Carvers Gap

The 6s GFS Kuchera would probably be in the top ten of weather model runs for NE TN.

The 8-14 Day Outlook depicts broad riding over the western CONUS, and comparatively stronger troughing over the eastern CONUS. This pattern is forecast to continue into the Weeks 3-4 period, with dynamical model predictions of 500-hPa heights generally favoring western CONUS ridging and eastern CONUS troughing. Though models broadly agree on this pattern, there are differences in the strength and positioning of the ridge and trough between the models. For example, JMA places the ridge center more off the West Coast, while ECMWF depicts the ridge center over the western CONUS. Moreover, there is run-to-run inconsistency with the positioning of the ridge in models, with some runs placing the ridge center off the West Coast and others over western CONUS. Both the differences between model forecasts of 500-hPa heights and the run-to-run inconsistencies lead to uncertainty in temperatures over the north central CONUS, as the solutions with the ridge over the western CONUS would favor eastward expansion of above normal temperatures, but those with the ridge placed off the West Coast would allow cold air from the north to cover a larger portion of the Great Plains and East. In addition to these model and run-to-run inconsistencies, the dynamical model forecasts of Week 4 feature a similar but much more muted pattern, particularly for the forecasted troughing. As such, the chances for below normal temperatures over the East are also weaker in Week 4. However, as a whole for the Weeks 3-4 period, an experimental equal weighted blend of CFS, ECMWF, JMA, GEFS, and the statistical MLR tool depicts weak ridging over the western third of the CONUS and comparatively stronger troughing over the eastern half of the CONUS. Given the expected continuation of the mid-level height pattern from the 8-14 Day period, the Weeks 3-4 Temperature Outlook depicts enhanced probabilities of above normal temperatures beneath favored ridging over the West, and enhanced probabilities of below normal temperatures beneath favored troughing over the East. Despite the weakening of the mid-level height pattern from week 3 to week 4, we expect the colder temperatures to persist particularly over the Southeast, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic where probabilities are highest. Probabilities of above normal temperatures are enhanced, reaching 60 to 70 percent, over parts of the West where there was the best agreement among dynamical models. Above normal temperatures are forecast over Alaska given dynamical model agreement and trends. Equal chances (EC) of above and below normal temperatures are featured over the central CONUS given uncertainty in the mid-level height pattern noted above. Above median precipitation is forecast over Southeastern Alaska, the Northwest, and along the East Coast of the CONUS supported by dynamical model forecasts. Probabilities are higher (reaching 60 to 70 percent) over Southeastern Alaska and parts of the Northwest where there was stronger agreement among models. However, we note some decrease in probabilities close to the West Coast due to the uncertainty in positioning of the forecasted ridging. In contrast, though most model solutions leaned toward above median precipitation along the East Coast, probabilities are overall weaker, with some disagreement over the Mid-Atlantic with JMA leaning toward below median precipitation and the other models leaning toward above median precipitation. Below median precipitation is forecast for the Southwest stretching eastward to the Gulf States and into parts of the Ohio Valley, supported by dynamical model forecasts. EC is indicated where model forecasts are weak or inconsistent.

Now, folks, this is an analog package right here (CPC d8-14). 1985 triple weighted.....and two of those dates are the mother load dates. Not my words, but theirs. The analogs in bold are extremely heavy hitters. I am probably not bought into the pattern enough to go with not one, not two, not three, not four...but five elite winters. Those winters are 5 star recruits. 19810104 19850118 19851221 19610120 19850109 20001231 19951229 19770117 19850123 19601221 And 1960-61 was the Kennedy inaugural snowstorm. @Daniel Booneor @John1122 was 1960-61 a good winter for the forum area? Just asking since CPC double weighted it. https://www.alabamawx.com/?p=67947

For sure. Larry sounded upbeat about an I-81/I-95 snow event for sure. Happy New Years to you all as well!!!

This is the big concern for me....

I think the likely outcome (Euro AIFS hints at this) is an ana front like we have seen in recent years.

With very cold air potentially entering the pattern, model mayhem (think about the commercial) might be underway.

I think I what we are seeing is deterministic modeling bouncing between a PNA and an EPO. I am sure the are having trouble with the double block.

wxbell algorithms…. 18z GFS deterministic… Jan 1, 3, 7, 10…light snow, light snow, ice/rain/snow, snow Plateau gets 6-11” total Kuchera with eastern valley locals at 2-6” total 18z ensemble. Similar events and similar totals though slightly less than the 12z maxed out run

Does the 18z run looks significantly different in wxbell than it does on Tropical Tidbits? It had a huge winter storm at the end of it on wxbell? It also had a marginal winter event earlier which doesn’t look the same on TT. I am out an about and tough to tell on an iPhone.

And the Weeklies do try to put the trough into the Mountain West towards the end of January. The interesting piece is that heights don't build and hold over the SE. That implies plenty of push from cold even if the trough lands in the front range of the Mountain West.

Today's Euro Weeklies' snapshots....

Yeah, man. I was thinking about you. Those wind chills went scorched earth on my yard.

I lived in Florida at the time...lived with the Philistines for a couple of years while my dad helped build EPCOT as an accountant for the mouse. For a winter lover, it was purgatory, but free tix were nice. Anyway, did Knoxville's ice storm occur during that year or the year before? The orange groves in Orlando froze both winters I was down there - wiped them completely out. Tenn beat Bama for the first time in my lifetime while I lived down there. When I lived in Knoxville prior, my next door neighbor was a Bama fan. I still feel a missed opportunity to rub it in some.

I will use the EPS which has lighter snows, but here are some of the windows I am looking at(surely not all verify, but here it is for score keeping purposes.). Chance for upslope at higher elevations. Northern stream pulse... Could be severe or could be ice or could be rain to snow or snow to rain. Choose your own adventure book right here. Best chance.... Another best chance. WAA?

I was thinking that this also reminds me a lot of 14-15. I am sure that probably gets me into trouble with ENSO(opposite of now), but just kind of has that look.....

I will add that for people in SE TN, this pattern has the ability to deliver if we can get anything going in the STJ. I know we don't get to talk snow for that areas as much lately....but we could see snow well south of where we normally see it if the cold verifies. This is the worst of the 7d 500 ensembles for January 4-11. That way I am not cherry picking. Normally, I would cherry pick this!

Image 1: Amazing to see the EPS(ensemble!) that cold. Image 2: 7 day mean...10F below normal for January is gonna be cold if that verifies. Image 3: I have been waiting for the EPS snow mean to show this. Image 4: Again, the Canadian model often does better in our area when it gets really cold. Shave off a few degrees, but it is decent. Image 5: The GEFS has consistently been throwing out decent snow totals for this time frame. And interestingly, as John noted yesterday, the Jan 10-20 range might be the better time frame for snow. When we see ensembles looking like this, that is a good signal for wintry precip.

I was expecting a toasty day today, but I am about to freeze my tail off in this wind! And yes, super interesting storm track. As you know well, these storm tracks aren't unprecedented, and we are overdue a good stretch of winter.

LOL. Of course it would!

This is just nasty....

The 12z GEFS/GEPS don't look too dissimilar regarding this....

The 12 CMC was on the "GFS light" plan. The Euro is gonna come in bone dry......LOL. Why? We have to have all options on the table after the 12z suite.

Ice storm - check Miller A - check Slider - check Clipper - check As John noted, that is probably a maxed out run, but it was fun to look at!

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