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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    LOL. The Weeklies depict almost exactly what John mentioned in terms of temps. No idea what its snow mean for that time frame was. 1954 lives on... 1954 began almost as a joke, because here at TRI we couldn't break those max temp records during September, but crushing all other years. For September, 1954 holds eight record highs. 2019 holds eight record highs. For October, 1954 holds four records highs. 2019 holds for record highs. And what is uncanny is that some of the warm spells came within a week of each other on the calendar. Then November turned cold during both months with snow reported in measurable amounts. The current cooler water off of SA may be acting as a bit of a weak Nina signal and that may be allowing for some mirroring of the two years. Still just sort of weird at this point. Not sure the two years are a great match in terms of SSTs...but their Septembers, Octobers, Novembers, and maybe even Decembers(???) are super similar. All of that said, sometimes things that appear to have good correlations...have no relationship whatsoever. There are actually some pretty hilarious (and false) connections that statistics bring together at times. In this case, maybe the Nina ENSO in the eastern Pacific is something to think about. Also, it seems like the weather patterns recently have been similar to the early and mid 50s analogs. So, there might be something to that. Anyway, it is now just kind of fun to see just how far we can take an "iffy" analog.
  2. Carvers Gap
    I agree. We don't want what the Euro Weeklies were cooking up though...but they have been awful in the 4-6 week range(for the past year or so...they used to have some skill before last winter). What the GEFS is showing took several weeks to dislodge in September, and only seasonal wave lengths really disrupted it. That said....it is the GEFS and it does not have support yet. It also makes sense to have some sort of moderation after the well BN temps that we have been having. And true, many great winters never really got going until January. Last year has spooked me as well along with isotherm's forecast. LOL.
  3. Carvers Gap
    That is not a pretty picture on the 12z or 18z GEFS in the d10-15 - Well above normal temps being portrayed with an eastern ridge connecting to a -NAO. When have we seen that before? September. Thankfully, the 12z EPS is not on board with that business. On a positive note, there is evidence on the EPS that a -NAO is trying to develop. If true, just throw modeling out the window right now. High latitude blocking wrecks LR models at times...just too many plates to juggle. I was feeling pretty good about December until I saw the GEFS. The Euro Weeklies(I don't even look at surface temps on it anymore because they are always warm after week 2) have a decent 500 pattern through mid-December before their predictable global torch for weeks 4-6. Weeks 2-4 looks overall seasonable with not a ton of amplification. I have recently had a slight lean towards a BN first half of December...but the GEFS has me spooked. Maybe it shouldn't, but it has been ahead of the EPS on pattern changes lately. The GEFS is a bit of an outlier...but it has led the way for about six weeks. So, it can't be discounted just yet. The GEFS is a total flip of the pattern beginning at day 10. Definitely some things in the LR that still have to be worked out and have repercussions regarding the first month of winter.
  4. Carvers Gap
    That'll help quite a bit. We used to live off Sunset just near State of Franklin several years ago while my wife was finishing up med school. We used to rack the heck up on northwest flow events over there. Lived right on top of a hill. Plus, if you just need to see snow...you can always drive to Boone and see it while they are blowing snow. LOL. JC is a great location. I miss seeing the mountains over there every day.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Pretty much the Holy Grail of high pressures for November. That is strong even during winter. The 0z Euro had a high at 9h that was 1052. The 12z that just ran has 6z at 1049. Both of those forecast readings are on the east end of Yellowstone National Park near the Beartooths. The 12z Euro does appear to slightly back off its totals over E TN. Looks like more of 1-2" of snow for E TN vs 2-4".
  6. Carvers Gap
    12z suite looks pretty good so far for E TN...especially the foothills, Plateau, SW VA, and portions of NE TN. That said, many of the models(global and short range) have upped their totals slightly. Never want the trend to be going down at this range. Not sure what is causing the system to max out over E TN, but several models depict a pretty decent precip max over the eastern valley with this. The questions is whether the cold is going to move as quickly as modeled. The big 1050+ high argues for that. However, as I stated above...the Plateau can do strange things with systems like this. It may give some good orographic lift or it may hold up the cold. Either way, still an interesting early season system on tap. I would not be surprised if some valley locations received and inch or two of snow. Seems weird to state that as climatology really frowns upon snow this early...but it can happen and that high is no joke.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Good to see you on here again. These Arctic fronts as they interact with the Plateau add a certain degree of difficulty. Often, the cold takes it time draining in from the Plateau...but sometimes it does not. The big high out West has me with one eye over my shoulder. Either way, tracking in early November is all bonus!
  8. Carvers Gap
    TRI's record low on the 13th is 19F. Right now the forecast low is around 16F. So, a chance to break the record low on Wednesday morning.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Thanks for compiling those. Just an impressively cold start to November. Unless something crazy happens, even with moderation later in the month (not a given) looks like November will likely finish BN or even well BN. @Blue Ridge, with snow predicted on Tuesday...1954 rides again!!!! Just amazing how close this fall has been to '54. I joke about it, but it is becoming a bit uncanny.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Love it...Even if it doesn't work out, a winter thread in November is always a bonus! Hey, if we can get a winter thread in April early next spring...that would give us six months of tracking! My expectations are low on this one. I just want to see some snow showers. Any accumulation is a total bonus this early, but I do like looking at snow accumulation maps though! I may have to put in The Day After Tomorrow to get me fired up!!! I like that movie, not going to lie. My other favorite weather movies are Twister, 2012(more geology), and pretty much any Christmas movie with snow in it. Christmas Vacation and Home Alone are pretty much awesome. Yeah, I am a weather geek and I just can't help it. In for later! Good luck to everyone on getting some early season snow. Have to think folks about 2,000' are sitting pretty good on this one.
  11. Carvers Gap
    TRI is a whopping -7F below normal for the first nine days of November. November's start is nearly a polar(like that?LOL) opposite of October's. I mean I still leave the house without a coat, because I still assume it is gonna be 90+ during the day. Pretty sure this is the earliest that I have not had to mow...but just mow it now to knock down the tops of a few fast growing patches of grass and to pick up leaves. The heat pretty much wiped out my yard...then the cold went off the top rope and ended its meager hopes of returning to form.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Great read, griteater. Enjoyed it. Thank you for taking the time to write that up.
  13. Carvers Gap
    12z RGEM is a good thump and still snowing. So is the GFS and the NAM is not bad either at 12z.
  14. Carvers Gap
    That a 4" snow mean over NE TN on the EPS for the early week event?
  15. Carvers Gap
    Weather modeling has backed off significantly to a non-event for the Thursday system. Probably not a great sign! That said, weather models are notorious for losing events around the seven day range (for a few model suites). Time will tell. At seven days, I didn't have much invested...plus it is early November. Pretty cool to see alway. Looks like LR modeling is coming into better agreement. Both the 0z GEFS and EPS show some moderation in temps by late next weekend. Then 500 heights fall again under that ridge, and the trough develops. Right now, just looks the trough is doing to set up shop in the East. I hope that continues into December or at least that pattern shows up during winter at some point. The current pattern(if found in mid-January) would have been money. Eight days into the month, TRI is -6.4 which is an impressive departure considering that October was +5.4 and September was a whopping +7.3. The ball game last night had temps which were at or below freezing for most of the second half. I am going to have to dig deep in order to find one where I felt that cold for most of a HS game in early November. Deep into the playoffs...they can be bitterly cold. Plus, I don't think many have acclimated to the colder pattern at this point. My family still heads out the door without coats on...only to have to hustle back inside in order to grab a jacket.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Maybe someone can gif that run, but when you hear me talk about a perfect track...that is it. Only problem, 5-7 days out...but that storm just crawls from Thursday to Sunday. Snowing in Memphis on Thursday and does not exit NE TN until Sunday morning. Marginal cold air to work with, but I will take the northwest quadrant of a strengthening slp ten out of ten times. Euro still has room to come West or it could be to wound-up. Fun run. edit: NE TN still gets more after this pic.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Maybe someone can gif that run, but when you hear me talk about a perfect track...that is it. Only problem, 5-7 days out...but that storm just crawls from Thursday to Saturday. Snowing in Memphis on Thursday and does not exit NE TN until Sunday morning. Marginal cold air to work with, but I will take the northwest quadrant of a strengthens slp ten out of ten times. Euro still has room to come West or it could be to wound-up. Fun run.
  18. Carvers Gap
    That run is pretty much near perfection. Nearly a foot in middle TN at 192.
  19. Carvers Gap
    At 180, northern middle and the Plateau are getting scraped.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, that is an interesting run for sure. Memphis gets ~3". Storm takes so long to get its act together that much of it falls as rain in E TN...but not all of it is rain. Downsloping and scouring of temps occurs due to it crawling along the Gulf Coast. Perfect track for E TN if we can get any cold of cold to hold OR if it gets stronger. Much more wrapped up this run than last.
  21. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro @150...
  22. Carvers Gap
    Is the weenie reaction emoji new(button you click to like a post)? Maybe I have just missed it. That should be fun. LOL.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Agree that colors pretty much changed in unison...a true testament to the duration and strength of the warm anomalies and then accompanied by a quick switch to seasonal and then below. I don't think it was much cooler at elevation. That said, our leaf change up here was super quick for maples, locusts, sweet gum, sycamore. The oaks are basically are way behind. So, it is almost like a two tier change here, and it sort of has been lately anyway. The rain and wind knocked the leaves down from the trees that had just changed...and left the oaks in tact. Also agree that fall actually turned out to be quite nice at lower elevations from a color standpoint. The wet spring helped, and I do think the recent rains helped. And rainy days IMHO are great days to photograph the leaf change. The colors are just richer. Today is beautiful. Temps are chilly. The wind chimes are singing. Going to be super cold tonight - compared to what we have been used to. I think our band is changing-up its routine as playing when it is below freezing is super tough on the instruments...especially the competition stuff. These HS band don't have the budgets of those northern marching bands who can make sure that they have good, cold weather instruments ...and instruments for the rains. A good example, is that one needs a plastic clarinet for the rain and wood for concert. The brass(while being played and warm air is in the instruments) also sweats similarly to a Coke bottle that has just come out of the fridge. . It has been a great marching season. Lots of great stories. The national championships are this weekend in Indianapolis. Our kids are heading to the Rose Bowl parade instead, and will not make the trip to Indy(too expensive to do both trips). Was a tough decision since DB won't be able to defend its 3A national title(its first) from last season. However, what a great opportunity to go to Pasadena, and be in that parade. We are really blessed to have so many kids who play in our full band - 388. Just under 20% of the kids in the high school play in the band. Crazy! Plus, DB is in the playoffs this year after a rough couple of seasons. Glad to see them bounce back. They are such an easy team to pull for. In smaller towns in NE TN(and really most areas in the state) high school football is a great community event that brings everyone together. In smaller towns, we don't have changing school zones...so some of these kids are walking on playing fields as fourth and fifth generation athletes or band members.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Thursdays system next week is still interesting. 6z GFS and 12z Euro have it. Something to watch. The energy that was held back Tuesday is getting picked up as a GOM slp.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Some BIG difference between the GEFS and EPS/GEPS in the long range. GEFS quickly erodes the cold pattern by next Saturday. It has really moved up its flip to a more zonal/weak eastern ridge pattern. The EPS is stone cold through the end of its run with not even a hint of what the GEFS is cooking. Something to watch. I don't really trust either model right now. The GEFS is well...the GEFS. However, the EPS has been awful at seeing cold in the LR(which it sort of has now with the 500 pattern), but it is also has had issues with seeing pattern changes only to flip at the last moment. Something to watch in the LR. The GEFS has been showing this off/on for a couple of days. Pretty impressive differences showing up at d7. The EPS rolls a ridge through and the GEFS sticks the trough in the Southwest. Been a weird weak, so each model taking on the other's bias would fit right in. The EPS rebuilds the eastern trough and the GEFS builds in a wonky by not impossible pattern. Might be the GEFS is just ahead of things which it does sometimes.
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