JetsPens87
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About JetsPens87
- Birthday 05/07/1987
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It's coming
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Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23
JetsPens87 replied to BxEngine's topic in New York City Metro
It's been one of the hottest summers on record here. -
Little cell. Deluge On and off rain all day here so far.
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Slow moving front as @bluewave called out butted up against record WAR was an easy recipe for this.
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Wouldn't be surprised to see some training convection in this instance
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I mean if even JB is going above normal then you pretty much know lol...
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Virtually every signal headed into this summer pointed to a well above normal season with extended and frequent big heat. To forecast against that was....risky...
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WAR driven pattern with trough through MW funnels HHH conditions right up to us. It's not 100 degree weather but it is consistent upper 80s into 90s and high dews throughout. Along with that comes numerous thunderstorm chances.
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Thanks for the thorough analysis Virtually every piece of guidance disagrees with you
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Why are you so creepy
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If the timing was earlier in the day this would have been a great event.
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This is very true
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Perhaps the most clustered action will be N of here as the storms fire along the front and primarily look to march E driven by weak/moderate steering. However...I'd be careful to totally dismiss the action further S where we should see some individual cells and less overall/but perhaps stronger storms where you have more favorable lift and steeper mid level lapse rates. The only drawback is there's just not much of a trigger with the light shear. Of course timing will play a role in strength of any storms here as well....and that unfortunately isn't on our side if the lapse rates/Cape etc. begin to diminish later on.
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Sheesh! 33 days a year average last 10 years? Crazy.
