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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Looking at the temps for next Friday...temps on modeling are struggling to reach 40. Game temps for HS football games could possibly be in the 30s...low 30s along the the TN/KY borders. Real feel temps will likely be colder. The Euro like the GFS has bitterly cold temps in the 7-10 day range...The Euro actually has some -50 degree departures at 240. Fortunately, that is way out there and will change. The 12z GFS provides a means to deliver that well in the SE. The Euro seems like it wants to park those temps along the northern tier. Still, impressive cold now showing up pretty consistently for the 6-10 time frame. Looks like two shots. Going to need to keep an eye on that shot coming in after next weekend. It may whiff...or it may be very cold. That 10d airmass would likely break records wherever it sets up shop. Very winter like 12z suite. Still surreal to be talking about that...my yard is still fried from the heat. My garden is fried from the cold last night. LOL.
  2. Carvers Gap
    When a big 1055 high rolls into the front range in MT...you know the rest of the run is going to be stellar. 12zGFS...whoa.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Looks like WCYB on their FB page has a couple of photographs of the tornado that went through the far southwest corner of Virginia. Fortunately, that is a very rural area. What a wild weather day it was yesterday. Looks like Roan Mt and Leconte both picked up light accumulations of snow. Just glancing at the webcam, looks like Sugar might have been blowing snow last night...but I could be wrong.
  4. Carvers Gap
    39 degrees in west Kingsport with wind chills in the lower 30s at best. Truly awesome cold front today - a true howler. Those never get old. Is that a 30 degree temperature swing since later morning? Rain got out of here in time for trick or treating. We built a fire in our portable fire pit in the front yard and roasted marshmallows. LOL. I keep saying it...it is absolutely amazing to look at the range of weather for the month of October. Set the all time record high for like four straight times to begin the month. We had been 33 days with only 0.1" of rain. Today we had severe storms, ~1.25" of rain IMBY, and the event ended as snow for some. Mid 90s on the first day and wind chills in the upper 20s to low 30s and snow to end it. Certainly was not boring, though I don't ever want to see 90s in October again. This is one for the archives.
  5. Carvers Gap
    LOL. That is hilarious.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Growing up I had never heard of a downslope wind in this area. Great find. We have our own chinook... Folks that wonder what we talk about during winter storm downsloping events can get a good idea what we deal with from that map. Sometimes I wonder what we called the "warm nose" was actually just a downslope event. Now, obviously the warm nose is its own thing...but sometimes I think it is made worse by a downslope event.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Just a bunch of wind and rain IMBY. The first day of October and the last day of October are about as polar opposite as one can get in regards to October. LOL. This entire day is October in a micro. Started warm. Gonna end cold.
  8. Carvers Gap
    We have some posters in that area...hopefully they will post a report.
  9. Carvers Gap
    We began October by setting all-time record highs and were dealing with a developing drought. We end it with severe/heavy rain and snow behind that. Gotta love the Tennessee Valley forum region. LOL!!!!!
  10. Carvers Gap
    @Blue Ridge has some great satellite photos in the severe thread of the downslope. Looks like things were really rolling in Knox Co now. Severe line now headed for NE TN.
  11. Carvers Gap
    I am going to make a side trip out there to the Sinks. Just too good to pass that up.
  12. Carvers Gap
    LOL. Pisgah ninja'd me!!! To tag onto his post... Cool little piece of information that JB mentioned this AM. The Peter Sinks in Utah may(still be verified) have hit -46F. That would break the all-time record low for the lower 48 for October I think. Anyway, I did some research. It is a bowl at high elevation(thinking above 9K'). You can literally walk into the inversion and the temp drops 30-40 degrees when the inversion occurs. I had heard of these types of phenomena in Antartica. Basically an indentation in the geography of a very cold area can be significantly colder than its surroundings. I think in Antartica there are little cave like features that have crazy cold temps as the cold just drains into them. I wonder if Heber is near this area? https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/10/30/arctic-cold-blast-breaks-temperatures-october-utah-wyoming-colorado/4098089002/ edit: Here is the article about the phenomena in Antartica. I had no idea (but it makes sense) that it happened at the latitude of Utah. Makes me think of places like Camp Creek which get such strong winds...real life outliers that just have perfect conditions for extremes. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5888749/The-coldest-place-Earth-chillier-scientists-thought.html
  13. Carvers Gap
    I wouldn't be surprised to see some light accumulations above 5,000' in the NE TN mountains and NW mountains of NC.
  14. Carvers Gap
    I think a fairly good case could be made for multiple scenarios this winter. A lot of seasonal forecasting is a crap shoot as there is just too much chaos that can't be accounted for at this time from an atmospheric perspective. But there are some really good seasonal forecasters out there...Many times those seasonal forecasts have good information even during years when their forecasts don't verify. Usually the best ones pretty much spell out their ideas plainly in either a general or a meticulous format. Some of those mets work in private or government industry and can't release their detailed forecast. So, just have to read between the lines. As for why folks are going warm...bet the streak. The pattern which has led to a cold inter-mountain northwest has been tough to beat as has the SER. Until that pattern runs its course...tough to bet against it. I think probably the warmth in the NE Pacific has some influence on the warm winter outlooks. I think the ongoing NA pattern does. I think the rather wonky looking El Nino(cooler in the East) is factoring into those. I think the uncertainty with the QBO is fueling some of that along with the recent overall tendency for winters to be AN in the East. As hobbiests, we have the freedom to kick around different ideas with little or no accountability, because our jobs don't depend on it. If I was going on TV with a winter storm forecast, I doubt I would be as forthcoming with multiple models ideas as I am here. Folks get mad when forecasts bust. So many veteran mets are super careful with their words which is not a bad idea in any profession. Anyway, the new Cansips comes out tomorrow and the Euro seasonal should roll within a week. Those should be interesting, but I am especially interested in the Cansips as it has been pretty good during the past few winters.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Forgot about that. LOL. Yeah, that is really pretty wild. If that cold verifies, it would be almost a carbon copy in terms of September, October and early November for much of the forum area. I mean '54 has to run out of steam at some point, right?
  16. Carvers Gap
    Both the 18z GFS and 12z Euro are dropping big highs out of Canada late in their runs, into the front range of the Rockies, and then southeastward. Some of those highs are 1045s. That is significant early cold if that verifies. I normally don't talk about stuff that far out...but the 500 pattern would support a major cold outbreak for the eastern 2/3s of the country for the first half of November(edit...it did say February...LOL). There were places in Wyoming that smashed record lows this AM - not the same air mass as I am discussing...just illustrates the impressive early season cold. Both models bring a system out fo the GOM that ride the Arctic front's boundary as either a northern Miller A or a Miller B. I know it is out there in terms of time...but man, those are some big highs. If those keep showing up, they will be the antithesis of what happened to begin October and a heckuva a lot more fun to talk about. LOL.
  17. Carvers Gap
    12z operational Euro is not warm. Wow. May be a break from the cold(and we would want it after that run) by mid November according to the EPS. Who knows...d10+ has been sketchy on the EPS.
  18. Carvers Gap
    The point and click grid forecasts for the NWS, now show rain changing to snow on Thursday night for the highest elevations of the eastern mountains.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Nah, I was just joking around. We actually have decent accuracy in the forum from several folks. My “hobby specialities” are the 2-4 week time frame...and NE TN snowstorms. I enjoy the pattern recognition stuff. I got into this hobby though just wanting to know snow accumulations for my backyard. However, last November was not a good one for me. I do think we want November to have some cold shots and be BN, even if slightly. John has some very good data correlating cold Novembers to cold winters. Didn’t work last winter, but still is a generally good indicator. As for knowing what will take place, I think there is some skill involved and some good fortune. But hey, we make our own luck often times. What makes this interesting is not knowing what will happen...basically making sense of what looks like chaos. The ENSO pattern right now does tell us some important information as do some other indices such as the QBO, MJO cycle, solar, and IOD. Biggest thing is seeing where the storm track(s) sets up during November and what the 500 pattern is. We are now at the time of year where the atmosphere might give us some clues. There are some rumbles of the NAO turning strongly positive. That might be a long term problem if it flips right now. Things like that.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Just a warm, beautiful day outside. Rain eases in tomorrow evening with big temp swings predicted Thursday into Friday. And then...it feels like late fall finally. I am still trained to think it is gonna be 90F every day. Next week is gonna hurt....less sunlight in the evening and much cooler temps. High temps during the first week of November will be nearly 40 degrees cooler than they were to begin October! Honestly, this has been a fairly fun change to monitor. Seeing frost on rooftops with grass in the yard that has been fried by heat is a little surreal.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Me predicting warmth in November is the signal for the Euro/EPS to flip cold on the very next run...I am fairly sure of that.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Some very strong cold fronts depicted on the 12z Euro.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, no doubt!!! November was BN after that record stretch of temps in '54. If I remember correctly from the analog creator, the following winter was pretty average in terms of temps. Temps then might have been a little AN for that decade's norms, but BN by today's norms. At some point, that analog won't work for us anymore, but it has been a bit uncanny just how accurate it has been, even down to the return of warmth this week...and then the door slams shut on the warmth. October of '54 double dipped into record warmth twice during that month during non-consecutive weeks. I doubt we have seen the last of the SER...again, that cold pool off of SA argues for it. That said, a little bit of SER can help if the storm track is over our area. It would keep the cold from going straight to New Orleans like it has during past winters. I am just ready to fire up the wood stove!
  24. Carvers Gap
    Awesome, man! You are gonna like that upslope stuff during winter....and probably gonna hate that downslope stuff as well. LOL. Seriously, great to have you posting over here.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Just crazy how well that 1954 analog has held up...
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