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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    0z GEM might have ticked one county north... pretty much the same look as it had at 12z. Steady. Icy.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Knoxville has 24 hours of frozen precip according to the WxBell algorithm. Hour 69-83. Hour 78-93 is ice. Debatable whether that run would actually flip Knoxville rain just knowing how ZR behaves there from experience. Having done the ice deal in Knoxville during the eary 90s(surprise ice storm that hit right as school started on maybe a Friday)....Knoxville can get stuck at freezing sometimes. Either way...quick thump of snow, sleet, zr, and then rain for Knox. Right around an inch of ZR for TYS and .60-.70 for TRI w/ TRI managing 2" on the front end, then zr, then wrap around snow to end w 6"...doubt that snow total holds. North Georgia gets 2.44" of ZR. SW TN gets the sleet hammer. Chattanooga 1.11" of ice.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Nope. It could end up that way in reality, but not that run.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Interestingly, the 0z GFS runs a weak surface low from south Alabama into south/central Georgia and into the Carolina Piedmont to end the storm. Just something to watch w/ future runs. Pretty heavy icing over the eastern 2/3 of the forum. Hammers Atlanta metro. The rain snow axis didn't jump as much as I thought it would. Ice is the story as it was at 12z for all other models. GFS is on board.
  5. Carvers Gap
    That was a really odd phase out West w/ the northern stream losing symmetry for lack of a better word. Didn't have that parabolic look. Looked like you bent a straw and held it on its side.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Definitely more amped by the GFS. Looks like a lot of ice.
  7. Carvers Gap
    By 78, the GFS is doing something wonky w/ the polar jet(squashes the bend like bending a straw a bit to much).
  8. Carvers Gap
    Maybe and hour or two slower at 63...track looks similar for wave one.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Out to 60...minute differences to this point when compared to 18z.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Early in the run, the position of the Baja low(and it may not matter) has been maybe 25-50miles southwest of 18z just based on quick glances at each 500 vort map tonight.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Big 1054 hp in north, central MT at 30 and 36. HP might be a hair west (could be slower and actually not west). Otherwise. similar to 18z.
  12. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS is rolling. It is important to remember that tomorrow night is also big due to more HH data being utilized.
  13. Carvers Gap
    The 0z ICON (as was the NAM)....little bit flatter but still sends a strong reflection westward(edit). The ICON just about shifts the low to east of the Apps. As is, it ran the spine of the Apps. Their was less reflection west, but for sure....a decent amount...just less. Both models ticked south a bit. Both are icy as is the RGEM w/ shoves a weak low into the forum area. No big jumps at this point.
  14. Carvers Gap
    I am glad you said that. I have noticed that same feature on other models as well...and it seemed like it could bleed into Chatty from there, but I couldn't remember. These big highs are capable of doing it.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Snow axis was a tick south....came close to getting that slp east of the Apps.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Great source! We appreciate the share!
  17. Carvers Gap
    The 0z NAM at range...
  18. Carvers Gap
    Great information. I will post the actual tweet for you. Credit to Jax for the find.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Egads...the ZR totals on the 0z NAM.
  20. Carvers Gap
    12z NAM....Later phase creates a flatter second wave...good trend. In general, the first wave was flatter as well. Precip shield w/ the first wave was about 6 counties south....barely got to the Ohio River Valley. With the second wave phasing later, that opens the window for the second slp to come in flatter. It would have been fun to see the rest of that run......out to say 150.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Should be a later phase......I have no idea how that second wave is gonna look.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Out to 63....it hasn't phased...the Baja is almost cutoff and just drifting.
  23. Carvers Gap
    It keeps flirting with all-time record lows. Getting any models to show -20s in this area is remarkable.
  24. Carvers Gap
    LOL. That...is...a...winner!
  25. Carvers Gap
    Yes. That is what it looked like on the surface. The bulk of it comes out first. Now which model would be guilty of holding too much energy back?
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