wawarriors4

LWX AFD Dramatic shifts in guidance over the past 12 hours for a potential snowstorm tonight through midday Monday for the southern half of our CWA, bisecting very close to the major metropolitan areas. Digging H5 trough over the southern plains will amplify today, cut-off an upper low tonight over the Carolinas, then go negative tilt as it crosses the mid-Atlantic coast Monday morning. The reflection at the surface will be the development of low pressure, rapidly deepening and tightening tonight over the southeast US to a position over Cape Hatteras by daybreak Monday. At the same time, cold Canadian air will quickly filter in aloft, bringing H85 temps well below 0C for much of the entire CWA by 12Z Monday. 00Z GFS, ECMWF, NAM all have at least advisory level snowfall accumulations essentially south of I-66/US-50. 05Z NBM, which was followed closely in development of snowfall accumulations this morning, dampens the largest snowfall contributor -- the GFS, and splits the difference between that model and the lesser accumulating NAM. Because of the large variations and the dramatic shift in guidance, advisories have been issued west of I-95 where the precipitation onset will start shortly after midnight tonight, and watches issued along and E of I-95. There will be a tight gradient of snowfall accumulation north of the Nation's Capital, and potential warnings and advisories will most certainly be modified as guidance hopefully converges with a solution over the next 12 hours. The most likely snowfall forecast should be used with caution, with probabilities of higher amounts, towards the 90th percentile, should strongly be considered for planning purposes. Please continue to check back as we modify this forecast in the coming hours.

Watches up just South of LWX in AKQ eta: Blacksburg went straight to Winter Storm Warnings

Tornado Watch Fredericksburg and points South and West til 3:00 AM

Finishes the day with 0.81”

Up to .64 here for the day

Already at .33 just NW of Fredericksburg, and it’s pouring

about a mile down the road from my house, we have trees uprooted and snapped in various directions…..

Hearing that it was pretty nasty in my neighborhood in Stafford. Power must be out because I can’t get any of my home cameras to work, I’m in Pennsylvania….

Picked up 2.61” of rain with numerous branches down around my yard. All since 8:50 PM this evening. The creek that was a trickle is now raging in the backyard.

0.00” yesterday and 0.18” for the week and 1.76” for month so far….grass is crunchy. Feels like storms just dissipate or move just South through Spotsy rather than over my yard just NW of FXBG

Nasty around Fredericksburg yesterday confirmed microburst…. https://fredericksburg.com/news/local/microburst-brings-damage-power-outages-to-city-residents/article_03bc0f9a-d953-5abb-bb53-8014f87fb5b2.html?utm_campaign=snd-autopilot&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook_&fbclid=IwAR0WSDEJJkPBwX77EA-adgdFzb5e5NR1gqtpFJhNCjkvZnF2_NgphxGR2i8

Storms seemed to go all around where I am in Stafford. Officially 0.00” in the rain gauge, my lawn might just turn to dust.

I have 88/77 at the house at the moment, that is wild and seems high to me. (DP wise at least)

SPC added slight area in the afternoon update for Southern MD and SEVA

It’s 85/64 here in Spotsylvania will close to full sun for the last hour or so.

Lots of thunder and lightning as the storm moved through, poured rain for about 15 minutes and wind gusted above 40mph. Nothing crazy, but a solid storm, was nice to hear the thunder and see lightning.

Solid Thunderstorm on-going right now here in Spotsy!

A few lightning flashes and rumbles of Thunder in Spotsy at work. Radar looks ok.

.51" of rain last night around 2:30 AM from a noisy little thunderstorm.

Sun is popping out down here around Fredericksburg......

Just NW of Fredericksburg

38.3727544 N 77.5217492 W

All sleet now, 26 It’s loud outside

Snow/Sleet mix, 25

26/16 here and still mostly clear, colder than I expected. Walked around the yard, mud frozen and most things frozen. Could be ugly if we get freezing rain..... eta: rooting for a sleet sandblasting