Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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I think a lot of this is just going to come down to timing. There are some VERY cold highs lurking during the aforementioned timeframes. Again, with things flipping, I highly doubt this is nailed down ten days out.
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Look at the move that ensembles have made since 18z yesterday. Pretty impressive trend over four runs. I think we are looking at very cold temps just after this FWIW.
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12z Euro is a southern KY slider.....I think anyone north of I-40 needs to keep an eye on this. This winter it seems the verified boundary has been south of modeling. Ensembles have flipped cold - big move. I doubt modeling is done adjusting.
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The thing is the PDO is not impeding things right now. I am starting to thing the PDO can trump bad climatology, and has been for a long time(when it positive). The new CANSIPS has warm-water along the eastern Pac Coast to start next winter. I am thinking my next season's forecast is gonna be pretty bullish.
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Yeah, man. With bitter cold in the Plains and the STJ on flamethrower mode, somebody is likely gonna get hammered east of the MS.
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We don't want that push. We want a west-to-east confluence over our area w/ the STJ just ripping. The GFS is very cold at the end of its run. One cutter, and we could be well below zero.
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This is one of these patterns where if we don't hit on the first, there are like 2-3 after it. The GFS ended its run w/ another big storm incoming. Reminds me of the later December look on modeling. Maybe shorter wavelengths in Feb could help. If TRI can hit on one of these, we could end up way above "new" climatology for snow.
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@Daniel Boone, that is a 95-96 redux. Nice storm, big warm-up, and another storm after the first 1/3 of Feb.
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Boundary has been trending south on modeling. Reminds me a lot of the "no way it is gonna snow in Tallahassee" storm where it just kept sagging further and further south. Good trends. The CMC looked loaded for bear at the end of its run. That cold means business.
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Ensembles have cooled off this morning around mid-month, if not earlier. Like last time, the deterministic runs caught it before the ensembles locked in. Then....the ensembles held it while the deterministic runs flipped back and forth. John has the 0z suite covered above. If that was a 12z suite, there would be 2-3 pages of posts.
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18z AIFS is decent.
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The Interior NE is almost a lock at this point to get buried. Ohio River looks like a sweet spot as well. We want that boundary pressed south with each slp. With as active as the STJ is...almost have to think someone in the SE see frozen on more than one occasion. That is an active pattern.
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Euro absolutely sent it after 240. Shots fired!
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That strat split that Holston showed....that will wreck complete havoc on modeling. That might be why the ensembles are slow to change things up. I doubt ensembles can handle a strat split any better than a deterministic can. The GFS several winters ago nailed a strat split from 16 days out, and has done that more than once. It is a big uncanny that it can do that.
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When I see cold in the Montana prairies and Dakotas....it usually finds its way into this area. Just something to watch. SER is gonna fight.
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I mean seriously, ya'll. Go look at the interior NE maps. LOL.
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The ensembles are not showing the cold that the deterministic runs are....yet. So, I am kind of holding back a bit until those get on board. The Weeklies just perpetuate a stable pattern if they can. They never made the transition from cold to warm(well they made the transition late). That said, the control about 50% of the time does show cold returning. Need those ensembles on board. I haven't looked at ensembles yet today, just deterministic. Since we are about to enter another shoulder season, I figure they are gonna be a mess.
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While we are still watching mid-Feb, the interior NE could just get smashed. Take a look at the 6z GFS amounts for that area on Tropical Tidbits. Snowmeggedon type of stuff (not here, but there).
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There we go. The 18z AIFS is cold and snowy....bout that time.
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The 12z Euro AIFS has a big storm around the 13th. I wouldn't say models are honking, but they are starting to make some noise around then. That seems to be a decent little window between the 10th and 14th. Then another ridge rolls though. We might have 2-3 windows(which are 2-3 days in length) where we can score. The EMON(EURO ext) MJO looks super promising. Modeling will react and turn colder if that is correct. So far, the Euro MJO is winning. American modeling has left the idea of a stall in 6, and progress in its forecast. So, I "think" we will see a cooling trend in modeling beginning around the 20th. Looks like a decent loop through cold. The timing(being late in Feb) isn't ideal, but we get what we get, right?
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12z GFS hints again at the Feb11th time frame as an overrunning event.
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I still feel like the Feb 20-March 7 timeframe is a good bet for cool. I think we see some back and forth cold Feb 10-20. Base warm February looks on tap. Analogs had a strong warm signal for Feb. I think they may well be right. I do think we see a similar pattern reversal as we did during late December. Ensembles are very warm. Operationals, including the 18z GFS, are pretty chilly.
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The 12z Euro has made the same shift. That is a pretty cold look after d9. Pretty big departures from normal.
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And suddenly, the 12z GFS discovers the MJO is not permanently stuck in phase 6. Suppressed pattern by decent cold. I feel like I have seen this movie before.
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It does look soggy though!!!!
