Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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Pretty rare to see the EPS with 10-11 degree BN departures. 12z has it over the TN Valley forum. I would say at this point, the ingredients for a major snowstorm are beginning to show up on modeling for Jan5-20. That is right smack in the middle of our coldest climatology. To get those types of departures during our coldest time of the year is impressive.
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We may see temps below zero, especially at higher elevations. BN temps are COLD during January. That is an overrunning setup if I have ever seen one. I am not saying that is here, but somewhere east of the MS. The GFS brings portion of the eastern valley into low single digits with no snow on the ground. That is what the Weeklies have been hinting at.
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The 12z GFS is on board now. Complete cave, and maybe even more extreme than other modeling. As for how things are set up right now, I really don't mind it. I have had snow in the air for the past two days - more days than I can count so far. It is important in this area to remember that winter really doesn't start here (historically) until late December and early January in the valleys. So, I couldn't be happier with how the season has begun. Looks like a 7-10 day warmup beginning on Christmas. Then, it sure looks like the bottom comes out. Deterministic models are now seeing the cold which is what we want to see in deterministic models. Ensembles have it. Good connections. That ridge really wants to stay out west. Honestly, we all may want a break towards the end of January should all of that verify. Pattern looks pretty loaded at 12z(GFS).
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If that high latitude setup manages to trap the PV, could get interesting. I have not seen that yet, but it could with that setup.
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Spitting flakes In Sullivan Co this evening. Man, it is freaking cold. The WC is just a wee bit chilly!
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The GEFS went from worst to first in about four runs today as it again caves to the EPS/GDPS models. If we keep it in the old tomorrow, very good sign. That sucker has a monster AK ridge and a -NAO. Fingers crossed. As we have seen during the past few years, that look can go very wrong(WAR city), but as is....nice run.
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GEFS ext.....initiate the -NAO protocol. Very cold run for that model. At some point, we should see model ensembles begin to trend in one direction or the other. Good trends today. Let's see if they hold. For now(stress that), the colder analogs look more likely to win out for January.
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Yeah, the 6z GEFS cooled considerably in the east for early January. Let's see if that continues to trend that way. I do think January gets pretty cold. However, I don't trust the GFS at this time of year - been burned too many times both cold and hot with that model. However, the Euro Weeklies have also burned me. Really, it is the last part of the first week that is supposed to see a return to season and cold. EURO AIFS/GFS vs EPS/Euro deterministic/CPC/GDPS/GEFS(wobbly support from GEFS) Considering the warm bias of the two on the left, I still like what the Euro Weeklies and American Weeklies portray as the likely result. If you follow Richard G West on Twitter, the GFS is like that. The dude is punking people with many tweets, but he sometimes throws some actual breaking news into the mix before anyone else has it. So the GFS is kind of like the Richard G West of the news world. Amazing that January was a question mark back in August, and it still is with twelve days to go. I think a good run of winter between Jan 5-20...after that is a considerable question mark.
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Crazy to see how differently the EP/GEP and GEFS are right now after d10. They converged a bit yesterday, and have diverged again overnight. Even the GFS operational is on an island. The GFS really struggled with the cold during the past few weeks. If it gets beat this time, I am going to have to retire it for a bit. OTH, if it wins....big win for American modeling. I won't say it isn't right - I learned a long time ago not to discount outliers in weather modeling. However, it looks really off. The 6z GFS is certainly plausible given climatology, and is one scenario we need to guard against....that the warm isn't just a 7 day warm-up. FTR, I do think it is wrong, but I do consider it nonetheless. Sometime in science evidence is presented which asks us to consider another solution.
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I know it is hour 384 on the 12z GFS, but can we all admit that it would have been fun to see the next few slides?
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12z GFS (WAAAAY out there around 11) is showing an Apps snowstorm of 1-2'.
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The big moves overnight were the GEFS at 6z finally caving to the EPS. That is big, because they haven't been on the same page for a week or so.... Looks like a pretty significant cold shot inbound sometime after the New Year.
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Two things I have done to bring about all of this weather. Last week I put windshield wipers on the car...it has rained almost every day since. I need to remember this during droughts. I also did my leaves today....I can assure you that later tonight there will be gale force winds IMBY. The wind will blow from the yard with the most leaves still yet to be picked up - this is a certainty. I have no idea what combo makes it snow. I do have a snow shovel from 14-15. I may put that out front. Maybe I we see our 4-wheel drive vehicles...that'll make it snow.
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Euro control weeklies look eerily similar to the 95-95 winter progression as best as I can remember it from personal experience. This is not as severe, but formidable. One shot to start the month, relaxes, big shot to end the month. The ensembles would be colder if they verified, and not smoothed.
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The 12z GFS with an inland runner around Dec 30. It pops as a result of a cutter which effectively ends the warm-up. The GFS brings a pretty chill regime after that. Maybe a slider with that setup if it verifies.
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You are doing good work over there! Keep it up!!!!
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I have come to a similar conclusion, but I am just model watching!!! LOL. The GEFS ext actually looks better than the Euro Weeklies tonight which is a BIG change. That EPO/PNA ridge looks like the default for at least the first two months of winter. That trough will try to go into the Mountain West for February, but as those wavelengths shorten up...that trough will kick eastward 1-2 times. I like the setup. I did not like the setup prior to October. However, that colder set of analogs is maybe going to make some noise for Jan 5-20. No promises at this range, but fun to watch. Great share.
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I just want a good East coast blizzard to track.
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Cumberland Plateau has been like tornado alley lately. Ya'll can keep those babies over there! LOL - sort of LOL.
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12z EPS shows the beginning of what should be BN heights over the SE for an extended time....~3 weeks. Cold begins to fill the trough at the end of week one of Jan. Good to see ensembles with that look.
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That last week should be warm enough to get us slightly above average. The month as a whole will have been below average for temps. So, I don't sweat averages. Slight above average in E TN has meant decent winter weather at times. Either way, both the 12z Euro and GFS are starting to advertise a sharp cool down after the new year. Hopefully (and I think it is), what we are seeing is the beginnings of 2-3 weeks of cold temps to start January. I think week two into week three will be the coldest if weeklies(both GEFS and Euro) are correct. As for Europe getting cold, that is generally a good sign for the eastern US as that correlates to colder temps. I think we are gonna be just fine this winter. I could be wrong. The only thing one really has to be careful of....is whether this upcoming warmup is longer than advertised. That has happened during recent winters. I do think it lasts around a week this time. The strat warm stuff can really cause havoc in modeling. Again, I think we come up good this time around. The good thing is that we can see the cool down already starting to peak around the corder at d14-16.
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All of E TN is roughly 2 degreesF BN. Today will put a dent into that, but we should recover some of that by this weekend. I don't know that I want the TPV getting broken up, but we may be left with no choice in the matter - looks to me like the GFS has some pretty significant warming is taking place between 10-50mb. At 50mb, it gets jostled pretty good. Again, I don't want it wrapped up tight at high latitudes....but seems like (of late) the predominance of cold goes to Asia w/ a split. But that is pretty strong warming on the 12z GFS. My guess(stress guess) is that warming may well be a precursor to a -NAO later in January. Warming between 10-50mb seems to be the dashboard warning light for that during the past several years. Again, not sure I want to see the NAO fire just yet as well. January looks pretty decent without too many bells and whistles.
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This seems to be a winter where we just get lots of little snows, but those winters can prove to be decently satisfying as there is plenty to track. TRI has 1.1" of snow for December, and that is not bad against climatology(even older climatology). Nickels and dimes....
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I think we take this....The 500 looks really good BTW on a week by week basis. The GEFS ext also looks similar. The locked-in torch was my concern before winter. Again, this leans towards colder analogs. January won't be a slam dunk until Jan 31st!!! Lots of uncertainty, but that ridge out West(eastern Pac) seems to really want to be there. A little Easter egg at the end of this...how sweet it would be to hold that through Jan, and then the NAO fires for February(when it is less likely to hook into an eastern ridge).
