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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Definitely can see model bias in they AM's model runs. Winter precip threats on the 6z GFS(progressive) and rain on the Euro(tends to be amped a bit much). Though, just looking at recent events and the trends for those, the Euro is probably more likely to be correct. The CMC also has a threat as well. If any of these slps take the low road, then they will need to be watched. Spring systems are notoriously late bloomers on modeling. Though the past two or three suites are definitely looking more liquid than frozen. An active STJ looks to persist. Speaking of model busts(I had mentioned this earlier), the Mountain West was expecting a lower than normal water year. I saw a pick of a fly shop in Montana with snow half way up the side of the building. It is going to be a good water year out there. Just a couple of years ago, much of the nation was experiencing severe drought. The Tennessee Valley has often been a place of feast/famine regarding precip...great example of this over the past five years. My least favorite event is a moderate La Nina summer....looks like we avoid that this upcoming summer.
  2. Carvers Gap
    My earlier comment was regarding tracking a snowstorm and the rain snow line...I don't think anyone wants more heavy rain. I do think we are in a tight spot now that we have had so much rain that has actually preceded Spring. I am definitely looking over my shoulder for signs that this pattern of repetitive rainfall over the forum area sets up shop again. Really, we have not had a break from precip since November. We had warm days and boring wether during the first 2/3 of fall. Since then, the precip has been plentiful. We really need to settle in to just a normal frequency for precip soon.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Something else that I have noticed over the years, we want the system fairly suppressed at five to six days out. March systems are notoriously underdone and tend to jog well north of early modeling. So, some of these suppressed systems are a good sign. If we are right on the edge, it is likely pulling north of our area. Just something to watch. Again...really want to emphasize that it is important to just enjoy the ride and tracking at this point. I pretty much take everything w a dose of salt right now until within four days. Window still looks good. Seem like there are 3-4 pieces of energy rolling through beginning around Sunday. Modeling is still trying to "figure out" which system to emphasize. Looks like some of that energy takes the low road. Going to need cooperation w temps and time of day. The next three suites(meaning 0z and 12z) are fairly important IMHO. A bit of a long shot...but at least we have something to track.
  4. Carvers Gap
    All three operationals are showing a decent window from d6-10. Again, nice big highs in the northern Plains w a portion of those highs spreading eastward - banana high type stuff. It is unlikely that any model has the details correct at this point, but the setup might actually be there for one, final legit window(famous last words). Looks remarkably similar to early winter. 30 day SOI is now around -12. MJO is about to cycle through phase 2-3 which is decent for winter weather. NAO, PNA, AO are not super favorable. However, the EPO is forecast to be negative for the next ten days. The EPO has been a key driver this winter. The other thing is that we may be catching it right before it pops positive...rising or falling signals are good indicators for a stormy pattern.
  5. Carvers Gap
    The 0z EPS has a great late winter/early spring(I count every snowflake in my winter count FTR) look. Big, cold highs pressing south into the front range of the Rockies and then pressing eastward. There looks to be 2-3 systems in the day 7-10 range that might have to be watched. Everyone knows the rules about this time of year...even though I count it on my winter totals, it is all bonus stuff. So, I don't get overly invested at this time of year because climatology is working against us in the valleys and for those at lower latitudes in the forum area. However, with those big highs...latitude might actually be less of an issue. Do we finish winter the we way started it? Certainly looks like we have a shot at doing that. I also like this time of year, because it is usually the last time(before next winter) that our weather community gets to track winter events. Feast or famine. Throw everything out the window in early March. Anything can happen. And for once, some of these threats are inside of d7 and inside of d10. Not constantly having to wait for a d10-15 pattern.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Some good looks on the operational runs of the 0z Euro, 6z GFS, and 0z CMC. The good thing is that some of these threats are now under 200h. Not going to add much as it looks like folks above have covered the threat. Looks like those strong HPs are still in play for early March. Give me those and an active STJ and let's see what happens. Reminds me a lot of late November and early December.
  7. Carvers Gap
    MRX with a great write-up about the event as it relates to E TN.... https://www.weather.gov/mrx/hydroevent?platform=hootsuite
  8. Carvers Gap
    Byron Begley of Little River Outfitters writes a fantastic fly fishing blog for GSMNP. He also does a great job in talking about river flows. Here is a link to his discussion about where river levels are currently compared to historical averages in the Smokies. He also notes which roads(and why) certain roads are closed in the Park. This article was written this morning. Also, check out that 1994 flood stage for Little River in 1994. I remember that one. Just incredible. They had to rebuild the road from the Y to Elkmont. Reinforcement boulders the size of vans were washed away that year. https://littleriveroutfitters.com/pages/fishing/report.htm
  9. Carvers Gap
    Thanks, Holston. Radarscope showing heavy rain southwest of Knoxville.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Anyone have a nice, hi-def rainfall map(won't include future amounts over E TN) for the past seven days to the present for the forum area?
  11. Carvers Gap
    I watch the levels for Little River and the Doe during spring so as to know when to safely fish(wade) those early season hatches at either Roan Mountain State Park or in GSMNP. Two things...it will take some time for that to settle back to median flow with no rain at all(likely a couple of weeks). The other, it won't take much rainfall at all in order to bump that right back up to flood stage. One time I fished the Doe and the graph looked good when I left the house, but there had been some showers on the mountain a few hours earlier. I noticed an uptick similar to the Feb 11th one where it spiked up and looked like it was coming back down....just that little downward hitch on that blue line above as it soars upward. Well, I though it was coming back down and had peaked. So, we hopped in the car and headed for the state park. Nope. It was a torrent. We tried throwing some streamers, but it was just too much. Got home and the graph was rolling. For that entire spring, the river was very susceptible to any rain. Great share, Tellico. Great illustration of a river "stepping up" over time.
  12. Carvers Gap
    I am all for those totals being backed-down. 3-4" is about the max that we can handle here before it gets ugly. My area that I jog is now under water and seems like the "base state" for that current area - meaning it is out of its banks and not receding quickly. We can probably handle 3-4" over the period of a week, though there will likely be urban flooding etc. The bigger numbers in SE TN and west of that are trouble for the TN River system. I was commenting earlier that the absolute thing that we don't want in the LR is a big snowstorm in the mountains followed by another active STJ firehose that melts it all at once. Folks in the foothills communities know that is bad business.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Man, forgot about that. Everything here is really high. The mountain streams and rivers were out of their banks on Friday afternoon. The were barely back in by Saturday AM.
  14. Carvers Gap
    That is a nasty looking line. Really pulling up the warm air in front of it on SSW/SW winds....
  15. Carvers Gap
    Good call, @jaxjagman! You all keep us updated. We are nearing record highs in the eastern valley. TRI is just four degrees from it and TYS is just one degree from it. Should be plenty of warmth for those storms to work with over here.
  16. Carvers Gap
    @Stovepipe, been waiting on the end-of-the-year season wrap up. No worries as I know that you mentioned that you have been working like crazy. Just wondering how your garden did this year? Another great year for sweet potatoes here. Bell peppers did really well as did okra. My watermelons did ok, but I think they are heavy feeders...and I need to feed them more. Carrot crop was good. Tomato crop was good. I got less cucumbers this year, but I think that was "gardener error" on my part. First seed catalogs for 2019 have begun to arrive.
  17. Carvers Gap
    I posted this recently in the winter thread while discussing how it seemed suspicious that the GEFS and EPS were placing long term BN heights over AK. To answer your question, if you look at the El Nino graphic, notice how the Pacific jet is working underneath the AN heights in AK and the West Coast. The cold drives down that ridge and intersects w the jet underneath the ridge, hopefully somewhere in our area. You can also see something similar during a Nina, but the confluence(joining and area of phasing) of the two jets is over the northern Rockies. The Rockies during last year's La Nina set snow records in Billings and surround areas. We like El Ninos because the confluence is over the East Coast. What we want is split flow where storms are undercutting a ridge over western North America vs a ridge over the Pacific centered just east of Hawaii. To add to that w like a -NAO over Greenland(high pressure) that causes the jet to buckle right long the EC. It slows the storms that form and forces them to turn north...also allows for easier confluence because it basically stops up the jet. Great thread idea, eastknox.
  18. Carvers Gap
    If you get a big PNA ridge out west or EPO ridge, sometimes energy will sneak under the ridge. So, basically you still get cold being sent south by the western ridge and precip cutting under that western ridge. If we are fortunate, the system(preferably entering at the latitude near Los Angeles) will slide under the ridge and connect w cold air being sent south. We hope that confluence will happen near the East Coast. That is what some might call a big dog pattern.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Realized the same thing this afternoon. Same deal here. Any updates on timing for the forum area would be great.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Nah, man. I think you all will be right. If that cold is anywhere close to being what is on the EPS, I have a difficult time seeing the back half of December getting us back to normal. Same deal with this month. As for severe, I just want some decent wind to knock these last leaves down. Today has been good for that. Right now, I still have like two more weeks of leaves thanks to this tree in my front yard! It always drops them last. Also in terms of severe(pretty much a novice on my part), but I thought today how strong this front was that brought in the cold. Seems like we are in a pattern with strong fronts and those can definitely favor storms. We are also in the time frame where I think if we see severe near the mountains that snow follows within two weeks...or something like that.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Looks like the mini blob in the north PAC has weakened some. Equatorial areas look pretty steady.
  22. Carvers Gap
    I hear you. I have learned a ton from this thread. It is a unique thread to the entire greater forum I believe. Our severe thread may be an original as well. Just dishing out a compliment to Jax and the gang for expanding our knowledge.
  23. Carvers Gap
    This continues, year after year, to be an underrated thread. Some really great info in here. Strong work!
  24. Carvers Gap
    I will be surprised if this gets to moderate before late winter....someone mentioned that in one of the threads, maybe Jeff. So, you think it looks warmish due to December? Normal for January and February will get the job done.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Seems like that has a trough east of HI and one in the SE(both good teleconnections) w marginal source regions for cold. IMHO, that is indeed a decent storm track...rainy looking but maybe we can steal a few wet snows from that look. I would be surprised if the northern Plains were warm. I think we will have a net trough w cold diving in from Canada(Canadian air and not Arctic for the most part) through the Plains w the SER fighting like crazy all winter. That really looks like that model wants a moderate Nino which I am not sure verifies...going to be a close call between good and meh.
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