Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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The LR seems much clearer today. It looks like a strong cold front will make its way into the region on either Feb16 or Feb17. The week prior will be a transitional period and very rainy. After the strong cold from on the 16th/17th there will likely be 3-4 cold shots of 2-4 days duration each time with warmups in between. Is it a “warmup and rain pattern” after mid month? Maybe, but details are likely poor at this range. The February analog package that I used for this year has been spot on. February is 13+ in terms of temps so far. This month is now almost guaranteed to be AN for temps. March looks chilly, at least the start of it does.
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Plenty of thunder. Mountain rules are in play.
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We gonna try wall-to-wall cold next winter?
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There is also a very strong -NAO signal on all ensembles after d10. That is likely the SSW having some impact. That is coupled with help from the Pacific. Could be some fireworks to end winter. We will see.
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What is crazy is that it seems that flooding preceding cold(at this time of year) is not terribly uncommon in my experience in NE TN. Hey, it thundered this morning IMBY. Ten day clock is counting.
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The 12z Euro is pretty frigid late in that run. Even the GFS gets pretty cold as well. I think we are starting to see some convergence on when/if cold returns. I still think we see a transition from say Feb9-17th. Then, I think we see the MJO rotate into 8 around Feb 16th. I don't think there will be a lag...cold likely returns consistently around then. It might stall there???? Or it might loop quickly back around per the old BOMM from a few days ago. Models will often be too quick with cold returning. It is possible that we go cold/dry when that change occurs. So, I don't want to overhype... American modeling is in the Euro camp today regarding the MJO on CPC's plots.
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13-15" of rain on the 6z GFS for large portions of middle TN, the Plateau, and E TN. I am guessing that is model feedback. Other globals only have a 1/3 of that. Hopefully that is an outlier which does not verify.
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If you haven't noticed, I am big on watching trends and looking for breaks in continuity. For the record, one run doesn't equal a trend. However, with the CMC holding steady and the GFS moving towards it...that is what gets my attention. At some point the colder MJO plots should start bearing fruit in LR modeling. We are at a point where deterministic runs can lead the ensembles even at range. We are at the fork in the road so to speak. We have seen the Feb 9th timeframe as a demarcation point between American modeling and the CMC/Euro combo. So, we should see some commonalities begin to re-emerge in modeling. Yesterday morning, it looked like warm was going to be dominant. Now, I am not so sure. We saw the abrupt change yesterday at 12z. We are seeing something similar, though less pronounced today at 12z. I think we see several precip impulses(you all see the same I am sure) between Feb9-16. Then, I think the cold presses east west across an undetermined boundary but likely centered just along the Ohio River Valley, but formidable enough to bring snow north of I-40 at times.
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I would feel decently good if I lived on the northern Plateau, in southwest Virginia, extreme NE TN, and SE KY. I agree with Boone that the firs system is likely to be rain for most, but some high elevation snow wouldn't surprise me. The first real chance is Feb 11 and then maybe alternating storms after that. We want to see(as others have noted) the first system to press the boundary south as it departs. Then, we want the second system to overrun the cold and trap it. This is less thread the needle and more timing. There aren't a ton of moving parts. This is 100% how far the cold presses after each storm. So, it is a little easier to track in my book. Still work to do, but 12z was a good step. I still think the very best that this pattern can hold is just at d16 now. Feb 20 to March 10 still looks ripe for the picking. If we can go phase 8 w/ this active STJ, somebody should score and maybe more than once.
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So, the 12z GFS could be a course correction or just an outlier or both. But the 12z GFS doesn't even look remotely like the 6z GFS. The Canadian looks quite similar to 0z. It is worth noting that the CMC sometimes will handle cold intrusions a bit better(if not a bit overdone on its part). And if ya'll see me posting during a model suite after days of "meh," you know something has caught my eye....or maybe something is just in my eye.
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Gotcha! LOL. The 12z GFS almost erased the SER. That might be a hint that a stall in 6 is unlikely. If that trend holds, we could see some major flips in modeling incoming.
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The GFS and GEFS ext(GMON) are IMHO getting absolutely roasted by the Euro and Euro Weeklies in regards to the Weeklies - so far. However, the GFS is doing ok w/ modeling systems at range on actual surface maps over NA. That doesn't quite jive. However, I think we need to be careful with the GFS right now as its MJO plotting has been abysmal - I mean really bad. The Canadian and Euro have been more accurate. If it stalls in 6, then American modeling wins. If it races across 6, then American modeling is in big time "catchup" mode. Normally, I would spike the ball and declare American modeling DOA. However, notice that the MJO (when it hit 6)gains a bit higher amplitude. That is a small miss for European modeling. However, the European was correct with the MJO racing across 4 and 5 at low amplitude. Big test coming up. If we are out of 6(even just a bit slower than the Euro depicts), we are good to go. The initial GEFS ext plots had it stalling in 6 and never leaving for the rest of winter. The GEFS ext (GMON) is a full week slower getting into phase 8 - of which its forecast died in phase 6 just weeks ago. American modeling has been dragging its feet with the MJO. To repeat, the real test is now at hand. If it hustles across 6, American modeling is in real trouble with even its medium range products. If it stalls for 10-12 days in 6, then initial American modeling was right. IMHO, the reason we are seeing big swings within certain suites is the handling of the MJO. Actual surface modeling over NA should tip the hand of modeling for future MJO plots. If the cold presses eastward, the CMC/Euro MJO is probably on the precipice of a win. The 12z suite definitely was pushing the cold more. The 12z GFS was a pretty massive break in continuity.
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I haven't looked closely as these events are still way out there. However, I suspect we are seeing some variations in time of day, rates, and how far the cold pushes southward. Those there aforementioned combos make big differences here in NE TN. The 12z CMC drops 4-12" over TRI. The 12z GFS is probably 200 miles south of where it was just at 6z. We are on the southernmost extent of this setup. We generally want to be on the north side of the rain/snow line, and let it work northward. Right now, wow are on the southside of that line with 6 days to go....not a good spot, but sometimes that does work out.
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The 12z suite is south of overnight guidance yet again. I find it hard to believe that is just a coincidence. The CMC has snow for E TN yet again. The GFS is close. I do agree the preponderance of runs suggest KY to the NE. However, as we saw with the Florida systems, sometimes(not always) systems do trend south if the incoming cold is strong. I give us a 35% chance of measurable snow.
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Everybody in E TN and NC are like....nope, nope, nope! LOL. We have had all the flooding that we want to see for like the next 50 years.
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I take full credit for models shifting MAJORLY south at 12z. LOL.
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We will see where modeling goes today, but almost all of the overnight modeling has shifted the rain/snow line well north of the area. It would take a major shift for that to come back south, and I think that is unlikely. I think our best chances are between Feb20-March10. Feb10-20 continues to look like a transition from much AN temps to seasonal/below. Yesterday was crazy warm. I actually got out and cleaned up the yard. Temps were around 70. It is looking more and more(like many winters which had severe cold) that the weather pattern has snapped back warm. The SER will fight winter the rest of the way. We are close to a standing wave over the SE.
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The 12z Euro Ensemble snow mean isn’t too shabby. It is usually slow to get on board.
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The Euro Weeklies are cold. The control is frigid. Control buries E TN.
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What is crazy is that before the MJO really takes hold in the colder phases. I suspect those are just the opening salvos.
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The 6z AIFS has the winter storm. This is the good stuff below. By mid February, the Euro has the MJO in phase 8. The EURO MJO plot has been kicking butt and taking names of late.
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IDK. I will add that the Euro Weeklies ext hav flipped at 500 to a much colder pattern. BIG difference from the past several weeks of runs. And that set of weeklies wasn't derived from the 12z run which was colder.
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With ensembles potentially flipping mid-month, something is afoot. Most analogs had February warm, but March cold. That tells me that maybe not all of Feb was warm. All we can ask for at this range is an STJ on steroids and BN temps. The MJO looks ripe. High latitude blocking signatures are off the charts.
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Gimme some of that.
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If you want to draw up a February pattern which delivers, it looks like this...The PDO is kicking the trough out of the West IMHO.
