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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    Definitely could be overrunning. 93-94 and 95-96 (light versions) are on the table. Those are big analogs, and I am holding back using them for the moment, but they are in the mix. BN temps during our coldest weeks often works out pretty good. Once I see operationals picking this up, I will feel like this dog is gonna hunt.
  2. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS fires the first operational shots of cold around the New Year. It is prob a bit fast, but that will do.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Best I can tell, it looks like a strong cold front is being signaled for sometime between Jan 3-5.
  4. Carvers Gap
    The Euro Weeklies Control run was just frigid. That is the first time in a while that I have seen the control reflect the ensemble. Good run.
  5. Carvers Gap
    LOL. I am glad I asked.
  6. Carvers Gap
    CPF is maybe something-Pacific-forcing? What is the entire acronym? Central Pacific Forcing?
  7. Carvers Gap
    The 12zGFS finally sees what should be....it is cold in early January somewhere in North America. All kidding aside, it looks like the warmup will last from Christmas Day to just around the New Years. It wouldn't surprise me to see it go into the first week of January. The Weeklies (Euro and American) depict a fairly strong cold shot from say Jan 5 - Jan 20th(or just beyond). That is right where we want it. This is how I remember winters as a kid. We would get some minor snow and cold during December(remember I lived in Knoxville during the 70s), and then Jan/Feb were when we expected winter to really do some things. The weather pattern really seems to want to park a ridge where the EPO or PNA regions are. That seems to be the pattern tipping its hand. I do think the trough is going to try to get back into the Mountain West. They have had a really good week of winter weather this week. They will likely see more, but likely us as well. By Christmas, we will have been in the cold pattern since the last week of November. That is about four weeks. Very tough to hold cold at this latitude longer than that. I think we see a warm-up and the cold return shortly after the New Year. I really don't sweat the cold getting scoured out of North America due to a chinook. Chinooks happen. That is why there is a name for it. I imagine if you lived along the eastern foothills of the Rockies for most of the last millennium, a chinook would have been a welcome thing! North America can refill with cold air quite quickly, sometimes within 5-7 days.
  8. Carvers Gap
    I think we are gonna be in good shape when all is said and done.
  9. Carvers Gap
    The real question is whether people in Miami are pulling for equal chances!
  10. Carvers Gap
    The Euro Weeklies bring the trough back during the first week of January. That look connects really well to the 12z EPS run...meaning if you took the EPS, the Weeklies would pick up right where the EPS left off. That is decent continuity.
  11. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GEPS and 12z Euro are showing the pattern reset advertised by the Euro extended modeling right around the New Year.
  12. Carvers Gap
    The Euro Weeklies ext look pretty exceptional today for January cold - really. We can deal with that look all day long. IMHO, that is very 95-96 or 93-94.
  13. Carvers Gap
    This kind of seems like we see the cold hit in pieces prior to Christmas, get a 7-10 warm-up, very cold shot during second and third week of January, warm-up, and then Feb ?????. If this is like 95-96, we will see one more shot in Feb. 18z GFS doesn't look terrible.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, sets up nicely for the second and third week of Jan. Then, probably will have to deal with a rotation through the warm phases for the last ten days or say....then maybe we can score a repeat for mid Feb.
  15. Carvers Gap
    I am just watching this big hp around the 21-22nd. If it stays at that strength, I would be really surprised if some in the forum area don't see at least minor accumulations of snow w/ either a slider, clipper, and/or inland runner. We live in the Upper South, so there plenty of ways to miss...but that is a good setup. Looks like maybe a warm-up after that, but the warm-up has been getting pushed back quite a bit. I do think a western chinook is on tap and spread eastward. Looks like maybe cold returns after the first week of January...and that might be true winter at that point.
  16. Carvers Gap
    The 12z CMC has a similar setup. Are we gonna call that a bowling ball low which just kind of meanders its way through the Upper South?
  17. Carvers Gap
    The interesting thing about recent Nina patterns, they have kind produced these one-off storms. Then, we are done. This pattern is a nickel and dime one. That adds up over time. We got more snow in my neighborhood last night. I have nearly lost count of the number of light dustings we have had so far. That is pretty rare in my local for December 12th! It has also been really windy of late which implies variability in the weather pattern. Variability might be what works in this day and age - the deck gets reshuffled almost weekly. Cold patterns don't hit and hold...so maybe small doses are better??? Either way, no complaints from me on what the GFS has been cooking up inside of d10 for several runs now. I just don't want what it is cooking after Christmas!!!!
  18. Carvers Gap
    1050+ HP coming down the Plains has been a good setup lately for this forum. The 12z GFS has 2 potential winter storms inside of 9 days. The EURO AIFS has been hinting at this 1-2 punch for a few days...maybe 1-2-3. Cold supply and storms appear to be in the system. We just need them in the same place at the same time.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Speaking of the GFS, it hasn't been bad inside of d10....just outside of that. Why do I say that? Well 12z is loaded for bear....
  20. Carvers Gap
    I think American modeling is over-doing the chinook that looks likely just after Christmas. The Euro AIFS and Weeklies control(from yesterday) both have that chinook ending fairly quickly, and only have chinook air flooding the continent for a brief amount of time. The 6z AI has the next cold shot plowing right through it. Again, American modeling is much warmer than any other modeling. To me, the algorithm looks like it has been changed for the model. It is almost completely bling to cold fronts outside of ten days....they ensemble is worse. Anyone have the link to how modeling is scoring?
  21. Carvers Gap
    Maybe what interests me most is an active northern stream which would bring potential upslope snows and clippers into the area between December 20-25th. Looks like the southern branch might also be active, but with less certainty - if one can have any certainty at this range. If this look persists, the chances for at less a minor snowfall increase greatly for at least someone in the forum area to have snow on the ground by Christmas Eve. Travel headache potential would be significant if that persists. ....The Euro AIFS probably gets credit for sniffing out the post Dec 20 cold shot.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Fun and games on last night's model runs!!!
  23. Carvers Gap
    18z is an E TN / DC special. Decent signal for a storm east of the MS.
  24. Carvers Gap
    The 6z ECMWF AIFS unleashes the Arctic late in its run.....brutal cold by Christmas. FWIW.....
  25. Carvers Gap
    Looks like 12z (operational) is more realistic. But the entire American model suite GFS/CFS is way out of step. It might be right, but it looks crazy wonky. I do agree there are times NA is scoured and no cold air remains. The last time we saw that happen was when the GOA low parked itself off the coast of southern Alaska, and flooded Canada with maritime air. I don't think American modeling is right, but it certainly could be...I just don't think it is.
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