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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    We are roasting up here. Just one degree away from our fourth record high in a row. Unless the airport gets some wind from a thunderstorm...they have about two hours to get one more degree higher. Looks probable. My hope is that we see these much above temps exit sometime later next week...that is my timeframe for some potential relief(day 9-15). Until then, ugh. This pattern has been a fairly resilient one to steal a phrase from the infamous Butch Jones. Looks like we get a break during the reload w some AN heights building over the top along the Canadian border. Pretty incredible how warm the last few falls have become...hopefully we see things at least balance out during the coming years. September is not supposed to be a summer month. LOL. Have a good weekend! And hey, looks like the Kansas vs UT game time was set for basketball!
  2. Carvers Gap
    We have officially recorded three straight record highs. If we hit 94 today, we tie a fourth. Can't be many times that we have hit four straight at TRI...15 straight days without any recorded rainfall at TRI though there were some sprinkles in the area yesterday.
  3. Carvers Gap
    This is a GREAT place for those not comfortable yet(on the pattern discussion forum) to place their observations. We really need some more folks from the western areas of our sub-forum to place observations here. We actually use those more than you know. Today has been HOT in the Tri-Cities with the third straight record high falling as we speak. Heat index is 96 out there. Feels like a horribly hot summer day. Just brutal. Another year and another hot Fall...I really don't like those. We do have some great discussion in the Fall Pattern Discussion and ENSO threads about when this heat may FINALLY break. Cause really for folks that cool weather, this sucks. LOL.
  4. Carvers Gap
    You all have had it good. Not sure why NE TN has been catching the brunt of the heat this summer. We have set two consecutive record highs prior to today at TRI. The forecast high of 95 today will smash the old record if it verifies. Tomorrow's forecast high will be close depending on which point and click forecast are verifies - barring any storms. So, likely three straight records with a 50/50 chance for a fourth straight. Hopefully, once we get to next weekend...this extreme stuff is off the table for a long time.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I agree. I thought the Nino look was going to diminish more than it has based on last month's trajectory and outlook, but the recent positive look might actually hold through winter. Definitely has cooled off in the eastern ENSO regions, but still likely to produce a weak Nino signal, maybe a Modoki. The SOI seems to agree the Nino effects are still there, because it is really tanking. Might be one of these winters where the weak El Nino signal gradually fades...
  6. Carvers Gap
    Thanks. Any thoughts after looking at that? Looks like a weak signal for below normal precip. Maybe it is signaling a strong +PNA pattern? Looks like it favors a split flow pattern with California and the southwest getting AN precip. @raindancewx, that would be a big bonus for you all. Will be interesting to see if La Nina eventually develops next spring.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Thought I would kick off the fall season banter thread. Definitely noticing leaves changing, especially along creeks and rivers. Seeing sycamores, maples, and honey locust beginning to change. Some of this is due to heat stress for sure, but definitely getting to be about the time that leaves begin to turn due to the days getting shorter. Last year it took forever for the leaves to drop. I suspect they are off the trees much earlier this year...that is not saying much since last year I only had about eight weeks between the end of leaf season and the beginning of mowing season.
  8. Carvers Gap
    @jaxjagman You are on your game this week, man. Another good find. Yeah, the JAMSTEC and the Euro Weeklies/Seasonal were just terrible. I hesitate to mention the CFSv2 because it puts out about four different solutions per day. A broken clock is right twice a day regarding the CFSv2. What I like about that run is that it might be closer to the ENSO set-up than the CANSIPS...oddly they both give similar surface maps. The SSTs for the JAMSTEC look more accurate globally as well. Does make me wonder if the JAMSTEC has a cold bias over NA after its solutions last winter. I also think that modeling had a really difficult time "catching up" last winter and was dealing with feedback issues. One looks at the SOI last winter, and a bust was on the table then. Thanks for the share...at least that looks more reasonable than the CANSIPS given the current Pacific basin warmth. Jax, do they release a precip anomaly map with that season package? If so, how did it look for our area.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Nice to see the 12z GEFS, GEPS, and EPS Mean are in very good agreement that the eastern ridge/western trough will reverse. Whether that verifies, no idea. Still in the d10+range, but you can see on the Euro OP the beginning of the eastern ridge exiting w the western ridge beginning to form late in the run. In other words, the operational models almost have the transition within d10. Looks like(if this is actual a real opportunity) that the cold will dive into the eastern flank of the Rockies and drive SE. Why am I happy about this? We do not want the persistent pattern of the past 10 months to linger, and I am just plain tired of summer. Plus, I think tracking those first cold fronts of fall are pretty interesting. Bring on fall!!!
  10. Carvers Gap
    See, I am wondering if the CANSIPS is in error? What do you think? Seems like it is going to have a tough time cooling off that much in the ENSO regions and its overall global ocean temps(especially the Pacific basin) again look overly cool for the second straight run. I hadn't seen that map...good share. Right now, just hoping the ensemble means from this AM are on to something with breaking the overall pattern which results in a western trough at least temporarily if not permanently. I think you used the word "crap shoot" the other day...I am pretty much in that camp for December as this warm fall is going to be tough to shake. That said, I still like a weakly positive Nada.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Going to switch over to the meteorological fall thread from here on out. Here is just a quick nugget from the September 1 CANSIPS. The CANSIPS season model, which has done fairly well during the past several years(been very warm w maybe even a bias towards warm), goes normal for September(likely a bust right off the bat), warm for October, and then slowly brings in seasonal temps(some even BN) through August of next year. I keep saying that we are way overdue for a pattern change w the current pattern being in place since almost December of last year. That pattern has been BN temps in the northern Plains w a stout area of AN temps over the SE. It is always good to note that models have a tendency to jump the gun on pattern changes. Last year, the flip switched right after a very cold November. Models last winter were notorious for trying to bring back winter, but it never did. With the QBO now in a steady decline, I think that has to be factored in now as an indicator that is changing "phase." That is a good sign I think. It is just one model and we are about a month away before I truly start taking any of these models seriously...and even then still cast a wary eye at their solutions. The biggest takeaway is progressively cooler temps over the eastern 1/3 of the country beginning in November. The Weeklies have hinted that a change might be in the works and then pull back(might just be the same reoccurring error from last winter...might not). I do think when the pattern ends, it actually might be foreshadowed by a couple of cold shots and then flip quickly. Pattern change timeframe predictions are fraught with infamous busts...so I am not calling a time, just sharing output from one model. Lastly, the Canadian may or may not be correct with its SST depiction for winter. Also of note, the Euro seasonal is warmer over the East w a similar progression as the CANSIPS but slower by roughly a month. It has a fairly warm December which skews as a SER when in reality it is a progressively cooler pattern each month. Dare I even say it after the infamous fail last winter...the backloaded winter is depicted on it. So for good vibes and because I don't trust the Euro at range right now and because I like the cooler model...I am just showing the wish cast CANSIPS.
  12. Carvers Gap
    LOL. I am not making this up and am sure it is just a coincidence. JB just posted 15 minutes ago some cooler analogs for Sept/Oct/Nov....but December was warm w a cool Jan/Feb. FTR, I posted my thoughts in the above post prior to his post. I don't see much BN or anything like that on modeling...maybe just a return to good ol' seasonal temps by the last third of September. Mainly, I think this pattern of cold in the northern Plains w AN temps over the SE(which has persisted since last December) is going to break soon. I think the respite that we saw just before Labor Day and just after was the first sign that the very persistent pattern over the SE is weakening.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Cover crop consisting of rye, winter wrye, winter peas, crimson clover, and vetch are growing like they are on steroids. Probably will turn that under in December or very early spring. Mustard greens are up. That stuff has some pop(spicy). I am also trying some Pak Choi this fall. It is purple and green. I am a big fan of William Woys Weaver who is known as someone trying to preserve heirlooms with great taste. My fall lettuce is from his collection at Baker's Heirloom seeds. Hopefully the cool weather stuff doesn't fry this week in the heat. When all of that is harvested later during the fall, I will plant those rows with winter wheat. Trying to get the soil ready for next spring as it has been fallow for twelve months.
  14. Carvers Gap
    After a hot 7-10 days, the ensemble means of the various global models do hint that a western ridge will establish. However, the devil is in the details. Some models show that ridge getting pushed well inland with an almost mid-continent ridge while others place it over the spine of the Rockies. A lot of that depends on the BN heights region in the eastern Pacific. Does they set-up over the GOA or the Aleutians? Either way, looks like some more seasonal temps may(grain of salt always implied at this range) arrive later next week around the 19th give or take a day or two. I still think this pattern, which has persisted since last December with a few breaks, is due to break. Bastardi likes the warmth carrying into December with BN temps establishing over the mid-West/Ohio Valley for Jan and Feb. My hunch is that the warm fall breaks in October, but that is just a hunch.
  15. Carvers Gap
    With no sharp gradient(Typhoon Tip) in SST temps on those maps above...I agree, all bets are off. Also, Isotherm has talked about how the warm Pacific created a really strong jet that just plowed into the Northwest this past winter. Again, evidence of deep mountain snows in western WY and western MT revealed that. This winter, tough call as not many analogs fit the Pacific basin wide warmth. The MJO also was abnormally strong last winter along with an atypical SOI. I am still leaning towards my original thinking for winter which I wrote in mid-June somewhere in the Spring/Summer thread....but still a long way to go and things can/will change. For a time last month, I thought we might actually go to a La Nina State which would have tanked my early forecast on the spot. As of now, it looks a bit more like a Nada on the weakly positive side - but a funky setup as some Pacific equatorial regions will be almost Nino and some almost Nina. As D'Aleo mentioned, need to get through hurricane and cyclone season and then see what the SSTs look like.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Hot week on tap as the Euro mean from a week ago looks like it will indeed verify. Why do I mention that, the Euro mean from 0z and the 6z GEFS do hint at some relief late in their runs with the 500 ridge establishing over the western US at least temporarily. While I don't think that means BN temps, it might meant that we see seasonal temps. Right now we have a source region problem in terms of fall air. Even last night's weeklies support that change. Again, the GEFS is overly cold and the Euro Weeklies are overly warm at 2m IMHO. However, the Euro means have been decent at 500. So, if the Euro mean is maybe getting a bit more dialed in at 500...maybe that means that ridge pops again in a couple of weeks out West. We are way past due for a pattern change.
  17. Carvers Gap
    @Stovepipe, I put my cover crop in the ground on Sunday and it was up on Tuesday morning!!! 36 hour germination rate....I have never seen anything like it. I think the warm ground temps and steady rain in combination were just about perfect. Some of the stuff(whatever is in the grass family in that mix) today is ~2" out to the ground.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Bout to close out the summer of 2019 and reach meteorological fall...looks like summer will return with a fury during mid-September as the nice, nice break from the hot temps will continue through next week when another heat ridge will likely return. Looks like my call for a nice football Saturday is going to go to crap as it will be get hot even though sandwiched between some really nice weather. Overall, not too excited about what I am seeing beginning in about 10-12 days...return to potentially very hot temperatures if the 12z EPS mean is to be believed. Even the GEFS with its incredibly cold bias shows some warm returning about that time frame. Pretty frustrating past ten days right now as both models have developed some nasty bias problems since I was looking more closely last spring. The EPS and Weeklies are biased very warm - more than usual. The new GFS is almost as ridiculously cold. Could be a very tough winter forecasting if those trends continue. And hey, the closer this hurricane gets without actually reaching the area...the hotter it will get. MBY has finally turned green again. I deplore hot fall temps... Either way, it is football time in Tennessee and around the country. Some nice games on TV for the next five days beginning tonight. Enjoy!
  19. Carvers Gap
    Some of the latest hurricane guidance brings Dorian int the eastern mountains of TN and western mountains of NC. Probably just need to keep an eye on it. Still far enough out there that any operational solution at that range(and knowing that tropical systems are notoriously fickly to track w that trajectory) has to be seen as one of many possible outcomes. Still, might bring some rains into the spine of the Apps, and that can be a crap shoot as to how bad it gets up there...think Opal.
  20. Carvers Gap
    We received a lot of rain last week at my house thankfully even to the point that flooding was beginning to be on the table. I think SE KY was just listed as abnormally dry. I tried to get the key to the map on the pic, but the pic was just too big. So, it likely looks worse than it is. I am not sure what the criteria is for abnormally dry either(maybe they are pulling ground moisture or foliage stress via satellite?). I know that July and early August dried out the ground quickly here. My yard went from a beautiful green to just brown in about three weeks. It looks much better this morning other than the grassy areas that died back to the heat and dry weather. My backyard is just fried...south facing slope that just was baked. I know we have had a lot of wind out of the east during the past month which might be a slight downslope that is drying things out even with rain. KTRI was BN for rainfall July, but received about 2" last week which may actually get us above normal ironically. Temps for both months are about two degrees AN which is pretty warm considering it is already the warmest time of the year. Looks like there was a 3-4 week period with very little rain from mid-July to mid-August. I think it even likely the airport received a tad more in July due to some pop-up storms in that area. I will see if I can find a Kingsport rain gauge near house. Other than this weekend, we have had a lot of sunny days, even when we received rain...so maybe that is the culprit. High temps, while warm, were not excessive - maybe even erroneously hyped via the media at times. However, there were a couple of weeks where the "Real Feel" was very warm.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Temps in the 40s...I will take them. GFS has had some fairly chilly runs in the East since that 12z run. Bringing stout cold fronts into the Rockies and then eastward. The EPS is similar but warmer. EPS has been trying to pop an eastern ridge late in the run, but having difficulty holding on to that solution. Main feature is a strong ridge in the western ridge reaching into the western GOA. If that ridge pops and holds, probably would get a solution similar to the GFS/GEFS where we get periodic cool/cold fronts which would be awesome given the perpetual heat that we have experienced during many early falls for the past few years.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Today has been pretty much awesome. Cool breeze out of the east w a nice morning to head out to church. Can't ask for much better in August.
  23. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS at 384...yes, please. Heck , sign me up for the entire run.
  24. Carvers Gap
    What is going to be a pain is that -NAO is likely going to go into a positive phase soon. Will be interesting to see the QBO at the end of this month. If it starts to fall at some point between now and December, that is a very good sign.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Great post, Jax. What is crazy is how wet that the year started...some places were close to near records as John noted earlier by mid-year...also as noted on Jax's map above. I mean we have a thread regarding concerns of full TVA reservoirs from spring. What is even crazier is how quickly things have dried out. MBY has thankfully received some decent rain this week. Maybe I need to talk about how dry the pattern looks more often(like washing my car). Here is the drought monitor map for the US. What is notable is drought developing around the TN river corridor in northern Alabama and some moderate to extreme drought developing in central Alabama. Would be great to get a report from someone in that area. Until the rain from the last couple of days, my yard was beginning to look about as bad as it has ever looked. I think it likely that the cooling SSTs in the easter equatorial Pacific along with seasonal temperance of the late summer precip pattern have likely "turned off the spigot." We really have been in a similar pattern since early December of last year with some periodic moderation. I "think" we are about to see a fairly significant shift in the atmospheric weather pattern over NA as evidenced by the reduction in precip in relation to SSTs over the SE. Obviously, part of that pattern change will simply be a response to the changing of seasons and the march towards winter. A quick note on the Euro Weeklies...I had noticed this and JB mentioned it today. They are absent of any cold air in the LR...like none over most of NA. They have missed the cool intrusions into the nation's mid-sections. They simply don't appear to be able to see cool air past about week 2 or 3. This is even more than their normal bias. The CFS is cold, and likely overly much. Anyway, the 500 pattern on the Weeklies does imply that a trough might develop over the EC by early October w a corresponding trough just east of HI. I wonder if the Labor Day "cool down" might actually be a precursor to the current pattern finally breaking, but not before rebounding for a period after Labor Day.
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