JetsPens87
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What's the airport at officially though
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X 100 -
Good luck all Total accums ceiling step back slightly but general 2 to 5 across the board with 6 plus (if it's gonna be anywhere) NWNJ into New England. Fast moving storm. Banding dependent. Think highest accums will follow where initial axis of snow is setting up now. Possible second maxima S and E of 95 with coastal development. Screw area if any could be along and just NW of 95 (still 2 to 3) with squeeze in between initial finger and coastal banding later. Models playing around with this and that's a nowcast but just alerting.
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Freezing fog here
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This is solid and in line with my thinking though 12z suite gives higher confidence in higher ceiling along 95 and SE. I like the fresh bleed of true arctic air (notably the coldest in years) approaching in conjunction with a potent developing coastal. 850 fronto lines CNJ NWNJ 700 fronto lines NWNJ Poconos. Overlap area of those to from CNJ to NWNJ makes for 6 plus potential.
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It's coming
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Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23
JetsPens87 replied to BxEngine's topic in New York City Metro
It's been one of the hottest summers on record here. -
Little cell. Deluge On and off rain all day here so far.
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Slow moving front as @bluewave called out butted up against record WAR was an easy recipe for this.
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Wouldn't be surprised to see some training convection in this instance
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I mean if even JB is going above normal then you pretty much know lol...
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Virtually every signal headed into this summer pointed to a well above normal season with extended and frequent big heat. To forecast against that was....risky...
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WAR driven pattern with trough through MW funnels HHH conditions right up to us. It's not 100 degree weather but it is consistent upper 80s into 90s and high dews throughout. Along with that comes numerous thunderstorm chances.
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Thanks for the thorough analysis Virtually every piece of guidance disagrees with you
