lee59

4 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

FOR US IN THE NORTH - 

 

Snow accumulations from this storm will be highest in the
Catskills where 1.5 to 3 feet are possible. Throughout the
Mohawk and Upper Hudson Valley, totals will range from 12-18
inches. Slightly lower accumulations of 8-12 inches in the Mid-
Hudson Valley and Western Adirondacks are likely, with locally
lower accumulations of 6-8 inches around Poughkeepsie. Finally,
Southern Vermont and the Berkshires could also see upwards of
12-18 inches with locally higher amounts of 20 inches or
greater. In addition to significant snowfall totals as a result
of this storm, high winds can be expected Tuesday and
Wednesday.

This storm will bring significant impacts to the entirety of our
CWA. Mild temperatures prior to substantial wetbulbing will lead
to snow that is very wet and heavy for the first part of the
storm. This heavy, wet snow (SLRs around 8 to 10:1) can be
expected Monday afternoon/evening through Tuesday morning
before a transition to cooler temperatures helps to increase
SLRs (upwards of 12 to 15:1) Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
morning.

Yes this does look like a very significant event for  the northeast. Even the coast. The biggest problem could be the heavy wet snow taking down limbs in the high winds. Fortunately not any leafing of trees. Meanwhile I have an east wind already gusting to 22mph.

As with most of these storms, it will be nowcast time. ESE wind already getting busy here.

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Hunter Mountain might be the best place of any with this. Perfect for a huge upslope easterly flow event. They may get 30”. 

Great for ski resorts. After a crummy winter, maybe they will be skiing well into spring.

26 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

New Euro run puts the low over central CT so maybe spoke too soon about Boston getting crushed.  

Have to admit, this winter has been a total fail there too. 

Sounds like Catskills, Adirondacks and Poconos could really get hammered especially with a more western track. Not so good for the coast.

Still a major coastal Nor'easter for the next few days. Strong winds, heavy rain and heavy snow for some in the northeast.

3 minutes ago, Sportybx said:

This thing is going to shoot west tomorrow . Last minute rush tk the stores will cause chaos in NYC . Mets will get abused over not calling this sooner . Would be a typical way to close out winter in the NE this year 

Rather than shoot west, I would rather see it get stronger sooner.

1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Still not enough for NYC to see anything meaningful. 

This year 2 inches is meaningful.

4 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

A good start! GFS is west!

Over the Cape

Latest forecast from NWS  seems to have the coast and NYC with a general 2-4 inches, around Newburgh 6-9 inches and up toward Kingston a foot, Monticello area almost 20 inches.

It may be a pure elevation event, for those in Manhattan go to the observation center on the Empire State building. 

From Upton:

The trend with the track however, has been farther south and
east, meaning a colder solution and therefore more in the way of
snow, even along the coast. Much of the area will see plain
rain for Monday, with perhaps a rain/snow mix across the higher
elevation inland. As the low tracks east of the area, and
strengthens, strong cold air advection will ensue, allowing a
changeover to snow from northwest to southeast late Monday night
into Tuesday morning. This time frame is also a period of when
the heavier precipitation is expected. Heavy snow is expected
across the interior, while there will be heavy rain for the
coast.

By early Tuesday morning, the changeover continues, even towards
coastal areas, but by this point, the heavier precipitation will
have ended. This changeover continues moving south and east.
The snowfall forecast will be quite challenging as accumulating
snowfall is possible, even along the coast.

The problem with this system from the beginning has been the lack of cold air. I think it can still be a major Nor'easter, with or without the snow.

9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Where we are will get blitzed by easterly winds before anything hits the ground which will likely be rain since it’s coming from 45 degree waters. 

If the storm is near Nantucket or the Cape, I would think we will get more of a Northerly wind. The problem would be how heavy the precip is.

I think some folks live and die to much on each run of each model. To me it has been pretty much the same for days. There will be an intense low off the east coast that looks to be somewhere near the Cape at some point or possibly near Nantucket. It looks to be east but retrograde back toward the coast. As far as I am concerned it is still very uncertain as to who gets what. There have been times when it is closer to the coast which probably would have been rain on Long Island where I am.

I'm not seeing this as a terrible Euro run. It is east of the Cape but retrogrades back to the Cape. Maybe allows a more cold air to infiltrate our area.

Snow has broken out near Dulles airport, which is about 20 miles west of D.C. 

The precip here is very intensity sensitive. When it lightens up all rain, comes down a little harder and snow mixes in. 36 degrees.

The threat for snow in some areas may or may not happen. The intensity of this storm, however, may produce other threats, like very strong winds and coastal flooding. 

The precip here is very intensity sensitive. When it lightens up all rain, comes down a little harder and snow mixes in. Down to 36 degrees.

Rain mixing with snow here, 36.5 degrees

CMC, GFS and Euro all have very intense Nor'easter off our shores now. Could be real interesting. If there was more cold air in place, might have been a good snowstorm from DC to Boston.

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Nope, I’m talking here. It wouldn’t take much

Not long ago New England was in the zone, now Jersey and NYC area looking a little better. As you say, won't take much to include you guys. Still so much uncertainty however.

19 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Kind of puts to rest that "you don't need cold air" theories?

The thing is with cold arctic air to the north and west of the storm, it makes the storm more intense and a much wider area of heavy snow and wind. With no cold air, yes it can snow with heavier precip. falling, especially inland. It is like shoveling cement if it even accumulates. As was mentioned earlier, we had a lot of good winters while the west suffered, this year is their year.

If there was only some decent cold air around. 

To me it looks like starting this weekend and going into next week there is storm activity off the east coast. Still very uncertain as to the outcome of any of these storms. I don't think anyone can say for sure what the outcome will be. At least there is something to follow, better than most of this winter.