Carvers Gap

The fly in the ointment with this storm is the high near Bermuda is not getting out of the way. It is creating return flow over the SE.

My only concern with the GFS is how quickly it is moving its snow axis westward. During the last four runs, it has moved from eastern W VA to Lexington, KY, at that latitude. Would be nice to see it settle on a track. Let's see where the CMC goes.

Just digging through modeling this morning. Here is the 6z Euro Control. @Holston_River_Rambler, I don't think the operational goes out to 144 and neither the ensemble nor deterministic have precip types at 6z, right? Either way, this is a good look eastern section of middle TN and mirrors the 6z GFS.

I think anytime we have a strong fold front on modeling (during the next couple of weeks), going to have to be watched.

As for the 6z GFS, going to need other modeling come east as the GFS is on the eastern side of the envelope (and trended westward at 6z) for the NYE storm. Still a long way to go on that one. We were fortunate to track the Christmas Eve deal from almost ten days - that is a rarity. The pattern does support 1-2 storms taking the low road during that time frame. The storm immediately after the NYE storm is kind of what I am watching.

The CFSv2 seasonal(which bounces around and changes quite a bit as it runs once per day) illustrates the concern for January, and also illustrates how a -NAO can create a ridge in the East. I think we will see an undetermined period of the look below - might be just a few days, a week, or weeks. Just tough to tell. We are now entering that time frame that is one where I have low confidence as modeling is juggling several plates(see my posts yesterday). The GEFS OLR maps today do depict convection in the IO(Inidan Ocean) region in the phases 3-4 regions and maybe some weaker convection in the phases 1-2 regions as well. We don't want that showing up long term as one only needs to look to last winter to see the consequences of that. The run below kind of shows what modeling is dealing with. The 0z EPS now has a similar look to what is below. The variability is possibly due to the MJO becoming possibly becoming more of a factor on some modeling and even during various model runs...and less on others. What all of this means is that the Atlantic(-NAO) is going to have to be the driver in the LR if we want more cold and snow after the New Year and little help from the Pacific is on the Horizon....and the Atlantic, if too strong, can actually become a thorn as well. Finally, let's see where the EPS goes(the 6z GEFS implies the ridge). I don't like losing it in the LR. Just one run of the EPS which looks bad, so let's see where it goes. Indeed, the 6z GFS has a similar set-up to the Christmas Eve event. The Euro is basically a cutter for that event. CMC is in between the Euro and GFS. Canadian modeling has been pretty good this winter. The window from NYE to maybe around Jan 4th has some potential for the subform. After that time frame...toss-up.

I like this map from the CFSv2 for January. It looks a lot like the Weeklies Canadian which came out last night. I think there will be times when a trough rolls through and after that a ridge rolls through and maybe connects to the -NAO. That, in turn, will create some nice weather at time’s. However, one thing which seems like a constant is this look. Sometimes it has the small ridge out west and sometimes it doesn't. This pattern looks remarkably similar to the set-up which just produced this current storm. Going to see some cutters with that look. Likely will see some coastals if it verifies. This is the kind of pattern that has an outside chance of opening the Arctic, letting cold slide south, and then trapping it under that ridge. That happens at times. Right now, afternoon ensembles have a +PNA, -NAO,- and -AO. Get some normal temps into the SE for January, and we might have some more chances. You can pretty much see the storm track on that map. Verbatim, that wold give our folks in the western sub-forum some chances as well. Those tracks would have some cutters, sliders, and coastals. Needs some cold in that pattern for things to be really good, but that map is workable...not exceptional but workable.

18z GFS with "Cold Catching Rain Sequel" on NYE. LOL. That would make like three times that has happened in a month. Old timers around here used to tell me when I was little that often the best snows came immediately after heavy rain during the winter. This has been an "old school" month for weather: -NAO, cold catching the rain, and an early start to winter.

What would be gold would be to have the TPV split, head south, and get locked under that block right there.

That is how it should look. That is better than good. As a friend noted, a ridge may roll through from time to time...but that is how a block should look. Not sure I have a seen a block that intense last for that long. Yesterday's system of cold catching rain was old school. That look right there is old school. I think modeling is feeling that unfavorable MJO, but the very favorable -NAO is balancing this Sith/Jedi pattern in the LR - where there is one, there is another. Well, something like that...

And just like that the GEFS and GEPS are back to a workable look at 12z.

LR thoughts...posted them in the Dec thread but will link them here in the new thread. Changes in global ensembles (2 posts)....

I have seen snow roll in out West one time which was similar to this - on June 14th!!! Got 5-6" of snow at 6,000'. Was an incredible day of fishing to boot. Motion is sped up a bit, but the wall of snow is what is impressive.

Great time lapse!

Great start and then coasted home....but glad to have Tennessee basketball back.

John has it posted in the main thread. Great track. ICON had something similar.

I think we are 37 as well. With that light breeze, still chilly. I have to go running later...just trying to wait for it to warm-up a hair.

Temp is 34 in Kingsport with a slight breeze. WC is probably below 32. Pretty raw day.

Spitting some salt and pepper size flakes here. Had some flurries and very light snow showers for about an hour or so. You can see the banding of those on the RadarScope image below.

That's pretty hilarious. I see that we have a few who speak our local wx microclimate dialect.

Inside joke for the rest of the TRI Kingsport crew. If you know what we are talking about, discuss let's not...we all need our relatives still working. LOL...downsloping is just one of the problems we have to overcome.

LOL. You know we are going to be last in Kingsport and you know why!

The first day of meteorological winter IMBY. Had a dusting on the ground. Wind chills were in the teens for much of the day. The mountains had near blizzard conditions. Ski slopes have to be loving this. No idea if it lasts, but what a great day for winter lovers across the eastern half of the state. That is how you start winter right there.

They are gone on top of Bays for sure. One on my street is still pale green...as in my front yard. The try and I are at odds. LOL. I hope the wind tonight strips that sucker bare.

Just did my leaves last night. 25mph winds on tap later today and tonight....crap.