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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Call would be first half BN and second half AN for November for the forum area...but we all know how my call for a warm second half of November turned out last year. LOL. So take that with a huge grain of salt. Though, the pattern did finally flip warm last year...just waited until early December after that big snow here. Let's see what happens when the cooler pattern sets up shop. Sometimes it takes some time to give it the boot. When the warm pattern last year locked-in, models tried to break it down in the 2-3 week window repeatedly. Let's see what happens with this cold stretch of days. I still think back-and-forth is likely with a warmer than normal December...cooler Jan and Feb. If we want a cold January, probably need to have the pattern break warm during late November and let that run into December.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Looks to me like the MJO is about ready to cycle around. November is a weird month for the MJO....transitioning from fall to winter analogs is tricky. That simply means the MJO, like many other teleconnections, does not necessarily behave the same way over NA during each season. November is almost winter, but still late fall. So, my guess would be some warmth during November depending on amplitude and time in each phase. Just glancing at the MJO, it seems to move quickly through each phase. The Euro seems behind again on the amplitude as it is still in the COD. I suspect it gains amplitude as we get closer to reality. Maybe mid-late November we pop AN for a bit...huge assumptions in that guess though, so take with a big grain. Seems to me if early November goes cool, looks like a warm December might be on the table with cold potentially coming back early to mid-January. We have been in the current pattern for about twenty days - that is going back to when the extreme heat broke. Add another 15 days to now, and that is about five weeks. I generally roll with 5-7 weeks as a very general rule for patterns before they expire. The current pattern is not a cold one, but more seasonal than anything. Early November might actually be slightly BN. Marching band competition season is over(some HS football still to go)...so I am good with anything. LOL. Got soaked Friday night here in Kingsport, did a couple of loads of laundry, and then turned/burned it up I-81 early Saturday. Saturday was a great day in Lynchburg both for the weather and the band. The rain held off, and didn't roll through until the last gear was being loaded onto the semi. Then drove through the early morning hours in a downpour back to TRI. If any of that commentary looks like total crap...it might be. LOL. I hadn't looked(until last night) at model or an index since last Thursday! Still pretty much looks the same with is good news if one like seasonal. Anyway, good to be back in a routine.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Take a look at the 15 day EPS...pretty much the Weeklies from tonight. I am not going to add much so if Jeff wants to deep dive into them he can. Just looked like a continuation of the current pattern of cold shots, ridging, cold shots, ridging..........I can live with the pattern depicted - not that I really have a choice unless I move to Fairbanks. Trust me, I have considered it. LOL. Then I looked at the price per pound for moving there.
  4. Carvers Gap
    It is shoulder season right now, and models are notorious for misses during this time of year. Last year, the Euro was all-in on a warm November and missed badly - me included. Then the Euro and its Weeklies(and seasonal runs) whiffed on the winter pattern. The JMA for last winter was truly bad. The GFS has done reasonably well in at least signaling cold outbreaks in NA where the Euro had none at all. Problem with the GFS and the Euro as well, is the are struggling with the MJO which is causing havoc in downstream forecasts, ie ridge and trough placement. I think the Euro has been a little more consistent though it did a huge flip over the weekend with the ridge/trough alignment over North America. The good thing is that if each model's bias is taken into account...they have been serviceable. For example, the Euro was a bit too wound up with the Plains system and pulled the precip field back too far. The GFS was too progressive. The Euro moved about a 1/3 of the way to the GFS and then the GFS backed up 2/3 of the way. As for upcoming ten days, likely plenty of back-and-forth temps. The past week at TRI has been slightly BN - thankfully!!!! I think the next ten days will be similar. D10-15 seem to indicate an eastern trough with AN heights building underneath. That can create forecasting headaches if true. EPS troughs in the d10-15 seems to actually verify much stronger. Conversely, ridging is much stronger. I think once we get into the second week of November, we might see temps move to tolerable AN values with cold shots building in the Rockies and surging eastward. Still looks like the same pattern that we are in, but slightly warmer - that is not set in stone! Honestly, the current October and November pattern reminds of the spring pattern with the SER present just enough which allows for precip to come into play - not talking flooding, just the pattern. Thankfully, Virginia looks rain free for Saturday!!! Last marching band competition of the season. These temps have been a welcome relief to all of the HS and college sports teams who have had to practice outside. It has been truly pleasant. Lastly, the leaves are now changing in earnest in this area. These cool nights and plentiful precip of late have really hurried things along. Not sure my garden will ever produce again at the level it has this fall regarding cool season crops. The shorter days combined with warm weather has made for nearly perfect conditions to grow some of those crops. My scallions and garlic are just coming up. They really don't like to poke through the soil until the cooler temps of fall show up. Over the next three weeks, the early season cool crops will die back and the late season cold crops of garlic and scallions will take over. Interesting fact....Scallions are multiplier onions. This means that you can put one in the ground and it will form a large clump of onions similar to planting just a single potato. Garlic will be harvested late next spring or early summer. Scallions will likely be ready during spring. I have heard that cold winters make garlic have more flavor, as if it needed it! Honestly, garlic is one of the few things in my garden that doesn't taste much different than what is purchased in the store. I grow it because, it looks cool and I also know that it has been grown in mostly organic soil. Most things from the garden taste much better than store-bought, because one can pick them while ripe thus preserving the sugars found in them. Things that taste notably better than store-bought: carrots, salad greens, tomatoes, squashes, beans, potatoes(all varieties), onions, and herbs to name a few. Best thing about garden food is that you know how they were grown.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Just when we think it is time to go back in the water...the 12z Euro operational flips much cooler. The handling of the weekend system does seem to be a lynchpin to the short range pattern that occurs after. One can definitely see that big EPO ridge. It certainly plays a key roll as Jeff spoke about in his earlier post. The EPS tamps it down a bit. Even the control has changed the configuration a tad, ie weakens it w vortices rolling into it and strengthens it at other times when compared to the previous run. Still is a big, big ridge that seems semi-constant. I really have no idea if the Euro continues by kicking out the undercutting trough, splitting the troughs rolling down the front range, or if it returns to the Southwest during subsequent runs. None of those would be a surprise and well within the norm of energy diving into the West. That tuck has been a stubborn feature of for many months/years. In a year not named 2018 or 2019, I would say it is normally an error by the Euro, but sometimes verifies as cutoff lows in the Southwest are not that rare. That said, Euro guidance did surprisingly move towards the GFS at 12z. If that trough tucks in under that EPO ridge intermittently during the next few months, going to be nearly impossible to know when it tucks and or when it is in error. Do I believe any particular model at this point? Nope. Though it would be interesting if the GFS is actually correct about the energy coming through TX over the weekend...
  6. Carvers Gap
    I think we are still OK for Friday night football in E TN as is...maybe not west. UT game is OK as is...but the rain trending more quickly eastward I don't like. LOL. Hey, I posted without looking at the 12z Euro either. I was like...maybe I better go look. I don't think the slp track is that much different which is basically eastern Oklahoma to Chicago. However, the precip on the east side is much more robust and moving more quickly eastward. The Euro still looks much different than the GFS, but not so sure it didn't blink just a tad. Besides, a rainy game Saturday might be in the Vols' best interest with our QB situation, just not great for the fans!
  7. Carvers Gap
    And sure as heck...the Euro trended eastward for the weekend system. LOL. Not quite in Virginia yet, though.....
  8. Carvers Gap
    Definitely watching the weekend system as the marching band is heading to Virginia for another big regional competition. Pretty amazing to see the GFS is handling that system totally different. Lots of rain on Saturday w the GFS where the non-GFS models take the same system into the Plains. Hoping the non-GFS suite wins this battle, even if it means dealing with a SE ridge for few more days!!! Watching the 12z suite closely.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Weather this AM is gnarly. The weather in this trailer is gnarly as well. The Star Wars theme/score in the middle of this trailer is just sick. I saw the first one in the theaters in 1977. I was super disappointed in the last Star Wars movie. This trailer gives me hope that they will get this one right. The was the last Star Wars full trailer of my time. But wow, what a trailer it is.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Just tagging onto my earlier post. I think that 6z GEFS(10.21.19) run still looks like a good compromise. Looks like the 12z GEFS and EPS have their act back together...at least for this run. Very similar runs and placement of features. Looks like both moved towards each other. About the only thing different from a few days ago(looked super quick...so don't consider this a scientific statement with loads of rigor) is a cut-off that will dive into the southwest. "Looks" like the Euro has resolved leaving the low in the Southwest versus just dumping every subsequent cold shot there. IMHO, that is just normal bias working itself out. My main concern, is that has sort of been the actual solution(cold dumping West and staying) for about ten months so I am definitely gun shy. Basically a progressive pattern with warm and cold dispersed fairly evenly. Weeklies will run off a very warm run...bet they would have looked different if derived from the 12z.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Was a Saturday of close calls. Kansas nearly edged out Texas. The Vols were a botched fourth down play from taking the Tide down to the wire. Hey, having the number one team in the country in a one score game late was a true feat for a team that lost to Georgia State, a game which I will never fully understand.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, tough to get a good analog right now. Poor gradients SST(referencing Typhoon Tip) in the Pacific, a raging IOD, Nina sig in the eastern Pac, warm northern Pac...as Jeff noted in the pattern thread, going to be a headache forecasting this winter. I believe Jeff's analog was a root canal - paraphrased a bit on my part. The problem with finding an analog is there are not enough to build confidence with. Throw in record low solar, that odd looking ENSO setup, and a falling QBO...the pool of analogs gets pretty thin. As far as western cold...I tend to think that streak has about run its course. At some point they are going to have a warm winter or two. That said, we may very well be in a cycle where the West gets cold on average for several years. The 90s had many low water years out there. When they had the record drought several years ago, they thought they were locked into that long term. Now, they are getting plenty of rain, snow and cold in the same areas that were frying in the heat. But at some point, the extreme will give way to near average or even below. Sooooo....this winter seems like a real crap shoot. Might very well be that the pattern stays fairly progressive. Seems like recent winters have just been either/or...meaning you either have a big, cold winter or a torch. Might be we get both of each this winter.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Not a ton this AM that hasn't already been discussed. Sometimes that EPO ridge can bee too much of a good thing. Looks like the Euro is correctly placing energy into the Southwest sort of underneath that big ridge. We have seen that many times during past years. Cold is forecast for the East and the model corrects by dropping it into the West underneath a big West Coast, coastal high. Fortunately, I wasn't totally bought into the cold Eastern solution quite yet. I do think it is a situation where the trough still eventually goes into the East. The GEFS has corrected towards the EPS solution this AM which is of no surprise at all. I actually like the 6z GEFS run as I suspect that might be how it evolves at 500. Energy hangs back and then kicks out...and the eastern trough reforms for a time. My money is on a big warmup next weekend into early next week. Would not surprise me to see some record highs fall, though I have not looked at them recently. I made a mental note a few weeks ago that there were some low-hanging fruit record highs in late October. This week should be pleasant with seasonal to slightly BN. The 12z runs will be interesting to see if the the GEFS and EPS continue to move towards each other. Some say the recurving typhoon over Japan is responsible for the bouncing around of the EPS over the weekend. I think it is just fall, and well within what normally happens...which means LR ensembles are notoriously fickle at this time of year. I still think the overall pattern is one where cold builds out West and then surges eastward with big fronts. Warm surges behind those fronts on return flow. Wash, rinse, repeat. Pretty classic fall pattern. In other words, fairly progressive pattern where nothing really holds yet.
  14. Carvers Gap
    TRI's wx data for the past nineteen days of October. Notably, on October 3rd TRI had a record high temp of 94. Just two weeks later, the high was 60. That impressive 34 degree change definitely challenged the wardrobe of many. Shorts and t-shirsts to hoodies and rain jackets! Five of the last six days have featured BN temps with plentiful rainfall and the first frost of the season on rooftops IMBY.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Very beneficial rains fell in NE TN yesterday which is a regions that has struggled to get rainfall before last week.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Definitely a weak trend long term to slide a SER in south Georgia and the coastal Carolinas. With that cold water off of South America, does not surprise me at all. I continue to think a back-and-forth pattern is likely with cold building in the northwest and surging SE w/ arm air surging in between cold air masses...and significant(but temporary) heat at that. Sometimes with ensembles, the average/mean shows up and the average or mean is not the actual weather. That SE ridge is going to be significant in front of incoming cold fronts, and I wonder if maybe that is why it is showing up. The GEFS nor GEPS have this, but the overall long wave pattern over NA is fairly similar among all global ensembles - GEFS would have a SER if it backed up a few hundred miles. The Euro does a good job in detecting that SE ridge early. Now, the Euro bias is also to hold cold air back in the SW. However, it has been correct about this for months on end, but sometimes it misses because of this. I think with it being shoulder season, we are just going to see an unsettled pattern. This past week is probably a great example. Lots of conflicting signals out there, and I am sure it is playing havoc with LR modeling including along with the changing wavelengths of the season. Lots of moving parts.
  17. Carvers Gap
    I actually like wx twitter...just have to filter out the blah. I literally only follow like twenty people total on Twitter. For me, pics use up a ton of my AmWx storage, so just easier to use a Tweet. Point is the with Tweet above, though we are about to enter a normal to BN pattern...tough to extrapolate that too far out as the 6wave pattern is likely not sustainable - need to have a more stable wave pattern. That will likely break down fairly quickly. For those saying there will be a quick return to warmth, that pattern probably supports that - meaning it will break down. That 6wave pattern is fairly progressive and won’t allow heat to build over one area for long. But once it breaks down heat will possibly build under either a western or eastern ridge.
  18. Carvers Gap
    I saw one of these stations last spring and again over the summer during trips out there. Pretty cool article on cloud seeding in the Salt River Range with the intent to produce more snow that will in turn produce better water years for energy and agricultural purposes. BTW, this guy runs a great blog. I think he used to work in Oklahoma at the storm center. http://blog.starvalleyweather.com/2019/10/14/cloud-seeding-in-star-valley-and-western-wyoming-an-update-2019/
  19. Carvers Gap
    I thought it was windy today...when I opted to stay under the bridge, I might have understated the winds. Winds were clocked in the 30mph range today in areas of E TN. If you have ever watched the weather roll in over the ridge lines at higher elevations...that is what it looked like. Grabbed this graphic from MRX's FB page...
  20. Carvers Gap
    I am with you Jed...when I looked out and saw it raining this morning, felt like I was watching it snow(it had become such a rarity). Anyway, looks like wind chills this evening in southwest VA are ranging form the low to upper 30s. Wind chills at TRI are in the low to mid 40s there. Wind is really howling. This is my kind of weather. Friday morning has a mention of patchy frost by MRX for Kingsport as lows dip into the mid 30s. Will be interesting if later this month TRI can approach a record low as many are in the mid 20s. The GFS has been toying with this for several runs - but it has a notable cold bias so we will see. Wouldn't be surprised to even set a record high early next week. Looks like some wild temp swings coming up. That is fall to me...some nice days and some gnarly weather days. I had to stop jogging today and chill out under a bridge as sheets of light rain and drizzle came up the river on about 15 mph winds. Looked like the kind of thing you would normally see at higher elevations. Anyway, I didn't really chicken out by trying to stay drive. I was done walking my route and was waiting for my ride. Just surreal to be roasting a couple of weeks ago and then to be witnessing a scene like that. Wild, but why I like the weather and find it interesting. My neighbor saw me heading out in shorts and a T-shirt and noted that it was probably time to switch to warmer clothes...I was thinking he was likely right as I was standing under that bridge.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Pretty good illustration of the hemispheric pattern where the wavelengths are really shortened up likely due to the season change. Finally have the term I was looking for earlier in the thread - wave. So, wave3 and wave4 patterns are fairly stable IMHO with w4 patterns being very common during winter(correct me if I am wrong on that). The wave6 pattern below is probably not sustainable for very long. What becomes the stable pattern once this(if it even verifies) reverses back to a wave4 or wave3 pattern is debatable. Pattern could revert back to the most recent warm pattern or form something new. IMHO, sort of like spinning the wheel on the old Price is Right. The wheel is gonna eventually stop...but can we win a new car is the question? Also note this is waaaay out there and may not verify...but this also might explain why the GFS is so cold - cause it might be wrong. LOL. Anyway, I thought it was a interesting look even if it didn't verify.
  22. Carvers Gap
    So.....haven't seen rain for months. The band is heading into Western NC over the weekend. A low comes out of the GOM along the SE coast throwing copious amounts of precip back int W NC. I think we get the event in, but gonna be a tight fit. Hoping that system doesn't get there until late Saturday night - Euro needs to be right!
  23. Carvers Gap
    For the eastern two grand divisions, looks like the lion's share of precip fell north of I-40. NW TN, NE AR, SE MO, and the western half of KY did very well along with areas just north of Nashville. Also appears that anywhere 0.80-1.00" of rain in the Kingsport area this morning. For once, an over producer IMBY!!! I thought RadarScope looked too low. So, I scanned some wxunderground stations and many showed one inch totals near MBY which seemed too high. AHPS seems to give some credence to those higher totals, though maybe not quite that high. Still, a good rain event for some with a maybe some more still to fall. https://water.weather.gov/precip/
  24. Carvers Gap
    A big snowstorm in NE TN in late October is the kiss of death here. Cold Novembers, as John has documented, generally favor cold winters. Last winter was an exception to that rule. As Jeff noted as well, probably want to see some strong cold fronts then - the winter will remember what happens in November. However, I really don't like seeing snowstorms in October - though I don't really have a choice in the matter so I just enjoy it anyway. LOL. I definitely think there is always a danger that sometimes cold source areas get emptied of cold and then it takes them some time to rebuild. Though, I am sure there is a line of thinking that cold sources can replenish quickly.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Lastly...what a welcome sight!
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