WEATHER53

What cracks me up is the myth of models as a viable forecasting tool or method for mid Atlantic winter low pressures. I think we have been through now its mandatory cover all bases for continued funding mode . What is still in our corner though is this cold air plunge does appear to want to set off a low from down south to along the coast. Thats way better for us than a phasing job.

Is that gulf moisture trying to connect to pacific ?

Wow that’s an ages old remembrance of cold air plunging and something gets going around tx/la and moves right toward us like that purple is pointing to

Yes. An already organized modest low pressure around Atlanta moving northeast ward Does Not have to do anything. It already exists and maybe can even intensify as it moves into our area’s hopefully cold air. Not much mechanics there.

A range of 27-67 can be anticipated as examples

Well they continue to try and do things they can’t do. In Nina’s they can’t provide accurate scientific data and is mostly 300 samples of examples. I think as they have tried to increase their resolution , that’s gotten worse. Northern and southern stream cooperation along with transfers from west of applchns to off the coast just too many gears and parts to predict. Rainstorm already effecting Atlanta and moving northeast ward is mostly already in place and easy. A’s work for us And models and they seem to be gone lately Where I draw heat is pointing this out . Frankly I can’t understand the defensiveness. I guess unlike many I come here for information on what will most likely happen with some attention paid to consistency. . Every single example of what has a 5% chance of occurring and covering every outcome imaginable just is not exciting for me and in fact discouraging .

Beautifully stated and true.

It’s not that winter is over. It’s just simply that models have gotten way worse in handling Nina winters with the low pressure placements and movement and even if any low forms at all. They never really could handle Bs and phasing for our region .Too many parts apparently to sift through. On an A, run an already raining low over Atlanta into cold air over us. Easy, no real moving parts and infinite variables. Last night a 500mb map jumped 800 miles in 6 hours. This is not science, its patchwork example giving .

A bunch of us are booked for 7 springs Laurel Highlands

Air Florida disaster 44 years ago today. Heavy snow and inane deicing policies and a great snow day turned horrid

Then you don’t like winter weather .Come back in May

I’m wondering how much weaker the Gulf Stream has actually gotten and what effect that might be having on moisture not drawing up from the south and along the east coast. Matt used to comment (where in the world did he go and why ??) 15 years ago how models did so much better in ninos. He was correct and that correctness has un fortunately increased. Models are virtually helpless in Miller B dominated low pressure placements, movements and developments in Nina,no stj winters for mid Atlantic

Jesus another two weeks away . We are now living in silly land entirely I beg you all that pay for this crap to stop and address the issues with the vendors

A long time ago he had some sort of anonymity issue over something.

It’s just freaking incredible

It’s their design

That is an absurd depiction

Covered this at end of Dec as to the 7th then 14th then 21st being the magic moment . 7th out the door and 14th on life support so let’s head in the sand for the 21st. Models cannot predict low pressure placements and movements around the mid Atlantic in the winter. They are not outcome related forecasts, they are myriads of examples. That desperately needs to be resolved

It’s probably going to have to get east of our longitude to really snow. Last night it came up about 2016 and thst was a long drawn out 0.5” event

Yeah driving on 70 east of Frederick was near white out

Yes and that’s an analog season for me

Yes as depicted the low would have to be east of our longitude before snow will fall

Did the monster storm 50 miles east of OC get taken off the board?

That’s it!!

2016?