Carvers Gap
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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
Carvers Gap replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
GFS(12z and 18z) and CMC(12z) are both hinting at a fairly strong upslope event beginning late Thanksgiving Weekend. 12z Euro is not too far off from that...looks a bit too wound up. Strong NW flow coming in nearly perpendicular to the mountains. -
The Tennessee subform rocking impressive metaphors this week. Pretty sure I will be laughing about Jeff's quote (about adventure books and the GFS) for a long time. And I will also be using the phrase in that tweet again - 99 cent bin superstorm.
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That is pretty craptastic, but glad you are back! Hopefully this week will be smoother. I had a similar week about two weeks ago.
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Man, missed you during the latter half of this week. Been too quiet on the forum. Hate to hear that about the deer. That is scary stuff. There are loads in my neighborhood. Around hunting season in my area, they frequent road areas and back yards. And yeah, it would be hard not just to put it in the ditch if one smashed into the car...good job on her part to keep it in the road.
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Awesome. LOL. That run looked like it was running for office...promised something to every region of the country, and no way it is going to deliver. 12z GEFS looked steady though.
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Just put in an order for gopher wood to Amazon.
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Man...if the Weeklies had run from the 0z run....
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Don't sweat the small stuff. Temp anomalies on the Euro Weeklies have had a severe warm bias for many months. The bias begins after week 2. They must have monkeyed with the algorithm. The 500 pattern doesn't look to bad to me until mid-late December which is after d28. The Weeklies have been pretty awful past week 3. Also, the Euro run from this morning was pretty awful. The Weeklies are only as good as the run they are derived from.All of that said...I do have a warm December as part of my ideas, so I probably can't complains. I don't think a warm December is a slam dunk though. The GEFS has done a much better job of recognizing cold patterns. It has flipped back cold for the past two runs. The EPS also has erroneously tried to warm the current pattern several times. I don't trust the GEFS, but the EPS has been equally bad if not worse. It seems like some sort of BN heights are going to establish for a short amount of time in the Southwest(a few days...maybe even a week or two). That said, the Euro also has a bias of not being able to get energy out of the SW - like ever. It just sits there. Need to keep an eye on the Greenland Block. If it forms...it won't go as quickly as forecasted IMHO. That said, HM has been banging the drum the Aleutian low is going to be a driver here. I think that has potential to be the most important driver early during winter. Keep in mind that the Weeklies completely missed the November cold pattern...almost a total whiff. The EPS has been playing catch-up for about four weeks. The only danger is that the GEFS is always cold....makes it tough to find the pattern change to warm if it occurs. My money for now is on the GEFS, though I never really discount the Euro - but it has really struggled to see much cold at all in NA.
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John, I am always thankful for your records. 2014 missed my back yard. I had to go check the obs thread. LOL. Fortunately I posted there. Missed on Sandy as well. Good find on the 93 obs. That turned out to be a cold winter as you have noted. That is the winter that I always forget was cold. I have been asking folks in this area if they remember getting an inch or more is snow this early...it has been a long time - I think. I was was living at Papermill in Knoxville in ‘93...so I have no idea if Kingsport cashed in. Seems like lately we have been getting more than the airport...For many years, Kingsport was always much lower than the surrounding county, partly due to the river I am sure and partly due to industry. These days we seem to be on par. Now, SW VA where @1234snow lives and @Daniel Boone and @BlunderStorm...that is a money pot up there. Carter’s Valley northward is just gold. I spent the winter of 85 in Carter’s Valley. Twenty something below zero and snow on the ground for months. I can remember sitting in Saturday snowday make-up school watching it snow!!!
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Is the weenie reaction emoji new(button you click to like a post)? Maybe I have just missed it. That should be fun. LOL.
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Yeah, I think the western and middle Pacific are pretty much going to be AN SSTs for DJF. I figured the eastern regions might warm a bit. Kind of a weird set-up and why an analog package may get beat-up pretty good this winter as many(including you an I) have noted. Hey, the SOI is tanking...not sure what that is going to unleash.
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Looks like 1/2 El Nino and 1/2 La Nina....looks much cooler than I thought it would look. What are the trends on that, Jax?
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Had heavy frost on the garden this AM...I thought my garden fall crops would be fried(which I mentioned in another thread). This afternoon, they looked great! Hardy little rascals.
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LOL. That is hilarious.
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We have some posters in that area...hopefully they will post a report.
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I am going to make a side trip out there to the Sinks. Just too good to pass that up.
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LOL. Pisgah ninja'd me!!! To tag onto his post... Cool little piece of information that JB mentioned this AM. The Peter Sinks in Utah may(still be verified) have hit -46F. That would break the all-time record low for the lower 48 for October I think. Anyway, I did some research. It is a bowl at high elevation(thinking above 9K'). You can literally walk into the inversion and the temp drops 30-40 degrees when the inversion occurs. I had heard of these types of phenomena in Antartica. Basically an indentation in the geography of a very cold area can be significantly colder than its surroundings. I think in Antartica there are little cave like features that have crazy cold temps as the cold just drains into them. I wonder if Heber is near this area? https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/10/30/arctic-cold-blast-breaks-temperatures-october-utah-wyoming-colorado/4098089002/ edit: Here is the article about the phenomena in Antartica. I had no idea (but it makes sense) that it happened at the latitude of Utah. Makes me think of places like Camp Creek which get such strong winds...real life outliers that just have perfect conditions for extremes. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5888749/The-coldest-place-Earth-chillier-scientists-thought.html
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Weather this AM is gnarly. The weather in this trailer is gnarly as well. The Star Wars theme/score in the middle of this trailer is just sick. I saw the first one in the theaters in 1977. I was super disappointed in the last Star Wars movie. This trailer gives me hope that they will get this one right. The was the last Star Wars full trailer of my time. But wow, what a trailer it is.
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Was a Saturday of close calls. Kansas nearly edged out Texas. The Vols were a botched fourth down play from taking the Tide down to the wire. Hey, having the number one team in the country in a one score game late was a true feat for a team that lost to Georgia State, a game which I will never fully understand.
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Yeah, tough to get a good analog right now. Poor gradients SST(referencing Typhoon Tip) in the Pacific, a raging IOD, Nina sig in the eastern Pac, warm northern Pac...as Jeff noted in the pattern thread, going to be a headache forecasting this winter. I believe Jeff's analog was a root canal - paraphrased a bit on my part. The problem with finding an analog is there are not enough to build confidence with. Throw in record low solar, that odd looking ENSO setup, and a falling QBO...the pool of analogs gets pretty thin. As far as western cold...I tend to think that streak has about run its course. At some point they are going to have a warm winter or two. That said, we may very well be in a cycle where the West gets cold on average for several years. The 90s had many low water years out there. When they had the record drought several years ago, they thought they were locked into that long term. Now, they are getting plenty of rain, snow and cold in the same areas that were frying in the heat. But at some point, the extreme will give way to near average or even below. Sooooo....this winter seems like a real crap shoot. Might very well be that the pattern stays fairly progressive. Seems like recent winters have just been either/or...meaning you either have a big, cold winter or a torch. Might be we get both of each this winter.
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I saw one of these stations last spring and again over the summer during trips out there. Pretty cool article on cloud seeding in the Salt River Range with the intent to produce more snow that will in turn produce better water years for energy and agricultural purposes. BTW, this guy runs a great blog. I think he used to work in Oklahoma at the storm center. http://blog.starvalleyweather.com/2019/10/14/cloud-seeding-in-star-valley-and-western-wyoming-an-update-2019/
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So.....haven't seen rain for months. The band is heading into Western NC over the weekend. A low comes out of the GOM along the SE coast throwing copious amounts of precip back int W NC. I think we get the event in, but gonna be a tight fit. Hoping that system doesn't get there until late Saturday night - Euro needs to be right!
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And the happy hour run of the 18z GFS did not disappoint. LOL. Brrrrrr. Low 40s into the Florida Panhandle.
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That cold next to South America has SER written all over it. Worst case could be a torch...best case an inland storm track.
