WEATHER53

Correct

I mentioned in the obs disc that models are still in the B mode and this isn’t a B. WWA will be placed for DC soon and we have low pressure actually along the coast and the cold air is mostly coming counter clockwise from Lows up to our north with assistance from a high around Nebraska. The change in any evolution of the outcome Won’t be a disappointment this time. We’ve cleared now and should get some good radiation before clouds take over

There was like one model which indicated this last night just hours before the event The set up for tomorrow is way different than recently. We have low pressure off the coast and cold air that is largely being delivered from other low pressures up north with some support from a Nebraska high Models are still stuck in the phase job transfer forecasting mode so they are not in sync. I never abandoned the potential of this and a few others did not also but most were in a 10 day one foot fantasy thread. Maybe we can get a good obs thread going for the upcoming .

Frederick house got solid 1.5” and Kemp Mill a dusting

Solid dusting in Kemp Mill with some still remaining in full shade. Frederick house 1”

I threw the flag unnecessary roughness

Some dice from the west moving this way with small areas of moderate to heavy on radar

There is a good area of precip moving in the right direction to our west

What worries me is that like always it’s 10 days away. Weve had many near equal presentations for that type of time frame in the last month

Most all of my ground is frozen so stickage commences quick

33 in OC and 18 in Wilmington would be quite something

Yes I love crab deck on Kent Island in summer

Intense area of precip on KY/TN border so watching that for direction movement and expansion

High of 35 and low of 19 No sun effect and with that low temp light snow will stick almost instantly overnight

I like what I see on the current surface maps as this presentation works for DC in the past

From 5 to 15 in a heartbeat. Marriage can be tough. 50/50

Well I’m down here in the holler at the head of the crick so yes!

Models don’t help me much about snow but they do seem to get extreme winter temp onsets correctly. Those temp projections are 1982 1994 like with DC area highs around 10 and low -5. I’m unsure we can do that kind of cold around here anymore but maybe we get a chance to see

My temp didn’t go above 31 this afternoon and at 4:30 already down to 27.5

I remember your children loved playing in the snow!

An already existent modest low pressure over Atlanta moving northeast is infinitely better for DC and far easier to predict with consistency and confirmation. The northern snd southern interaction and phase jumping from west of applchns to off the coast Way more difficult with many moving parts

What cracks me up is the myth of models as a viable forecasting tool or method for mid Atlantic winter low pressures. I think we have been through now its mandatory cover all bases for continued funding mode . What is still in our corner though is this cold air plunge does appear to want to set off a low from down south to along the coast. Thats way better for us than a phasing job.

Is that gulf moisture trying to connect to pacific ?

Wow that’s an ages old remembrance of cold air plunging and something gets going around tx/la and moves right toward us like that purple is pointing to

Yes. An already organized modest low pressure around Atlanta moving northeast ward Does Not have to do anything. It already exists and maybe can even intensify as it moves into our area’s hopefully cold air. Not much mechanics there.