Carvers Gap

And at this range, ensembles are the way to go....lots of good options at this range. Really for the time frames that we are looking at, the deterministic model output is really just one member of the ensemble. Probably gonna be just some outright crazy runs for the next few days.

Can you imagine the thread title options for that event? ...The EPS gets the snow mean into portions of Central Florida.

I was about to say...when you get a robust EPS snow mean like that(and that far south), pretty good signal even if I hadn't seen any other modeling today. And if it falls in the Jan 7-20 window, it likely isn't going anywhere.

One last post, the Euro may still get it done actually. So far, it is colder than the GFS run.

Last post for a bit, the cutter at 204....when it is strong, the cold rushes in, and the run is insanely cold. When it is slightly weaker(CMC), the setup for a major winter storm over the Upper South is present.

At 219, the GEFS has the snowstorm.

Not to be outdone by the EURO AIFS...

Nothing will top the Key West snow map by Holston, but this is mind boggling for a run. Real feels....below zero wind chills into the Panhandle. Low single digits in the land of the mouse.

18F at Lake O and 23F in Miami for that run. 43 in Key West would be just two degrees off of their all time record low which was set in 1886 and also in 1981. (I had no idea that all time record lows were set when I lived in Florida. All I knew is all of the orange groves in Central Florida were hit really hard.). Crazy cold GFS run.

LOL. When it is snowing 90 miles north of Cuba, that is an exceptionally cold run. I might give up a little bit of snow if I can say that in my lifetime it snowed in Key West.

It is kind of weird, but we may need the in-between warm-ups to maybe have a shot at snow. These successive cold fronts are powerful and mean business at 12z.

Give me that 12z CMC setup all day, every day (during January). The 12z GFS is flirting with the 6z Euro AIFS.

I kid you not, the 12z GFS is cold enough to snow in Florida if it can get some precip in there.

The 12z GFS out to almost 300 is just frigid. The 12z CMC looks like it is about to go where the 6z GFS did(run will end before it gets there, but it likely would have gotten there in terms of winter storm potential).

Again, we look at that 6z GFS, but the 0z Euro was nuts. Look at this 500 sigma.

None of that is a certainty yet, but the likelihood of severe cold is increasing. The level of severity is very much a topic for debate. About every third run, we see a moderating trend when compared to previous runs. Ice is 100% what I don't want to see. The way this trough is aligned, we are on the bottom/left side of the "U" in the trough so to speak - meaning warm air advection will likely attack that area. I would rather "warm-up-and-rain" than "warm-up-a-little-and-ice." After Helene, I can pretty much say having power out for extended amounts of time is not fun, and I didn't have it even remotely as bad as many(they lost it for weeks/months...ours was just days). Our power went out during those cold shots that you mentioned...I don't know if they were rolling blackouts or the grid just couldn't handle the demand - I never really knew the cause.

Just tossing the snow maps as an outlier(and they may not be an outlier...but just at this longer range, I will), take a look at those temp maps. Those look like 3 hour increments. I assume the include afternoon temps. Take a look at how long the 2mtemps(surface basically) stay below freezing at both locations. Look at the lows at TRI. The 6z Euro AIFS just posted similar numbers. For me right now, the cold is the big story. Precip will come into focus as we get closer. Just and insane run all the way around. I suspect we see some warm-ups in front of these strong cold fronts FWIW, but if that were to verify...that is pretty rough.

The 6z AIFS is probably my main concern. That is just bitterly cold. The 500 sigma map is equally impressive. 40+ degrees below normal during the second coldest week of the year.

Gives you the day for January...08. Then it gives the hour....21? 08/21....Looks like a full 16 day run listed.

I should add....see John's post about the 0z Euro. I think the best potential is between d8-20, and that has been the case for weeks. Deterministic models are just now "seeing" that timeframe. So, model watching might be fun for a few days. Until we get that potential fully inside of d10(can't get all 12 days obviously), it will be tough to know details. However, I do like seeing northern stream energy embedded in a cold pattern. That is usually a good sign for MBY, NE TN, SW VA, SE KY, and even down to Chattanooga if the northwest flow starts flying. Really, the entire region has a chance with severe cold. Cold and dry is always an option and maybe the default likely option....but that isn't always the outcome in our forum area. In order, I would put these as our best, realistic chances after looking at modeling for a few days.... 1. Northwest flow clippers of the 1-2" snow variety 2. Ana front - 4-8" of high ratio snow followed by bitterly cold air 3. Slider - general 3-4" of snow over most of the forum area . . . . . 4. Overrunning even - big hitter 5. Miller A / Inland Runner....we need the cold front to be sharp and tap the GOM. The exit point for systems that climb appears OTS for now. So, we need to depend on the northern stream or general confluence until the trough retrogrades enough for the Atlantic to be in play.

I don't want to cause false hope. Honestly, that is a realistic map IF that cold verifies. It is one possibility of many. 20" of snow in NE TN is not as uncommon as official records would have us to believe. 20" in the mountains over 16 days would be normal or even below normal at this time of year. Really the thing to watch is IF those bigger runs continue. They won't be every run, but just watch and see if the show up about 1/3 of the time. The CPC is using monster winter analogs. Even one of those analogs would get my attention, but they are using upwards of 70% of their analogs from the very best winters of the past. If you were playing Madden football, those would the the Hall of Fame all-star teams. I am not exactly sure why they are using those years. There are plenty of other years besides 77, 85, and 96. So, I question that a little bit. That said, it isn't just a wx model showing that potential. CPC is ringing the bell as well. But yes, we live in the Upper South. All options (good and bad) are on the table at this point. Pretty severe cold does look likely - that seems to be a constant. But all are wise to make sure to get these within a few days before setting higher expectations. My general rule for big snow is modeling doesn't see them IMBY until the last minute. If modeling is increasing totals within the last 48 hours, and increases until the even starts....the model is in catch up mode. That said, some of the great winter patterns of the last 35 years were seen 10+ days out. It is a weird deal, but modeling sometimes catches bigger events at range. We'll just have to see if we see any repeated of that.......for now, ensembles rule the roost.

The 6z Euro AIFS puts the forum area north of I-40 below zero. I need to check to see if snow is under that. No snow maps from it, but just have to look at each system and guess. I will post back in a second on this post - so hit refresh.

As crazy as those numbers look, we managed that during 14-15 IMBY. Ratios get crazy high during cold weather. I would think the mountains have an increasingly good shot at good snow. Valleys are always a crap shoot, but get decent cold in place and that is when we have a chance at good things. Ensemble snow amounts are generally what I look at for this range. The 0z Euro and 6z GFS all show various ways to score with cold air in place. The 0z Euro was a really good run BTW as John noted.

Here is the 6z GFS Kuchera. Overrunning event, couple of preceding/minor NW flow events, major NW flow event post big storm. This is the second maxed out run of the last four. Just to keep some measure of reality after looking at this, ensembles are 5-8" of snow over NE TN. It has been my experience that when we see decent ensembles over NE TN, that is usually a decent sign for other places as well.

I would think that might be it. I generally just use a web browser. Anyone from tapatalk care to answer?