Carvers Gap

To clarify…apparent temp changes. Below zero for most of TRI…single digit actual temps. 60 degrees colder for apparent and 40-50 degrees colder for actual temps.

The 0z Euro must have had something go sideways overnight - was really warm compared to the past gazillion runs. The 12z run was SIXTY degrees colder after 300!!!

12z Euro is thus far back to general continuity after a weird hiccup at 0z

Two small events and one bigger event. I suspect we nickel and dime this, but a bigger storm would have snow on the ground for a while if the pattern stays as cold as the GFS portrays. Is it right?

Pretty respectable 5-15” of snow over the eastern forum area for that run. TRI had 10-15”.

Nice storm on the 12z GFS after 300. Pretty typical of what ensembles have been showing the past few days on their snow maps.

Now I am in the correct thread. Pretty decent 12z GFS run incoming. The CMC is similar temp wise but without the wave. The past two Euro AIFS runs have picked up on the ridge that slides past after the first in a series of probable cold shots. I think the AIFS is far too aggressive in pushing the PNA into the western Plains. The GFS and CMC look like a good progression to me. Is the GFS back to normal…that IDK. I suspect that little wave eventually gets suppressed, but something to watch for future runs. The second cold shot could be a doozy.

GEFS ext 30d 500 map...AN heights over Alaska, AN heights over the Davis Straits(need that a little to the northwest IMHO), EPO ridge, trough east of Hawaii, trough pushing into the Aleutians, and trough in the eastern half of the US. If forced to find a negative, it is that the negative NAO is too strong. But if you go back and look at some decent winter patterns, they look a lot like this. FTR, I suspect the NAO is overdone, and the EPO is underdone.

The GEFS ext(Euro equivalent of the weeklies) is rolling right now. It is equally impressive.

This is old school stuff for sure. I have been super hesitant to post about it lately. I have been staring at maps similar to this for 2-3 weeks and trying to stay reasonably quiet about it. These are the cold analogs for January which most of us have discussed on this. I am not totally sure of the drivers of this(but analogs have precedence for it), but what worries me a bit more is that modeling is really beginning to lean colder. There are a lot of folks in the mountains who would struggle with a cold winter due to Helene. Hopefully, local agencies are gearing up. If it is a false alarm, so be it. But modeling has looked pretty wild today. We will see if it holds. Real feels in the mountains are below zero on a lot of these model runs.

Last of the maps for a bit. Pay attention to the AO map. That has been a missing piece during the past few winters. Here is the 18z GFS deterministic AO. If it goes there, game on......

This is the CFSv2 from 12z. This is for all of January. I actually like this a bit better as the confluence on this map is nearly perfect.

The Euro Weeklies continue w/ the goods for January....You can see the storm tracks - slider, cutters, inland runners, and Nor'easter's possible.

Details are understandably sketchy at this range, and modeling is accentuating differing pieces of energy. The 12z Euro managed to get this during the 12z suite(mostly a slider around 1/6).

Thought I would grab these and share. Do I trust the GFS or GEFS? Nope, but what a reversal! Here are some thoughts on the 18z GEFS. I have to say, the 12z Euro wasn't too far behind this. The CMC and GEPS were way colder. A lot of this is just now coming into focus. So, we will proceed with caution. But since most of us wait all summer to look at maps like this, it is fun to discuss. Pretty massive storm signals for early to mid January. Image 1: That time frame probably is going to have to be watched. The NAO is a bit forced, but it still works. Image 2: This is probably the best timeframe. PNA/EPO ridge. And...confluence. \ Image 3: The single day temps are frigid for an ensemble. It is worth noting that this is during our coldest month of the year. Those are ~10 degree below normal departures for a 7d time frame. Image 4: 12z GEFS snow map for d1-16. When the NE TN map gets to 5-6" of snow, probably best to pay attention on my part. It is Christmas, and I had planned on taking a break today. However, we have been blessed with some crazy fun stuff to discuss. So, the dishes are done, and I am sitting down to look at stuff for a bit!

That is a pretty insane analog package by CPC for d8-14. I have no idea if they are right, but thought it was worth a share as those folks at CPC get paid to do this.

Just a quick break for me this evening. This is the 30d 500 map that the Euro Weeklies rolled with today....If we had BN heights east of Hawaii, it would be BBQ sauce(to quote the great Ted Lasso). But that is pretty much BBQ sauce right there as is.

2018...the rivers froze here. I may have had a pipe bust. That was one of those winters if it had snowed a couple of times, it would have taken a month to dig out. Good post. I added the CPC analogs above for today. I can never remember about 1977...it was stellar, right? If so, 70% of their analogs are from benchmark winters.

Did you see Cosgrove's comments on FB this afternoon? I would post them, but kind of feel like I shouldn't post his personal comments from FB. He was banging the drum.

Speaking of analogs, checkout the CPC's analogs for d8-14. Look at the ones which are double weighted. 19850109 20001227 19951229 19850118 19810103 19951224 19970110 19770121 19770115 20091221

This is waaaay out there, but....here is the run total. The run is even more impressive at 500. Happy Hour, indeed.

The 18z (at 500 anyways) is probably not a super realistic run. But holy Batman, what a block up top. That is a pretty extreme run.

Models have been dishing today. I won't go through all of the potential scenarios, but some really cold air masses are interacting w/ northern stream energy and/or southern stream energy. Pretty good table being set. Could it be a head fake? Sure, we live in the Upper South - that is the norm. That said, what is being shown on modeling is a pretty textbook setup for winter weather in the East.

18z w/ storm number one around d10.

Nice little snow mean(total run) on the 12 GEFS for portions of E TN. 5-6" of snow for TRI.