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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Awesome. Thanks! I think the JAMSTEC has flipped warm due to the Nino being potentially stronger. Not a slam dunk, snow winter. However, if it is slow to get to the moderate level(assuming it gets there) then we could still see a weaker Nino reflected for seasonal wx.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Jax, can you see its corresponding temps for DJF for NA?...I noticed that at least one recent run had departed from its cold winter forecast and was very warm. If we have a moderate Nino, all bets are off here regarding winter IMO. However, I wonder if we might still feel some effects of a weak El Nino as it will just be getting started...before it goes moderate.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Been an excellent tomato, carrot, potato, bean, pepper, squash, and okra year. Probably my best tomato year in a long, long time - the copper spray as a fungicide has been more than money. Will try to post some pics, but am out of memory space for my account. During the last couple of years, I was tucking-in large portions of the garden early due to dry conditions. I still have a good part of the garden still "in play" right now.
  4. Carvers Gap
    I can handle temps in the mid 80s during the worst of summer, even upper 80s. Every day we steal from the grips of Dog Days is one less day from potentially the hottest time of the year. Kind of like the reverse of winter when we sometimes get AN temps during the middle of our coldest time frame in January. The LR models and Euro Weeklies(see also the JAMSTEC that Jax posted...) seem to be transitioning to a Nino-is pattern. Seems like they jumped the gun once...but I suspect this is a legit transition now w the amount of rain we are receiving.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Good find. The Euro Weeklies from yesterday likely support that. BN heights and AN precip over the SE, though they certainly have the coldest temps in the lee of the Rockies. That look is pretty consistent throughout its 46 day run with maybe some weakening of the cold in the lee of the central Rockies.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Flash, great share and post. I wonder if time of day saved Nashville along w the ideas that you mentioned? I think NE TN took it on the chin because the storms fired and held together late in the day into the evening. But totally agree that systems that turn sharp, right-turning systems have to be watched.
  7. Carvers Gap
    I might have missed a post about this...We were out of town last week as mentioned in the banter thread. However, because we were two hours behind in the Rockies, I saw the thunderstorm lines approaching Kingsport. I actually contacted my family to let them know that they were incoming. Colonial Heights go absolutely hammered. My house was without power for 24 hours after initially not being without power. A tree came down the next night which I assume was damaged on Friday. As of last night some homes had been without power for 48 hours. Heck, I even think the NOAA transmitter was knocked out... I would not be surprised if other posters in the area were/are without power. Cooks Valley was hit pretty hard as well. @Windspeed, how did you fair? https://www.wjhl.com/local/nws-noaa-weather-radio-transmitter-knocked-out-by-storms/1316293579 Here is the Kingsport power outage story.... https://www.wjhl.com/local/thousands-without-power-in-the-tri-cities/1313358631 Here are some slide shows... https://www.wjhl.com/news/viewer-photos-720-severe-thunderstorms/1315189683 https://www.wjhl.com/local/nightwatchman-pinned-inside-truck-tree-crashed-onto-camper-at-warriors-path-state-park/1314446733 https://www.timesnews.net/gallery/Friday-night-storms
  8. Carvers Gap
    As Jeff noted, not sure the North Pacific helps us....but that is a decent look if maybe on the "too warm" side for the Nino. Now, what is interesting is the EC of NA w those above normal temps. Looks like Noreaster city w a Nino in place - just a layman's opinion on my part so TIFWIW.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Blight update...been trimming out the diseased foliage, rain has eased up which slows the spread, and I am using organic Copper Fungicide by Bonide. Spreading has been reduced by about 90%. Also added fish emulsion to each plant.
  10. Carvers Gap
    GREAT info, Stovepipe. I would definitely like to buy trees from a place of similar latitude. The sites that I use currently for heirlooms are... https://www.rareseeds.com ...and I do still use Seedsavers and Southern Exposure. I get my sweet potato slips from a TN farm... https://tatorman.com
  11. Carvers Gap
    So far, this looks like it will be a good year for squash(have cool Italian and Lebanese heirlooms that I think will produce...Rigosa Friulana and Lebanese, respectfully), okra, melons, strawberries, and beans. As mentioned above, I think my tomatoes will be average in productions. Last year, I had 96 lbs of sweet potatoes pulled from a 25' row. I will gladly take half of that. Those things were massive. The sweet potatoes should do well again this year. I am trying a variety of fingerling potatoes again this year of a bit of an absence. My main crop of potatoes are Cranberry(All Red) and German Butterball.
  12. Carvers Gap
    I am definitely considering fruit trees...however, deer are a HUGE problem in my neighborhood. My garden has a 6' fence which deter them, because these deer are relatively and thankfully short. I have a standard Rio Grande fence for the yard which is barely an inconvenience for them - the aforementioned garden fence is Fort Knox w a lower level of chicken wire embedded in the ground to stop groundhogs. I suppose I could cage each tree until they are big enough - would make mowing a pain though. I want to plant plums and apples. I found some dwarf varieties that will work in terms of space. I will likely plant some in the fall if time permits. I had intended to this spring. Keep us updated. Hey, it is raining so much and w the high humidity....I can barely keep my yard mowed! LOL.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Thank you for the post and stop by often! I normally trim the yellow leaves off...sometimes I wonder if I spread it by working in the tomatoes by doing this. I usually try to make sure the plants are dry before working in them, and that my scissors are cleaned after each use. I also put diseased plant material well away from the garden. I do rotate my tomatoes. About half of my plants are hybrids that are resistant to blight. However, we have had a period of near tropical warmth and humidity....that is a killer in my garden. Now, I only have one or two plants where the yellowing has begun. I like @Stovepipe 's compost tea idea. I may have to resort to Daconil as a fungicide. I have tried to be generally organic in my garden practices over the past few years, but that can be tough at this latitude w the nightshade family. I did resort to using Sevin this year to hold off some bugs that were in my cucumbers and also in my watermelons. I think one practice that I will discontinue is using wood chips as garden path material near the tomatoes. I have read that chips sometimes can weaken tomato plants. I should get a decent crop, but late season tomatoes may be doomed in my garden - LOL. Another solution might be to plant tomatoes that are early producers? That way they can beat the blight. What I am really looking for is something to slow down the situation - compost tea and Daconil are probably the most realistic fixes. Stove, how do you make your compost tea?
  14. Carvers Gap
    I will add that the quickly warming weather has put the kibosh on my fava beans. They needed just normal temps for May....they are similar to peas in that they need it cool. I still may get a few. Ah well, such is life.
  15. Carvers Gap
    @StovepipeJust tagging on to your comment in the pattern thread...my garden has gone nuts! That said, I am worried that this humidity is going to allow tomato blight to take hold. Do you have anything that you apply to your tomatoes to keep them from getting the blight that begins as yellow leaves on the bottom of the plant and then works its way up - anti fungal spray or fertilizer?
  16. Carvers Gap
    Thanks, roll tide. Good info!
  17. Carvers Gap
    Right now I have lettuce, radishes, broccoli, cabbage, strawberries, rhubarb, potatoes, and fava beans planted. Fava beans are now easily my favorite early, early season crop. Those suckers can survive anything. And they look cool too! Still have a ton to put in the ground. Just ordered some peppers last night. I know it sounds crazy, but getting plants by mail is pretty easy. The plants normally hold-up well during shipping. Ordered sweet potatoes last night from a local Tennessee company. My focus this season will be on Italian heirlooms and Middle Eastern heirlooms, specifically from Iraq and Syria. Italian beans and squashes have a very rich taste. Middle Eastern heirlooms are in serious trouble...so I am growing 3-4 varieties here this year. I like history...so maybe that helps. I also grow several Hispanic varieties of peppers. They have just the right amount of pop when making Mexican dishes. I am trying fingerling potatoes again this year along w a staple russet, German Butterball. I grew peanuts last year and they did well. However, not enough yield in my medium-sized garden to justify the space. Now, if I had a large garden...I would plant peanuts every year. Awesome plant and easy to grow - if you can keep squirrels and chipmunks from digging up the seedlings. They know that a seed is at the base of it. Makes me want to go full Caddyshack on those buggers.
  18. Carvers Gap
    That would be pretty much awesome.
  19. Carvers Gap
    When the Nina hit the max low during the past two cycles....it was very, very dry (on the extreme end of things) here in the eastern Valley. Look at when the Gatlinburg fires occurred and when we hit that extraordinary dry spell during the winter that just passed. I think one thing that we can say is that a Nina coming after a super Nino will likely be warm. However, if it arrives after a weaker ENSO state, extremes will occur. Some good lessons likely to be learned from that graph. Was the winter of 10-11 warm or cold? Just wondering because that was a strong Nina after a strong Nino.
  20. Carvers Gap
    That does not look good. Any updates on those cells and what happened on the ground?
  21. Carvers Gap
    When is the last time that we had three consecutive La Nina winters?
  22. Carvers Gap
    But keep in mind some of those are very good years, we just missed by chance. '62 is the benchmark year for what a -NAO can do. We just missed by chance that year. Pretty sure not all areas missed on snow, especially far eastern areas and NE TN during 62. Interesting discussion for sure. Again, thanks a ton for everyone's hard work!
  23. Carvers Gap
    The odds of everything being exactly correct are very low. We can get snows during bad patterns and miss during good patterns. Many of the very big snows in the eastern Valley during March I am willing to bet occurred during -NAOs. That is unlikely to be as true for points to our west. But I do add again, rarely are things perfect. We don't have to have multiple things in our favor...just a few things that work really well such as a -NAO or +PNA and/or a broad, full latitude block which is my favorite. What we need is a general pattern look. Also, the -QBO is definitely correlated w -NAOs and very snowy winters in NE TN. The tricky thing about the QBO is there is a difference in QBO that has just turned negative and is falling and one that is rising though still negative. Off the top of my head, a -QBO that is rising near neutral can be very warm during winter...but double check that. The best QBO is one that drops during late fall or early winter like we had....ENSO is also a big factor which is currently in transition.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Oh, we want a locked in -NAO in NE TN, unless you are in a place for upslope snow. Otherwise, we need Miller As on my side of the Valley. -NAOs slow the pattern enough to produce them. One thing to keep in mind is that the Plateau westward usually requires a different look and they do indeed need the Pacific to cooperate. We need the Atlantic over here. Crazy, huh? The mediocre values IMO are because the NAO begins to decay as you mention. Most storms occur as the values begin to rise after bottoming out like your original maps. It has to be strong before good patterns emerge for us. The Weeklies have the NAO barely hitting neutral during the second half of March and early April. -NAOs are more important for E TN because we can actually catch the fetch off the Atlantic for big coastal...middle and west usually do not. Great work!
  25. Carvers Gap
    Here is the d10-15 mean on the 0z EPS. For comparison...not exact but interesting.
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