Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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Not uncommon IMBY. I don’t think this will be as cold as Jan, but the STJ should be more active. Suppression is always a risk, but the SER will fight suppression during the latter part of Feb. We just want to see everything below us right now. The CPC has us well below normal for temps in their d8-14 and above normal for precip. Before I had access to weather models, that is all I used. If BN cold and AN precip intersected….generally that meant someone was going to score.
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The 6z Euro has a system for Sunday which is a weak slider for middle and west TN. The 0z/6z GFS and 0z Euro absolutely hammer parts of the forum. The 0z Euro had 2-3 feet on the eastern rim around Nashville. Who knows if they are right? I don't. However, bitterly cold air being injected into a strong STJ can yield good result. Time will tell. The overnight setup has been their for several days on the GFS and on the Weeklies.
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Some pretty insane runs last night with snow chances between the 16th and 21st.
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Confluence is right over this area for the last half of the month.
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The 12z and 18z Euro are showing some potential for upslop and even a weak lee side/inland slp (after a cutter) around the 17th. That is really cold air moving in behind that. The 18z only goes out to 144.
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Modeling is definitely sensing the phase 8 MJO as @Daniel Boonenoted. I am guessing the GFS is under doing the cold. The mechanism is there to delivery frigid temps into the region during the second half of February.
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We could see real feels which are 80 degrees colder than the end of last week.
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Feb 17th and 20th on the Euro are pretty frigid. The Real Feel for the Canadian around the 17th is below zero for a decent amount of folks north of 40. Here is the d10 real feel on the Euro(which also has the cold on the 17th).
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I wouldn't say models are honking for Feb16-21...but they are kind of trying to. The 18z GFS has a setup.
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The 21z HRRR pulls the frozen precip line over the very northern edge of the Plateau early tomorrow morning. Sleet mainly. TRI...line held study w/ Sullivan getting some sleet yet again on that run. The HRRR definitely has more frozen precip than other models, but.....it can be pretty good over this area.
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The 19z HRRR is bringing in some mix(sleet) south of the TN line in NE TN. Been a slow progression southward today. Sneaky and pesky rain/sleet/snow line.
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I am also starting to see all global ensemble snow means bump up for Feb 15 onward.
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The 12z suite has switched to full suppression after mid-month. In fact, the timeframe between Feb17-21 looks really good for wintry weather.
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For once, I am glad to be in a rain shadow.
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12z ensembles are incredibly cold from the 16th onward. I think we have a good chance of someone scoring around that timeframe...and about ten days from when it thundered to boot. I am noticing the storm track push further and further south as well. Those cutters may become Apps runners or inland runners with time.
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12z suite may not have big clown maps, but that is a pretty good look. I would recommend starting a flood thread. This is likely going to be a major event.
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Jason, Bill, and Paul.
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Good share. There is definitely a loose correlation between severe weather and winter storms following. I remember the Powell tornado well. I had three friends at UT who played on the state team for Powell. We went over to see the damage afterwards. The coincidence this week was not lost on me. For me, eerily similar circumstances to the event in 93.
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Well, American modeling has stopped with the phase 6 stall which it held onto for a long time(weeks). It is now progressing at a similar pace as other modeling. Thus, we are now seeing rather drastic changes in LR modeling. Weeklies have flipped back cold. I think we are looking at a week or two of -10 departures from normal. Looking at the CPC d8-14 forecast, we can see BN temps and AN precip. For now, this looks like a warm-up and rain pattern w/ cold dry intervals....but I highly doubt any of the models are caught up. BTW, I suspect this makes a full rotation. It is possible this could loop back through 8 again which I would welcome, but a full rotation is more likely(but not certain). Looks like the old GEFS plots (not this one) will bust bigly. This begs to ask the question, "Do we even trust GFS modeling d10-15?" I think the Euro is probably a better model right now. To be clear, it literally stalled the MJO in 5-6 for the rest of winter at one point. Now, look at today's.
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This has been a steady trend for a couple of days. It could radically alter what we are seeing in even the medium range if real. Definitely some good signs starting about d8-9. Might be the most impressive look of the winter. Still a long ways out there, but well worth your time to look at.
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Insane run by the 18z GFS....NAO is 5 sigmas negative? The ensembles at 12z are showing something similar. That HL blocking is under 200...this isn't way out there.
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The Euro Weeklies are throwing out some really good looks which at times include a -EPO and -NAO. The window looks like Feb 17th to around March 10th. I am seeing 10 degrees BN for departures. Pretty frigid look. Halftime is almost over, and what a glorious one it has been.
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Starting to see sub zero real feels show up on modeling around Feb 17.
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If u want to see some pretty massive changes at high latitudes at 500, go look at all of the afternoon ensembles. This sets the stage for a pretty significant cold outbreak after mid-month. Flip city.
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Both the ICON and CMC at 12z have a slp taking the low road around 132.
