Yikes. The rain is starting earlier and harder tonight then first forecasted. This could be the worst flooding event ever here.
HRRR went up 2'' in the last 5 runs.
The lowest part of the levee is 743'' in Henderson. I can't find anything on other towns along the Minnesota River.
I know it's early and it's the overexcited NAM 3k but if this happens or even close it could be the worst flooding ever around here. The rivers are really high from previous rainfalls and forecast don't include the rain tomorrow night and Friday. The record flooding came from just one storm. This is that and more.
Current record flooding from September 2010:
What's this white stuff falling from the sky?
First actual snowfall of the season. Nothing has lasted more than a day here. Largest snowfall was in October. Beaten tonight.
The GFS is terrible in the Midwest. Every summer it fails to take in humidity from corn sweat and even regular humidity. Last heat wave it showed 40F dew points here. It was 80F. The model is a long term outlook model, not a pinpoint accurate one.
After no severe weather warnings all year I actually got 2 today along with brief hail and wind. I thought I was going the whole summer without a good storm for the first time.
Tonight looks decent, at least the best chance for myself this season. More CAPE then one could ever ask for. Probably a step under a derecho. I thought an enhanced risk would be issued on the last update.
Wouldn't be surprised to see a slight risk added to Minnesota and Dakotas for tomorrow. Might be the best chance of the year to actually get a storm for me. Still sitting at 0s.