WEATHER53

Where is the best place to look at 500mbmaps and 500mb forecasts without having to pay?

Thanks 

Right now think my analogs look very good into, and I think thru,December. Some good long rangers had mid Atlantic shifting mild again after 15-19Th Nov and I don’t see that, in fact the opposite.

i want to comment on our method of choosing specific occurrent weather from the March into Sept time frame of the year preceding the winter for the long range we issue in Sept. We have believed since 1980 that this period sets the tone for the winter. The trick is what occurrences do you emphasize the most or least. Also, we do not believe nor state that a, just as an example, very cool June followed by a very dry July and August CAUSES a cold but not very snowy winter but we do say that if 80% of the time since 1945 that was the winter outcome  then  that probably is the foundation of the outlook and we compare, or perhaps contrast, that with other events of the March-Sept time period to complete the outlook.

i know I am a distinct minority but I think all of the indexes are mainly alphabet soup, many just a decade or so in existence, largely unproven.  I think the pattern causes them and they not the pattern but what does cause the pattern  is still Gods mystery. Now, high pressure does have to be in the right place to deliver the cold so there are some requirements. I think the indexes are the seasoning on the meat but not the meat.

Any question please just ask.

14 hours ago, poolz1 said:

Posted this in the wrong thread....moving to this one.

For all the peeps in here that have memories like an elephant....any of these dates interesting?  

76 and 84 are there and what followed was epic persistent cold 77 and frigid inauguration 85

That is a long duration high pressure up there with open water and cats and dogs living together.

11 hours ago, Deck Pic said:

Yeah. Your outlook is interesting and no doubt could come to fruition. I do think we’ll see quite a bit of blocking this winter, so my warmth could be overdone. 

Your write up was so good. Technical enough for us and a more  general way of explaining also that public will understand.

So Isotherm and Matt go mild with around average snow, I agree with snow but think colder.

5 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

 

1912 is one of coldest Jan on record and 1963 one of coldest Dec on record.

High of 38, low of 23

Good stuff you all 

28.5 at midnight. Coldest for time this season.

Some good and very cold winter analogs showing up 3 days either side of Nov 12th. 1933, 1995, 1993, 1986 and the record cold around 12th for those years

15 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Meanwhile, in Richmond! 

 

Is that the Elks golf course and Hello MidLo snow ho!

I like everything so far since early October

Another frontal blast thru Tuesday and maybe even moisture still here after cold air arrives. Would like to see that for couple months.

BWI:16.5

DCA:13

IAD:19

RIC:8.2

Tie SBY:10.6

14 total error is really good

I think I had like 35

It is so loud out back in summer with the bugs screeching .  Dead silent now.

33.5 at midnight, coldest at that time this season by 5 degrees 

I think things are underway, First the shift to wet in October and now  temps looking colder. Pattern changes and can last 2/3 months around DC which fits with my outlook 

On 11/6/2019 at 7:17 PM, Isotherm said:

My outlook can be read here:

[also posted on the main board]

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

Thank you so much

Different than mine temp wise but neither of us think much snow.

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

We think alike lol. 

TUG HILL BABY !!!!!!

We were in Tug Hill during Great Feb 07 lake effect outbreak!

Superior event in terms of wind, rainfall and temp drop

stating otherwise is attention whore trolling.

40 mph gusts are back 

30 degree drop in 5 hours

77 to 47 at 1:30am

Mega Front

25 drop in 3 hours from 77 to 52 at 11:30

Max gust here to 44 and 1.5” rain so far. Dynamic front, 14 degree drop in 45 minutes. It was 77 when my grandson went out, I don’t remember a warmer  one. Glad the kids got their time in before  what was an impressive very late October squall line but probably overhyped tornado talk