attractive now to potential low pressures to move along Atlantic coastline miller A style?

Not really The super fine lines, thread the needle, yadda yadda is the formula for 100 presentation which radically change every 6 hours.