Much ballyhooed “winter over” torch comprised of 4 days with 7,8,9 plus departures in a month with six double digit negatives and 22 of the 31 days negative values
This is true. Miller As which used to occur 50% of the time and models did well with are about 15% now and models always were mostly helpless with Bs for DC area. Bs have 12 hour prediction of off Hatteras and next presentation over Pittsburgh and repeat cycle everywhere in between.
They never have really gotten the idea that most Bs have precip shield too far NE of DC. So we continue to get a lot of sample and example but zero consistency for any predictions
57 at 12 noon and 32 11 hours later so 12 hour 25+ degree drop mega front
i may have a 20 year furniture toss on back patio . Something big sustained as one is upright stil but moved 6 feet and another tossed about 10 and more scatter
Just gotta avoid the infamous delay pattern onset . Right now it looks like 1/7-1/10. If that starts to become 1/15 then 1/20 then we are underway with a problem once again
Looks like you all do good with this so that’s great for Holiday time. My grand children are old enough to sled finally and Santa delivered, You all have fun with yours!
Friday discussion
High pressure 1030 moves from currently well nw of North Dakota to along NY State/VT border Friday morning. A low ends up almost stalled along TN/KY/WV/VA intersections throwing precip our way. Don’t think high will be east of Maine at that time .
i won’t be changing this idea a half dozen times and let’s see how close it is come 12 noon Friday
The individual Mets do what they are instructed to and it’s not them causing the problems. The institution of NOAA has created model systems with 300 different panels over a 2 day period
it’s a self preserving methodology where they can’t be incorrect The noble government worker thing is debatable. Been through it before here with the defend the dealer sort of thing
Man and just 5 days ago our science tools had DC near 70
Let’s face it. NOAA is No Different than any other government organization-seeking to preserve itself with actual outcome of services secondary at best
Cover all bases and claim verification come crunch time .. One prominent poster here recently stated he has drastically changed his involvement with models . We all should and apply whatever pressures you can
Yeah this is our torch day of low to mid 50’s totaling one in what was projected as a string of 60’s+. So far in torch week I’m at -0.5 average before today . The myopia and false torch declarations is part of why our viewership is 1/10th of what it once was