Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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American LR extended modeling is much warmer than Euro/Canadian products of similar time ranges. I wonder if something has been tweaked or updated in with that model. It is missing cold fronts that it didn't use to....
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The Euro Weeklies ext continue to advertise a pretty decent pattern progression w/ some embedded zonal flow for sure. That said, it wouldn't be a bad winter if that verified.
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The 12z non-AI Euro with a really nice pass around the 21st. I continue to like that timeframe.
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18z artificial intelligence happy hour.
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On a side note, I miss the DGEX. The Euro AIFS has kind of taken its place for me, but the clown maps for that thing were legendary.
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JB was noting that the MJO is forecast to get really quiet in January - I "think" I read the map correctly. Sometimes he has inverted color schemes, and it is the opposite of what I think it is showing. If the MJO signal is weak, that might not be a bad thing considering the Maritime tendency to fire when we don't want it to....
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If you really want to help us out, start planting some expensive stuff that is really sensitive to long bouts of cold and snow! Cause you know what is coming next if you do that. Either that or we can get @Stovepipeto schedule a camper trip to the mountains during January.
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That EPO ridge just wants to hit and hold. It is a bit surprising to see modeling that adamant, but I am sure there is some decent science behind it. It really looks like the base pattern on LR modeling. I know that is John's favorite pattern and for good reason. I hope it holds. I like the NAO, but this is a year it could easily hook into a SER...so, we want it quiet this year.
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In the longer range, this is kind of what I am monitoring. I "think" that if the first half of January goes cold, we might be looking at some colder analogs going forward from their. 95-96"(light version) is an analog which is working well of late. I am NOT calling for that kind of winter. But I wouldn't rule out something like this...a couple more cold shots, warm-up around Christmas, step down cold through the third week of Jan, thaw, early Feb cold, warm last half of Feb, and then March cools back down. January looks a lot like this on the Euro Weeklies w/ some ridging bellying underneath from the southwest. My guess is that we see a pretty variable pattern which normally works well here during January.
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This may well be cold chasing rain. However, if the low backs a little due that leeside low which is showing up on short range modeling, I could see higher elevations on the Plateau, SE KY, SW VA, and areas above 2000' in E TN doing OK. Morristown seems to have a knack for scoring lately. My inlaws live there, and they often do as well as we do in NE TN!
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MRX afternoon disco... Wednesday: A significant influx of dry air will introduce a much colder airmass early Wednesday, causing temperatures to decline throughout the day. The highest temperature on Wednesday is likely to occur just after midnight. The transition to a northerly flow will enhance upslope snowfall across higher elevations. Some valley locations, particularly from far northeastern Tennessee northward into southwestern Virginia, may experience light snow accumulation. Currently, favored higher elevation areas are expected to receive at around 1 inch of snow, with much lower totals in the lower elevations of the valley. As cold temperatures prevail, a deepening surface low to our northeast combined with rapidly advancing high pressure will result in increased wind gusts across higher terrain, potentially reaching near Wind Advisory levels, especially in the Southern Appalachians. Wind chills are forecasted to range from the teens to single digits.
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The 18z RGEM was a decently more aggressive for Weds. See that?
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What is interesting is the Euro AIFS sticking its landings from waaaay out there. It has another cold shot, maybe an ana-front, and major winter storm for the SE just after Dec 20. The GFS seems to really be having a tough time after a decent November. It is not able to see what look to be probably cold shots. Might it be right? Sure. But sometimes it seems like its LR maps are similar to listening to the selection committee tell me why our resume' isn't as good at PSU's or Texas'. AI is like building in strength of schedule. Definitely watching for a possible nasty cold shot from Jan 7-21. I have tried not to say to much about it as that is a long way out there, but it fits this kind of odd modeling that we have been seeing for January.
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The 18z RGEM is pretty much perfect...and we like that model at this range.
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I think we need to start watching for an anafront right before Christmas Eve.
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That cold shot is very apparent on both the CMC and EPS at range....I don't know what is going on with the GEFS. It has been unrealistically warm for several weeks at range. It has been whiffing.
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Models are sniffing out a really cold shot around Dec 22.
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Yes sir!
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I really like the Weeklies and Euro AI today. Been out of pocket. Looks like winter!!!!
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Reading some other forums and seeing comments about how Nino-like the pattern is. I tend to respectfully disagree with that. The bout of extended summer and quick flip to cold are hallmarks of La Nina-eque, downstream surface climatology. Now, I wholeheartedly agree that things seem "off." We have addressed the potential for that for several months. However, I do think we are seeing climatology from the cold set of analogs in play in LR modeling. Is it right? IDK. Now to be clear, analogs help us predict weather....they don't cause weather. Analogs are utilized to see if historic weather patterns are about to reappear. There have been colder patterns during this type of ENSO/SST setup. Also true, a lot of Nina winters kind of run their course by mid January. Some winters come back later like 95-96. To me, this winter has been a tough one to figure out due to the two sets of analogs for January(one set which ended winter after December and one set which was very cold). We are approaching a fork in the road towards late December and the car(weather) hasn't taken a turn to the right or left yet.
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The JMA used to sniff out storms. It is definitely not my "go to," but I do look at it. If you really want to see how long this front stalls, go to Tropical Tidbits for the EURO AIFS 12z run. That front just sits there, and then a wave runs the length of it. The JMA would be about perfect for here. Cold air crashing into a stalled GOM front is my favorite setup for big storms. I am NOT saying that happens, but man... Nice to see modeling hinting at that chance.
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There is a stationary front that sets up around Dec 9th. Cold front hits it around the 11th, and sends a wave up the stalled front.
