WEATHER53

Models don’t matter. A moderate to strong low like that will send waa moisture our way. They almost always do and it’s the wrong idea from the models that it won't this time. What that means afterward I can’t say but there will be a fast onset of snow/sleet for DC of steady-moderate duration and intensity and then what happens next is what happens next

Me 7 Springs Sun-Wed so gonna be fun.

I think all the solutions from 0.5” for DC to 8” have been shown in last 12 hours so cover all bases parameter requirement has been fulfilled.

Couple years ago Christmas Eve it was 70 at midnight not too far away now at 66.

That looks like -20 to possibly -30 850’s for ski resorts if MD/PA?

I think it was more like 12/13 but still bitter cold

Most memorable from 94 was the day it was 11 at 11am and 1 at 5pm, overnight low record tying (for me) -6.

I think for DC the very coldest run is 1/6-1/15

When it’s rough it’s always shown as better looking 10+ days until 10+ gets here and then it’s another 10+. Been that way for 15+ years on weather boards so kinda odd that we even hold hope or pay attention anymore.

Middle of afternoon 93 was a world Ive not seen before or since.

To me this person is saying the much ballyhooed SSW is not the player it has been touted to be starting 5/10 years ago. Even the Enso does not have the predictability it used to. Many of these indexes, with seemingly a new one being rolled out Every year, are really just an attempt to put a definition on the undefinable longer range weather patterns and responses. Yes we know negative NAo and AO is important but the rest of it all is largely variable and/or unproven. Models in the medium to longer range really Do Not predict weather but rather give varying examples of it. The best thing for mid Atlantic people to try and pin down is where is the cold air and can or how does it get here.

Yes thanks

Our daughters babies came we are the grandparents of twins, girl and boy.

Right now think my analogs look very good into, and I think thru,December. Some good long rangers had mid Atlantic shifting mild again after 15-19Th Nov and I don’t see that, in fact the opposite. i want to comment on our method of choosing specific occurrent weather from the March into Sept time frame of the year preceding the winter for the long range we issue in Sept. We have believed since 1980 that this period sets the tone for the winter. The trick is what occurrences do you emphasize the most or least. Also, we do not believe nor state that a, just as an example, very cool June followed by a very dry July and August CAUSES a cold but not very snowy winter but we do say that if 80% of the time since 1945 that was the winter outcome then that probably is the foundation of the outlook and we compare, or perhaps contrast, that with other events of the March-Sept time period to complete the outlook. i know I am a distinct minority but I think all of the indexes are mainly alphabet soup, many just a decade or so in existence, largely unproven. I think the pattern causes them and they not the pattern but what does cause the pattern is still Gods mystery. Now, high pressure does have to be in the right place to deliver the cold so there are some requirements. I think the indexes are the seasoning on the meat but not the meat. Any question please just ask.

Your write up was so good. Technical enough for us and a more general way of explaining also that public will understand.

So Isotherm and Matt go mild with around average snow, I agree with snow but think colder.

Good stuff you all

BWI:16.5 DCA:13 IAD:19 RIC:8.2 Tie SBY:10.6

14 total error is really good I think I had like 35

I think things are underway, First the shift to wet in October and now temps looking colder. Pattern changes and can last 2/3 months around DC which fits with my outlook

Thank you so much Different than mine temp wise but neither of us think much snow.

38 here for low

Where is the chart? Thanks

I like to stick with DCA as the temp comparative even with it flaws. Reason is start using records from before then and it’s different locations and vastly different population and development Some of this record heat has 86 characteristics and that 87 was The winter it snowed every time there was a chance.

Very early October heat matches well to the cold Dec and Jan, mild Feb. decent snow season analogs.