WEATHER53

NWS new radar is utterly awful. Took a fully functioning entity and made it a muddy mess that won’t load and the national map is a useless mess cluttered with individual radar site buttons that don’t load and delete the previously selected site and blot out the National 

See this is who is in charge of models also. Trying to be too precise and making a potential previously functioning tool almost useless. 

We wait and watch. Radar WV and satellites in control now. Models a mishmash of every form of precip with low confidence forecasts of 2-10” over last 24 hours. 

BC almost had me going yesterday with the “we would be lost  without models after 24 hours”

Over suppression and should relax 

We usually get one and miss one and there’s a 20 mile swatch that gets the overlap 

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Trixie's posts never disappear.  And mine do .

This place has become alot less fun for me . Alot of censorship and favoritism here .

I brought it over here too and I won’t mess   up weather section .

lose to probably doesn’t want me as an “ally “ but got two of us basically saying same thing.

Belongs in banter and not weather

Yes, imperious and condescending does piss me off. 

Post it and they will come. 

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Seemed like a attack to me . I sure wouldn't have said that to u but I'm moving on.

Again why are u saying these 100 words to me after an apology?

We don’t want to turn this into a mess but nice to see someone else noticing. 

28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Very cold at the surface too. Unusual. A glacier on top of whatever fall thurs/fri would be pretty awesome. I love that stuff

35 degree highs will melt 4” snow in 2 days but those glacial packs two or three times as long!

57 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This is all because we are pushing for a level of detail at ranges that NWP is not capable of giving yet.  It is getting MUCH better.  Day 5 forecasts are more accurate then day 3 was not that long ago.  But when I first started doing this no one took day 5 or even day 3 seriously in terms of gleaning very meso scale specific details.  Trying to nail the exact rain snow line to within 20 miles, or the exact location of the northern fringe of precip with a synoptic wave.  But now we start trying to do that at day 5 or even longer range.  That is crazy and while the guidance has gotten better, not at the same rate as our ridiculous expectations.  

We don’t have ridiculous expectations. We do seek competency.  You are absolutely right and glad to hear you say it-The Models  Try To Do Too Much.

So, do less  or do different 

Want nice atmosphere  when Obs time starts so will leave it at that. But, when things slow down will release a thread with detailed, rational and verified wholesale different method of modeling. I don’t just bitch, I offer suggestions and possible solutions. 

It’s not”drying up” because it does not predict but rather right now is covering the drier example base. 6 and 12 hours from now another example will be given 

What is start time?

44 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

How do people still take him seriously? Honestly I’m not bashing him but he is so irresponsibly early/bullish with his calls. Every. Single. Time. His record is appalling if you take him for his word 3-5 days out. 

He deserves credit because he is the best discusser  I know of as to what the combined elements of a big snowstorm need to be for our area. 

He is   considerably less skilled in prediction of what an upcoming system will turn out to be and produce. 

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Thanks and the extreme cold has been pushed back. Delayed but not denied is generally a disaster for snow but not as much for very cold surges although it’s a neutral sign at best. Looks like rollover cold also where it plunges  into Ohio Valley and west and then rolls over mountains and onto  us in a modified state as opposed to strong cold which plunges directly down upon  us from NY State and PA .

How cold is max cold period?

1 hour ago, Yeoman said:

It snowed at 37 degrees in my backyard today

Agree and 35 here and heavy 1”ph stuff but around noon and just could not accumulate except on old snow 

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That wasn't the day before.  The storm started THAT DAY...and it flipped to snow before midnight and DCA recorded a trace.  That was the day the storm started just as much, even moreso as yesterday counts for today's storm!

87 Veterans Day is what I was responding to and not Feb.

DCA hit 48 Feb 87 that day and most Obs were in mid 40’s for highs, Yesterday 50-52.

Veterans Day was low 60’s day before, then cold front and around 40 at dawn VD but cold air kept pressing in and became snow around noon . DCA and me got the same, 11”. 

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That wasn't the day before.  The storm started THAT DAY...and it flipped to snow before midnight and DCA recorded a trace.  That was the day the storm started just as much, even moreso as yesterday counts for today's storm!

If you think you are disputing my overall assertions with one 34 year old example you are sadly mistaken and I wont confirm the scenario you are offering up, Stick with 6 paragraph model worship and always ignore opportunity to learn from situational outcomes. 

11 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

the issue with this storm was we were still in the mid 40s basically as the precip was arriving overnight.

It’s called too warm of precedent air mass which is what I repeatedly referenced with much rebuke of “models say plenty cold aloft”

9 minutes ago, chris21 said:

Feb 87... was one

That’s a good spot and the only one that I too could remember . There are a few exceptions to the 48 day of rule and all qualified that a cold front did push thru after the 48+ and before onset. That did not happen yesterday and the airmass could not support significant snow around DC proper. Silver Spring Alexandria and Rockville arent Clarksburg . Again good spot on 1987 

52 minutes ago, Negnao said:

Veterans Day 87 was 63 the day before, wasn’t it?

Not talking about the day before but rather day of.  87 started off around 40 at sunrise.

My forecasts of problems around and within 15-20 miles of DC stemmed from this analog method

NEVER since 1975 has my station nor DCA EVER received 4” of more of snow when the daytime temperatures before the even have hit or exceeded 48F. Such an air mass has never supported that amount of snow. A few (3/4) had instances where a cold front moved thru after the 48 was hit or exceeded but that was Not the case in this situation 

Heavy snow, 1”ph rate, but still can’t overcome radience at 34.2F and prime  time daylight.

snowboard 1.25” , all grassy areas covered, sidewalks and street wet. 

The temperature concerns I expressed all day and night yesterday have come true. Later I will share the 50 year old analog method that once again has verified .

11am Obs.  35.4F.  Moderate snow and rain mix, mostly wet snow, 0.75”  accumulation on board 

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’ve always felt that heavy convection to the south can rob some of the precip to the north. 

Correct

Big bust way back I think 80’s was precip was rushing up toward us through so VA and long line of thunderstorms formed west to east across GA and north FL and shut it down the end. I think it was NWS Corey I was talking with as this just fell apart. Down the road seen it half dozen more so not frequent, if they fire up south to north then dampening effect not as great 

39/25 here. That can do it. Unless it’s an irregular hourly Annapolis may be out already  at 40/32,