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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Agree with watching the Thursday system. Also, the Euro Weeklies and the EPS look to hold the current pattern in place. TIFWIW, we know the Weeklies have been flipping around a lot. Last winter we all thought would be cold, especially the back half. After early December...went straight warm. So, I kind of think the atmosphere owes us one. LOL. The weather outside has been nasty this evening. Kind of reminds of the first Harry Potter movie when he is on the island, and Hagrid finds him on that dark and rainy night. Also, been putting out fires for the past couple of days. Great to see all of the discussion from everyone. You know when we put the Tennessee Valley forum together several years ago...that is kind of how we thought it might look. I know I post quite a bit...but my favorite days looking at the forum are when I see all of this great material to read - and I haven't posted at all. Means we are alive and well. I hope my legacy with this forum is not that I posted a bunch. I hope it is that WE built a great place to discuss weather that will carry on in some shape or form for many years. And ultimately, I hope we produce a few meteorologists because of the great discussion by all of us. The SE forum has produced a few.
  2. Carvers Gap
    And looking a little more closely at the 12z Euro, it has the wave on Tuesday in SE GA. It just lacked precip. So, just guessing the phase missed or was a weak phase. Honestly, that setup with no changes probably has more precip over the TN valley. So, really at seven days out....that is still fairly astounding agreement among many models for surface feature placements over just one small area of the globe.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Looks like the 12z Euro held back its energy in the southern stream and buried it over west TX. Sometimes it is right with that, sometimes not. The northern stream energy did pop a coastal. The CMC had the wave continue out of SW Louisiana and continue up through the Piedmont. Pieces are there...timing on that run was not. GFS was too progressive. Euro held energy back. Both are biases. I would think there is a decent signal for an EC storm...may not help us here, but maybe for folks from West Virginia to inland NE. But who knows...that set up could yield an inland runner or just be sheered out with nothing. Interesting to see for sure.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Watching the 12z Euro roll right now...the 12z UKMET had a monster high rolling in from Canada with a sip over the TX Panhandle around the Tuesday/Weds timeframe of next week. Then the run ended. So, that is three models with some potential, but need one of the major global models on board(GFS or Euro). Still is interesting for sure. Big, cold highs our of Canada have been an ingredient in many big EC coastal storms. Just kicking things around, but interesting.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Typhoon Halong is probably factoring into East coast weather next week. BIG storm. As mentioned in the MA forum, that is the type of system that resets what would otherwise be a good pattern. Could be both a blessing(short term) and a curse type deal(long term w/ pattern reset and doing more damage than needed to the PV this earl).
  6. Carvers Gap
    LOL. Ya'll need to me to talk more about New England confluence and sliders being the main potential. The CMC has a Miller A @174.
  7. Carvers Gap
    @John1122, I think the possibilities of you getting a cold November are increasing quite a bit. I have my fingers crossed. Last November flipping on modeling has me a bit gun shy. However, looks like temps through mid-month will be well BN. Maybe some decent signs that the second half will be seasonal to BN. One could make an argument that my warm December idea is even in jeopardy. The eastern trough is looking fairly steady right now. Hopefully, that holds as we settle into early winter in a few weeks....changing wavelengths do make me nervous as the current ones are a bit short. That said, the ensembles do have more of a stable wave pattern for the northern hemisphere which look a bit more winter like in nature(meaning longer wavelengths)...I may be getting ahead of myself on that, though.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I think the western and middle Pacific are pretty much going to be AN SSTs for DJF. I figured the eastern regions might warm a bit. Kind of a weird set-up and why an analog package may get beat-up pretty good this winter as many(including you an I) have noted. Hey, the SOI is tanking...not sure what that is going to unleash.
  9. Carvers Gap
    I would guess that maybe the GFS and other LR modeling are possibly missing some small scale features embedded in the northern stream next week. Tuesday and Wednesday next week are super cold on the 12z GFS. I wouldn't rule out some northern stream feature slipping into the picture at the last minute. That is normally a late Dec/January flaw in modeling, but this airmass being modeled is January level cold(not severe by January norms...but severe by November standards). That type of cold is about a month and a half early. Modeling has had some frozen precip during that time frame from time to time on various runs. At this point, climatology very much frowns on valley systems that feature measurable frozen precip other than passing flurries or snow showers. However, with the GOM being slightly more active and cold roaring through....doesn't hurt to watch things. Probably the best option would be snow coming in along the Arctic front. Low probability at this point, but chances are not zero either. I will say this...anytime that much cold air gets into the forum area, has to be watched for shenanigans. Some type of upslope event would likely not be out of the question either as lake effect snow is probably going to be a part of these big, cold highs. edit: What I am looking for is of the slider variety as true confluence is probably in New England so that makes a coastal less probably.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Looks like 1/2 El Nino and 1/2 La Nina....looks much cooler than I thought it would look. What are the trends on that, Jax?
  11. Carvers Gap
    My first semester at UT. Pretty much froze. Second semester, I think the opened the outdoor pool in like January. LOL. Just seems like right now that the trough really wants to go into the East. Really pulling for that November -> winter correlation to work out. Great start here for a cold month to be realized.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Through the first three days of November, TRI is -10.2F below normal.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, it backs of just a bit with the Tuesday cold shot and that particular trough is shallower...and then it delivers a second and third shot during the next couple of days that are equally impressive. The wind chills on Wednesday AM in the higher elevations are in the teens below zero. The trend was slightly warmer(I mean are lower 30s for highs really that much warmer!?) for Tuesday and trended colder over most of the eastern 2/3 of NA for the following days. The end of that run is cold...that would be cold even in January. I hope it verifies. Still about seven days out...but an impressive cold signal on the GFS and Euro for the 12z suite. Death ridge for early fall, deep freeze for late fall...and then watch us go zonal all winter just to keep it even. LOL
  14. Carvers Gap
    We'll see if this verifies...but Tuesday and Wednesday(next week) don't get above freezing at TRI on the 12z GFS. Pretty sure there are some record lows in jeopardy if that is correct. Long way to go, but another impressive run. Let's see if the Euro backs it up. FYI, I always forget that everything runs an hour earlier when we "fall back." edit: Looks like the GFS puts a bit of snow on the ground which skews that just a tad...but still looks like Tuesday would have trouble making it to freezing unless it was at midnight. Super cold air mass that is 20-30 degrees below normals for max temps.
  15. Carvers Gap
    The 12z Euro control run is good for some kicks and giggles. It gotta hold of what the GFS was drinkin' last night.
  16. Carvers Gap
    This is about the time frame that big high keeps making an appearance. That is a potent high. What happens after this frame is the boundary pushes over the forum area and it snows. I wanted to put this out there so the set--up is there to compare to for future runs. Jax has some great output above relating to temps in middle TN. That(central MT) is a great location for a strong high pressure. During recent winters, notably December of 2018, those highs signaled very cold weather downstream. D'Aleo referenced this year yesterday. I thought it was a good reference, but held his comment in reserve until something besides the GFS depict that. Hopefully, we see that high as a semi-permanent feature on future runs. And hey, I wouldn't discount some more high elevation snow for this Friday w even some flurries in the valleys. Feels like crazy talk after those record warm temps...but that is what makes following weather enjoyable.
  17. Carvers Gap
    ...and really want to emphasize, if the cold is as intense as modeled in the d8-10 range...modeling is going to struggle some. Those big, cold highs are like a wrecking ball. So, it will be really important over the nest 3-4 days to get a handle on just how strong those highs are going to be. Again, if they are 1045+ then it is likely modeling is underestimating how far south that cold pushes. We saw this look a few weeks back. The models correctly anticipated severe cold. However, the first few runs sent it into the East. However, it went West and busted all kinds of records out there last week. With the SER impeded right now, the cold has a better chance of making it SE. But again, need to really look at how strong those highs are and need to see if a mechanism gets it SE with either a storm and/or buckle of the jet.
  18. Carvers Gap
    ...and the 12z EPS has dumped the eastern ridge idea for days 10-15 during its last two runs. It has reverted to an eastern trough. We will see if it holds. Seasonal changes and those big, cold highs on operational are likely playing havoc with mid-long range modeling. So, looks like we have a chance to make it to mid-month with BN temps. The GEFS and GEPS have been fairly steady with maintaining an eastern trough. Definitely interested in the cold shot(after the Friday cold shot). It will be interesting to see if modeling continues to show those big 1045-1050+ highs. If those highs enter into central MT, the current weather pattern will likely bring them SE. The question is...how far? IF those highs are that big...then it is likely that modeling is actually underdone on how far SE the cold makes it. Interesting times ahead. Lots of great discussion already this afternoon regarding the potential consequences if those big highs push this far south. Eerily similar to last November, even with a different SST configuration. Right now, I am just enjoying the cooler temps. This is my kind of weather.
  19. Carvers Gap
    No doubt. Yeah, I have been half-joking about that analog only because it closely mirrors record highs here at TRI. That said, the cool water that developed off of SA during early summer might have caused that analog to work for a short time. It is a bit crazy how closely it has mirrored September and October. All right, ya'll...going to get into this UAB game a bit more. Have to support my orange. Keep the fires lit while I am glued to this pivotal game - sarcasm intended.
  20. Carvers Gap
    And I still use them....but I just trust them less. I mean it's not like if haven't mentioned 1954 like 100 times in this thread! LOL.
  21. Carvers Gap
    I will add, Tellico, someone asked me if this was going to be a severe winter. Nothing would surprise me. Plenty of conflicting signals. My ideas are in the summer thread, but truly these are "anything goes" type atmospheric conditions. LOL.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Had heavy frost on the garden this AM...I thought my garden fall crops would be fried(which I mentioned in another thread). This afternoon, they looked great! Hardy little rascals.
  23. Carvers Gap
    I think the lack of temp gradient(Typhoon Tip...) around common ENSO conditions is causing problems. That said, the warm fall teleconnected well with cooler waters off of SA(now warming I think) and the -NAO. The MJO also correlated well to the heat and the ending of the heat. I personally think most of the teleconnections still work most of the time with some obvious exceptions. The active IOD and abnormally active MJO pretty much made many old analogs moot last winter. So, I think some still work and some don't. @Mr Bobused to always point to each year being its own analog. I think that is true... What is making things difficult from a model watching standpoint is how badly the EPS has been from d10-15. It barely sees any cold w its surface temp depictions. Its 500 maps have been OK. The GFS/GEFS have been ok but I never fully trust those. LOL.
  24. Carvers Gap
    LOL. Yeah, go check out those low temps that accompany that. There is another cold shot after next weekend on the GFS that delivers those accums...question is does the cold get into the SE after next weekend? EPS and Euro are kind of dodgy regarding that time frame with the EPS breaking in continuity from its 0z run and a ridge over the East for d10-15(this has been going on for a couple of weeks). GFS just goes all-in. Will be interesting to watch if that cold does come SE.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Definitely agree with the mid-month potential for a warm-up in our forum area. Mentioned that earlier in the week(this past week) before the ensembles went stone cold. LOL. The EPS does show some signs of a ridge late in the run in a fairly significant break from continuity. It has been wrong about those so far, and its d10-15 runs have not verified well in terms of missing cold. But with what is shown on the operationals...nowhere to go but up as the Euro deterministic is almost BN for the length of its run at TRI. The 12z Euro has extreme BN temps over portions of the Plains and southern Canada(bitterly cold) late in its run. Average high at TRI is 63ish for early November. No idea if that run verifies...but that is a chilly run.
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