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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    More.....I am trying not to like this. Wave runs a front. Slightly negative tilt.
  2. Carvers Gap
    The CFSv2 is very similar with its setup at 12z...
  3. Carvers Gap
    Precip is AN in eastern areas with that setup as well.....sorry for the flurry of posts.
  4. Carvers Gap
    And honestly, the above is probably a setup where we don't want the NAO to fire. That is EPO driven w/ some SER embedded. We might need a little bit of ridging to our south with that, but we take that 10 out of 10 times. That setup is bringing air right off the pole and from Siberia. We could see some cold air which doesn't modify much with that look.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Really tough to ask for much better than this....
  6. Carvers Gap
    I should add, I am not sure I have seen the Euro Weeklies that cold during the lat 10 days of the run...pretty frigid for an ensemble. BN temps during our coldest week of the year are about all we can ask for at this range. Pretty decent signal from this far out. The Euro Weeklies are now almost out of shoulder season, and can hit targets at range.
  7. Carvers Gap
    The Euro Weeklies do denote a cold shot around Christmas Eve w/ a secondary and tertiary shot coming in successive weeks in January. Is the jig up after Jan 20 or is it a thaw. Either way, January still looks like a month where winter is still in business.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Again, something this winter has just seemed off. I don't know what it is. I definitely think we see warm-ups. That is true for any winter. But my gut says there is more cold in this pattern than what was being depicted by climatology and what we saw/are seeing in seasonal models. My gut can be plenty wrong BTW. Maybe we are just overdue for a normal winter in E TN. I need to go back and look at the 88-89 analog. Seems like that was a warm/dry summer followed by a normal winter...but that is off the top of my head. I haven't looked. I just remember it being hot on the farm in 88 maybe?
  9. Carvers Gap
    This is the CFSv2 500 30 day from 6z for Dec 20-Jan19. 5 of the last 6 runs of the CFS have the trough in the east regardless of color shading. The trough varies in depth. Now, the 0z CFSv2 had the mean 30d trough in the southwest. So, I don't want to misrepresent what the model is depicting. It looks remarkably like the Euro Weeklies ext from yesterday. Its 500 pattern is slightly east of the Euro Weeklies, and I would argue that is a bias of that model(eastern trough default). Now, a lot of this will wobble and sometimes change drastically. I am just showing that the CFSv2 isn't that far off at 500 from the Weeklies. So, while its temp maps at Wxbell are extreme, this is less so if one(mentally) dials back the oranges and blues a bit. I think the wxbell cfsv2 500 maps are still very usable - slightly overdone but the Euro is probably underdone. The temp maps are useful if one just understands they algorithm is overdone. (edit added)
  10. Carvers Gap
    Here is the 30d map at 500 from ~Dec21-Jan21....temps are normal to slighly below.
  11. Carvers Gap
    I took snapshots of the Euro Weeklies progression from Dec 16 to Jan 21. It looks reasonable.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Again, I am not sure the CFSv2 500 charts are off. Temp maps are always cold on WxBell. However, it only takes a little bit of mental adjustment to understand where the troughs/ridges are. The 12/5 Euro Weeklies, CMC Weeklies, and CFSv2 look decently similar for the pattern evolution after Dec 21. I agree with Bam that I don't see the January torch which we have seen during recent years. I don't watch or read a lot from Bam as a few winters ago they tended to switch with every model run. But, I can look with my own two eyes and see the ridge try to go up again either just west of the West Coast or the PNA. There are certainly runs which don't have that. But the majority of runs have a trough developing in the East just after Christmas. Is it right? I think possibly. A trough later in December and early January actually fits La Nina climatology which I think we are in despite the graph not being there yet. I can't tell how strong that cold shot is. We have been talking about it here well before Bam had a video about it - no offense to Bam and no offense taken by his video being posted(I like listening to other forecasts or reading them). ....Again, and I sound like a broken record....the January analog package has some very cold representatives. Some of our best winters have been with a weak La Nina. Some of those analogs are way AN. It is no surprise that LR ext modeling is showing a colder solution. Will it verify? IDK. I tend to lean that January is going to have some colder weeks. The Euro Weeklies have some skill in the 3-4 week range with the long wave pattern. Normally, if the pattern is going to go fully to crap...you can see it on modeling about now. I don't see that - yet. And if that occurs, you can blame me for writing that last sentence!
  13. Carvers Gap
    Interestingly, the GFS Weeklies LR ext has moved to the Euro Weeklies look of retrograding the trough into the West after the warm-up. The 0z EPS and GEPS have that this morning around the 21st.
  14. Carvers Gap
    I think we are going to see that trough to to setup in the Mountain West. For whatever reason, I am slowly coming around to the idea that we are going to have more cold here than my original winter forecast/ideas. January has been wild card in my mind. At this point, it looks like we are going to see part of January turn out cold which is a win in my book. Hope your time with your family is goin as well as it can! The 18z GFS, as John notes, is back in the snow column for the 11-12th. I continue to like that setup around that time frame.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Are their 500 maps off as well? I thought it was just the temp algorithm.
  16. Carvers Gap
    The Euro Weeklies ensemble looks good after Dec 23rd. The control is the opposite. Ensemble looks very good.
  17. Carvers Gap
    The may get better as it is actual winter now, but the seasonals get an F for December(as released in November) - honestly, I am not sure how much more it could miss. January looks like it has a base trough in the Mountain West, but the SER is not as strong for January which (to me) implies some cold intrusion. Below are the side-by-side comparisons of the Nov1 vs Dec1 seasonal releases.
  18. Carvers Gap
  19. Carvers Gap
    Man, the wind is howling. I would guess we easily exceeding 40-50mph gusts on my end of TRI. Truckers are pulled over at rest stops right now. It is not an easy day to be a high profile vehicle on the interstate. I am very surprised no wind advisories have been issues for the valleys of TRI.
  20. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS is a really, really good run for the dec11-12 storm.
  21. Carvers Gap
    The Euro weeklies now support the control from yesterday that I shared for early to mid Jan. Very rare to see that ensemble that cold for week 6. Could be very wrong, but usually it has a warm bias.
  22. Carvers Gap
    I don't know if the Euro is handling the MJO well or not....but it really doesn't want to warm things up on the 12z run. Weeklies are rolling right now...updated in a minute.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Yep. Just has the hallmarks of some bigger winter storms. Cold air incoming. Trending towards the coast. It could end up being a coastal and no impact here, but tough to know right now. Euro is more of a coastal.
  24. Carvers Gap
    I think there is a chance that we are gonna be tracking a pretty big storm around the 11-12th. Modeling was west yesterday. The Canadian and GFS are well east of that today. Even the ICON has it to some extent. I don't have a clear idea on where it will be, but it could be significant. SLP or wave riding a cold front.
  25. Carvers Gap
    That was pretty close to a special run by the 12z GFS. The CMS is close.
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