WEATHER53

A confirmation analog we like is very late Oct coastal crawlers. Few exceptions but usually not a good sign for winter. Look clear this year 

On 10/21/2019 at 5:34 PM, Prestige Worldwide said:

Yesterday’s rainfall in our area 

It looks like a snow map.

38 here for low

2 hours ago, wxdude64 said:

Snowing at the 'Shoe!

http://www.resortcams.com/webcams/snowshoe-boathouse/

Looks like 1” on grass now 

4 hours ago, Isotherm said:

 

Thanks, @WEATHER53. Should be in approximately 2-3 weeks.

I did mine over in mid Atlantic so along with where else  you put yours could you put yours in that thread?

1.2” here and first time more than 0.25 since late August 

Yes. Very good again.

When is your winter?

Where is the chart?

Thanks 

I like to stick with DCA as the temp comparative even with it flaws. Reason is start using records from before then and it’s different locations and vastly different population and development 

Some of this record heat has 86 characteristics and that 87 was The winter it snowed every time there was a chance.  

Amazing high heat today. Sun definitely weaker but 97+ is Hot

Wonder  when last time all 3 set heat record in Oct is?

Very early October heat matches well to the cold Dec and Jan, mild Feb. decent snow season analogs.

On 9/26/2019 at 9:12 AM, PrinceFrederickWx said:

I’m curious as to how you pick analogs, as those range from strong La Nina to weak El Nino. It doesn’t seem like you weight ENSO much- what would you say are the most important factors in making your forecast?

Certain occurrent weather from about March thru August.  Once that is obtained we “flavor” that with the Enso but we do not start with the Enso as determinant 

How about a combo top 15 from winter and summer contests?

10 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

It’s that time again, despite the fact #endlesssummer2019 is still in full swing. 

 

You are forecasting the first day the temperature reaches 32F at BWI, IAD, DCA, and RIC.  Tiebreaker is cumulative October precipitation at all 4 of those airports (I.e., one number).

This thread will lock when October starts so you have a week!

Happy freezing! 

BWI 11/10

IAD 11/3

DCA 11/24

RIC 11/17

Rainfall 8”

Not a bad winter for cold and snow lovers

Dec: -2 to -3

Jan:-3 to -5

Feb :+2 to +4

Overall: -1 to -1.5

Snowfall

DCA:12-16”

Suburbs:15-20”

Analog years

1955(56), 1960(61), 1999(2000), 2003(04), 2010(11), 2018(19)

i think it’s around average or slightly mild thru  mid December and then becomes very cold thru late January before a dramatic flip to milder temps thru February.

Looking  forward to reading  other outlooks 

Here come the inflow clouds, breezy and getting cooler.

34 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

 

I am not sure precisely what is included in this index; however, while it may be a fine proxy for ENSO specifically, I do not believe it adequately considers other pertinent variables, such as the GWO and associated torque variations, which would provide a more veracious macroscale view in my opinion. At several points on that graph in which neutral or Nino is depicted, other indicators such as GWO cycling and tropical forcing ostensibly indicated a Nina esque atmospheric regime. Again, it may be fine for the purposes which it is designed for, but I personally would not rely upon it as the most accurate indicator of the macroscale atmospheric status.

I think the ENSO results are Not as “in stone” determinant as we thought back 2003-2013. You had people swearing  and livid that analogs could not be used because a referenced year was a weak Nina and the upcoming year looked to be weak Nino. I don’t know and I don’t think anybody really does what is the deciding factor. I do know that for the DC area if the cold air does not set up almost perfectly then snow is hard to come by but what controls and dictates that is up to debate and discovery.

1 hour ago, Isotherm said:

 

KA was one of the few in the already small long range community who produced consistent results. I did not initiate my long range forecasting career as early as you, KA, or Matt. However, I began in 2006, and have a 80.0% success rate [including summer/winter outlooks, 25 outlooks total sample size]. As per usual, I intend to issue a winter outlook again this autumn. Will look forward to reading yours.

Yeah I think you are next in line behind Matt and Keith but very close and your stats suggest even better. I know I always value yours and look forward to it.

KA has retired from the long range forecasts. Other than Matt Ross nobody had a lengthy track record like that, approaching 70% and to my record keeping since 1980 there were just 4 times where he missed on both snowfall and temps with 22 double hits and just the four mentioned double misses.

i will be still doing mine and I’m about 62/63% but not as good as he or Matt.

NWS in the overall does an adequate job. It may be a C or B- but they don’t fail.  I don’t evaluate them as if they are the only source. I don’t think they have to be “the very best” source either. They serve the public. They may not serve us well enough but we have sharper needs and info.

Well thank goodness Josh is OK.

i wonder if this will effect his chase enthusiasm.

Remember  that video of him wading around in a lobby pushing some people on a mattress?

We got to have a get together for him around DC

1 hour ago, SENC said:

Yes, It was Me, I'm guilty..

I STILL maintain Michael was at MOST a Cat 3..

Same with Dorian..

NOP 180+ mph Winds either..

I watched enough (LIVE) video TO KNOW I was looking at Cat2 or 3 Winds..

IN ADDITION to the very MANY Canes I've lived and experienced..

 

Marsh Harbor, Bahamas experienced STORM Surge causing MOST of the Damage.. 

The picture posted in the main thread, Looks, in MY experienced observations are from poorly construct SHACKS.. Noticed *well built* building(s) survived, with little to NO Damage, re: roofs are still intact..

Just My experienced opinion.. 

180+MPH wind(s) you would have a SAND BAR left behind, Palm tress that are just Trunks, (No palm fronds attached).. 

If Dorian was "truly" a Cat 5.. Marsh Harbor would look like this..  

Well it does look like that and the Palm leaves that did not get blown off were  likely under water 

Appears according to NWS radar to be 4” in one hour in several metro locations 

Anybody that gets two zeros, Bravo

No zeros at IAD.

Some of you in VA got over  3”?