WEATHER53

Going to be ripping when the cold front blasts thru. If we were to pop 70-75 it would be Mega Front action of 40 degree drop in 24 hours

Yes his is stellar. My records started in 1966 and really got going 1980-present . What happened from April into Setptember and what’s been happening last 15 or so days, each with a weighted average. When I find , for example, that May and June with near historically wet then July with very high heat indexes then August dry and normal temps and Nov 1-15 damp dreary snd chilly-what followed all that? When I can find 4 out of 5 matches or 7 out of 10 then I reveal my thoughts I like 12/4-5

3/4 days ago I responded to Ji that I was excited about 12/4-5. That comes from my memory and records of analog past events

So DCA would be 20 at 1 am

Amen and I have been getting crucified for years for saying this. It’s good to have a more popular poster finally get on board Lets go over the needed changes. Nothing beyond 5 days out. Drop the microscope approach and do a broader naked eye or binoculars approach stop trying to find out why the last forecast needs changing ingest more AI analog historical outcomes accept the FACT that 50 different outcomes is Not a forecast nor prediction but rather a needless cover all bases conglomeration There are mire but until and unless the consumers of models stop paying for and extolling the virtue of failing models then nothing will change

Exactly Our forecasting system is broken but many cling to it quite vociferously. Some can navigate impressively getting stations installed on public and private lands, they have talent and contacts and expert execution. I wish they would apply that talent to NOAA and NWS and bring about change. I’ve offered suggestions and not just complaints. But I’m a minority voice in that

January will deliver guaranteed

Freezing fog in some locations. 30 for the low here

Lots of words that said nothing. People that are addicted to a certain something will attack to defend it. You protected your models well . Your sociological commentary was funny

CAB and vacillating at its worse

I believe in 12/4-5

And many have direct personal experiences to Disprove it. A lot here were 8 years old 20 years ago and some of us already adults and already familiar with model performance

I would say both posts suggesting I cool my jets are mostly just excuse making about the accuracy and statements that we should just accept it and don’t complain. Models cover all the bases. Thats how they are scored for funding. So the status quo is content. I see no serious improvement over the last 20 years. I believe they try to do too much, like using a microscope for very close up inspection rather than a more backed off binoculars approach. Between now and Christmas Day we will see everything from 30 and snow to 60 and sun for Christmas Day. That’s not science, that’s cover all bases guesswork

If pattern changes are almost built in rushed in guidance then why not develop a system that does not do that? Over last couple winters we’ve seen gigantic failure anywhere from 36 hours to 15 days out. Very few if any positive such surprises .

It’s still mostly a cover all bases operation

See talk has now drifted to December instead of Thanksgiving with even some later patter. Can’t duck our heads and just sluff off the start of the infamous “delayed but” potential pattern

What are temps aloft as I’ve been steadily falling since 12 noon and now 47 with a dp of 23

Thanks Don. How have you been?

Two years ago I asked several times about the earth adjusting on its axis and was ridiculed. Now that its confirmed to be almost 3’ I wonder if we have any idea about any effect? Presumably it’s so minuscule but do we actually know that? I mean we are told the planet is so fragile due to the 4.5% of it that is populated so could even .0001% of a change in the sun angle be of any importance? Thanks

50.4 for my high which I think is the third coolest of the season

There has not been sufficient length of time. Many indexes are offered and even created but are dubious. We do know the negative NAO and AO remain big. Enso is not as strong a determinant as it was 15+ years ago. Pacific Ocean warmth cannot flood the nation and up into Canada. DC needs MillerAs and not phase job/transfer crap. We can get decent overrunning but the secondary rarely does anything for us . Mongolian high pressure sets us up well.

BWI: 22.5 DCA: 18.2 IAD:28, 7 RIC: 14.6 SBY: 14.9

47 when I parked the car in Baltimore and come out two hours later and its a different night. Something may be wicked with this front and my firepit event in big jeopardy

The fatal word of “delay”

Hopefully we are not beginning the delayed but…crap that have so crippled the models in winter forecasting