WEATHER53

Some dice from the west moving this way with small areas of moderate to heavy on radar

There is a good area of precip moving in the right direction to our west

What worries me is that like always it’s 10 days away. Weve had many near equal presentations for that type of time frame in the last month

Most all of my ground is frozen so stickage commences quick

33 in OC and 18 in Wilmington would be quite something

Yes I love crab deck on Kent Island in summer

Intense area of precip on KY/TN border so watching that for direction movement and expansion

High of 35 and low of 19 No sun effect and with that low temp light snow will stick almost instantly overnight

I like what I see on the current surface maps as this presentation works for DC in the past

From 5 to 15 in a heartbeat. Marriage can be tough. 50/50

Well I’m down here in the holler at the head of the crick so yes!

Models don’t help me much about snow but they do seem to get extreme winter temp onsets correctly. Those temp projections are 1982 1994 like with DC area highs around 10 and low -5. I’m unsure we can do that kind of cold around here anymore but maybe we get a chance to see

My temp didn’t go above 31 this afternoon and at 4:30 already down to 27.5

I remember your children loved playing in the snow!

An already existent modest low pressure over Atlanta moving northeast is infinitely better for DC and far easier to predict with consistency and confirmation. The northern snd southern interaction and phase jumping from west of applchns to off the coast Way more difficult with many moving parts

What cracks me up is the myth of models as a viable forecasting tool or method for mid Atlantic winter low pressures. I think we have been through now its mandatory cover all bases for continued funding mode . What is still in our corner though is this cold air plunge does appear to want to set off a low from down south to along the coast. Thats way better for us than a phasing job.

Is that gulf moisture trying to connect to pacific ?

Wow that’s an ages old remembrance of cold air plunging and something gets going around tx/la and moves right toward us like that purple is pointing to

Yes. An already organized modest low pressure around Atlanta moving northeast ward Does Not have to do anything. It already exists and maybe can even intensify as it moves into our area’s hopefully cold air. Not much mechanics there.

A range of 27-67 can be anticipated as examples

Well they continue to try and do things they can’t do. In Nina’s they can’t provide accurate scientific data and is mostly 300 samples of examples. I think as they have tried to increase their resolution , that’s gotten worse. Northern and southern stream cooperation along with transfers from west of applchns to off the coast just too many gears and parts to predict. Rainstorm already effecting Atlanta and moving northeast ward is mostly already in place and easy. A’s work for us And models and they seem to be gone lately Where I draw heat is pointing this out . Frankly I can’t understand the defensiveness. I guess unlike many I come here for information on what will most likely happen with some attention paid to consistency. . Every single example of what has a 5% chance of occurring and covering every outcome imaginable just is not exciting for me and in fact discouraging .

Beautifully stated and true.

It’s not that winter is over. It’s just simply that models have gotten way worse in handling Nina winters with the low pressure placements and movement and even if any low forms at all. They never really could handle Bs and phasing for our region .Too many parts apparently to sift through. On an A, run an already raining low over Atlanta into cold air over us. Easy, no real moving parts and infinite variables. Last night a 500mb map jumped 800 miles in 6 hours. This is not science, its patchwork example giving .

A bunch of us are booked for 7 springs Laurel Highlands

Air Florida disaster 44 years ago today. Heavy snow and inane deicing policies and a great snow day turned horrid