Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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45 degree BN temperature anomalies.
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The CMC can keep its -20 real feels.
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I don't even want to know how much cold is behind something like that.
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The 12z CMC has a 959 low sitting off Portland, Maine.
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The 12z CMC is a freaking monster.
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The 12z CMC is a big dog. Trailing energy caught it. Have I said how much I hate tracking "trailing energy" storms. This is why.
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Yeah, hold up. The 12z CMC somehow found the storm. LOL.
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We are gonna try to send this one to Havana. Not good trends at 12z.
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The 12z CMC has 1060 high sitting over this at 114.
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The ICON at 12z was very suppressed.
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And that friends is why trailing energy systems are the worst to track. That GFS cutter the other day is almost laughable now. Ensembles overnight were very suppressed compared to their deterministic counterparts. This looks like it may well swing well below us and try to come up the coast in reality. Where is the SER when we need it?
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12z GFS is going to try to dig a bit more out West at 99h. It might just be slower, but this solution may be a bit different than 6z,
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6z EURO AIFS sent it to Cuba.
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Trend we are fighting over the last 6 hours is suppression.
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I should add that depending on a trailing system is often a component in many of the fails of bigger storms I have tracked. Trailers tend to verify east of what is modeled in my experience.
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I think cold is a given. Within 36 hours, this should be a lot clearer regarding the storm. The 12z AIFS had this yesterday….but there are more pieces of energy after the first storm.
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Usually when we score in E TN, it’s not waiting on redevelopment. That is fools gold all too often. But we can score with a ULL or inverted trough. The trailer is the key, and I hate tracking storms with trailing energy which is the driver.
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The CMC is maybe what I would call a clean pass. The Euro and GFS depend on trailing energy to get totals. The Euro uses trailing energy from the south. The GFS is using a ULL from northwest flo. Very complicated setup and some of those totals are reached in vastly different ways. It makes it look like a Miller A, but only one model has it. The rest requires redevelopment over E TN.
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The 18z GFS represents a suppressed path due to the strong cold front. Now, I don't know this for sure....but this is February and not January. If that system comes up the coast and doesn't slide OTS....it should track back to the northwest. I really don't like the trailing energy piece. I am not even sure if that is real - 50/50 either way on that one. For now, the energy arrives too late and we see simply light snow. If that energy speeds up and catches the front runner, it could change dramatically. Either way, models have gone from one cutter after another to a very suppressed solution.
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The 12z CMC shows the trailing energy scenario really well. BTW, if you all want to put some severe wx stuff in here, have at it. I haven't followed the Saturday stuff. I live in NE TN, and we get a lot less severe weather up here. Now, we do get some...but just less. How bad does the severe threat look for Saturday?
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I agree with John. The 12z Euro was oh so close to a huge storm. Modeling is having a lot of difficulty with a trailing system being involved. I have waited for trailing system snow(picture the gif with the bones) for hours, and it never got here. Until that gets worked out, we can see anything from a skiff to a HECS on modeling. LOL. If that trailer comes in too late, the storm goes to the Carolinas. If it gets here too early, the storm cuts. If it all consolidates(which looks less likely today), then we get a big storm. I haven't posted much today, because there are only weak trends towards less consolidation. But having done this for a long time, sometimes that energy will consolidate at the last minute... Plus, we are in the window where big storms get lost.
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As Holston noted, they have you covered. Five active threads going right now...flooding, pattern thread, obs, banter, and severe.
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Snowfall totals on WxBell don't match the 12z run....somethin' ain't right with that run.
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The 12z Euro has finally run...it looked good. Obligatory -> TIFWIW
