WEATHER53

35 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Little faster onset and deeper cad and we get warning level before the rain does the shoveling for us. It not a big step to morph this into a textbook cad setup

Get this high 150-200 miles to west and we are golden.

56 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Run that primary twds OH and then pop the secondary off the Delmarva and many could be back on the snowboard. Just gotta hope the primary doesn’t make it all the way to OH or we are toast. 

It won’t make it past extreme  southern KY

We are back to OK again as predicted starting Sunday. I don’t think the Tuesday event cuts but rather snugs up against western side of mountains along WV/Va border and we get yet another long mostly light-moderate overrunning event.

It’s 37 outside and after 2 day mild up I still have frozen on the fully shaded patio. Granular water slush that refreezes and small shovel chunks.

That ground got so cold  and frozen down to what?-a foot?-I don’t know but deeper than normal and still radiating like crazy.

By Sunday we are back in winter business with one more arctic surge which will discuss later 

On 9/24/2018 at 1:45 PM, WEATHER53 said:

KA-

Temps-above average, ranging +1 to +2 monthly

snowfall-below average, 12” at DCA

This is actually not bad from him 2016-17 he went 5” and last year 8” and in 2016-17 went +5 on temps for two out of three months 

I don’t have the analogs yet 

 

 

Weather 53 Outlook

Temps

Dec:0 to +1

Jan:-2.5

Feb:0 to -1

Snowfall: 15” at DCA and 18-22 for IAD, BWI.

10-1/18-Neant  to have written  that think we will turn dry for Oct and Nov then back to above average for DJF.

My primary analog years are 1964-65 and 1969-70. I found the analog years unusually easy to pick

Keith and I are pretty far apart on temps and rather close  for snowfall 

 

KA very good on temps for first two months and near right on mark for snow.  My temp call poor for Jan but Ok for Dec and snow call very good so far 

27 minutes ago, TJ3 said:

It seems like DT is going to give the -NAO one more shot after warm up. If another false alarm, winter is ending early. 

Winter does not continue nor end based on WxRisk. Maybe you all can learn to assess situations yourself rather than rely on media sorts 

It’s been a good winter. I stated in our  long range outlook update in late November that the dye was cast for a lot of cutters. That has been the case but we have gotten good cold shots on the return flow as they depart and then solid highs setting up in right place where we have had two 10 hour plus events. What has prevented the winter from being even better is that those strong highs settle southeastward instead of moving off Maine and we get very mild.  We’ve been getting solid cold shots since early November and we have more to come.

3 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

Travel narrative:

Left DC at noon with 1.3”

encountered heavy snow on Kent Island to Easton and measured 3” in Easton. Most highway driving 45-50. Temperatures ranged 18-22.

Got to Dalisbury 10 minutes ago, 0.5” and 26

hpw much around DC?

Left Salisbury 530, 23F and got into light snow in Seaford and now moderate snow in Harrington, 2.5” and 19F

Travel narrative:

Left DC at noon with 1.3”

encountered heavy snow on Kent Island to Easton and measured 3” in Easton. Most highway driving 45-50. Temperatures ranged 18-22.

Got to Dalisbury 10 minutes ago, 0.5” and 26

hpw much around DC?

1.3”

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

SN+ 8” with 1.5” in the last hour.

Picture as I went outside to get some more wood for the fire.

Don’t get swallowed by a drift nor et by a bear pilgrim!

29 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Ok I have limited experience with this. Why are the roads this bad right now? I’ve been here for 3 years and never skidded once, including the sleet bomb. But for this 0.5” pixie dust there are cars in ditches.

0.25 or so gets squished, the water squeezes out, film of slick  ice. Very bad

with an inch there is enough granular left after  the compression so that it’s not a slick  thin film of frozen 

0.75”, steady light to very light snow, 18F

Nailed it with my forecast last night that this was not going to be  mostly to  our north. Boundary and 500-700mb depictions  had precip mass moving right toward us with wind vectors and isobars moving precipitation mass  along the rails and right towards us 

First clouds now here and temp up to 14.

4 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

He probably thinks it’s headed for hattaras and gonna pull a jan 25 2000

Nope. Right over top of us with 9-12 hours of 0.25ph. 

My big question is temps from 11am until it end. We don’t have a sun issue but sun is different than 2-4 weeks ago. So at 28+ the very light snow just won’t accumulate. But, if we are 25/26 I think it overcomes and would get an inch in that time frame.

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

6 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

That nice blob in Ohio is moving e-ese.  This one has to be watched.

Thanks for letting us know we might be getting snow

More than is being thought and you will be all cheerful and smiley!

That nice blob in Ohio is moving e-ese.  This one has to be watched.

We look to be 85% where the snow gets made but it’s so cold every flake accumulates. This might last 9-12 hours. 

0.25 to 0.5 would be really bad because it gets compacted, water squeezed out, instant ice slick

1” is a lot less hazardous because there is some granular material remaining when  run over by a car.

19.5 here in shade and 31 in direct sun.

I think this will be further south than currently forecasted  and some of the upper air flow across eastern Texas is  from the gulf and makes a sharp right in Oklahoma and seems to want to mingle.

Overnight low of 5 and currently 16

7.7