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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    DB...you had some good thoughts in the main ENSO thread. I have considered the full latitude trough option for the U.S.....It was good to hear someone else say it. The ridge in the eastern Pac and the -NAO would argue for that pattern I think. Again, really good thoughts.
  2. Carvers Gap
    @nrgjeff, time to jump into the fray. What ya got?
  3. Carvers Gap
    Some nice trends on modeling overnight...Both the 0z EPS and 12z GEFS seemed to take steps in the right direction, mainly both found the -NAO that had been a prominent feature until the past few runs. Let's see if they hold at 12z. Again, have to think this SSW(minor or major...no idea) is causing issues understandably.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Lastly, the potential SSW is going to be fun to follow while we hit this pattern that doesn’t support snow. Usually we don’t have anything follow at this time of year.
  5. Carvers Gap
    I don’t think things are exactly like last year, but there are some strong similarities. Things that aren’t the same are the QBO trajectory, the SOI is in sync now(remember last year it was a Niña phase during a Nino), and it’s not last year. But there are definite similarities. In truth, just no idea where this goes after the SSW. I could make a pretty good case that the strat warm likely caused the eastern winter to be warm last year when the cold dumped west. Does lightning strike twice in the same cold spot? Probably not. My hope is that we pull an 09-10 rabbit out of the hat.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Don’t disagree. Like I said, if this SSW is legit...nothing is realiable until it works itself out. Now, Weeklies can give us hints...but it’s warm bias makes it unreliable right now. In this case, absent and SSW, it does make sense to have a warm December given climatology. However, if we have a cold December...you can thank me for the reverse mojo. LOL.
  7. Carvers Gap
    I'll say it. This pattern looks remarkably similar to 1954...and last year. November cold...talk of an SSW...warm December now in the works. The only difference right now is the Euro Weeklies are not showing a cold winter - pretty much a torch after week 3, but when have they not? Weeklies do not show a cold pattern and pretty much dump the cold in the northern Rockies. Looks like(once we reach late November) that the pattern will indeed revert to the base pattern from the last twelve months for at least a little while and maybe longer. The storm track and cold air placement are remarkably similar as well. I say bring on the SSW...We are going to need something to shake-up the pattern. Lastly, with the potential for an SSW...pretty much all bets are off. That is especially good if one believes the Euro Weeklies which I am not sure that I do. Glad we got some early season snow and cold...going to be a while before we see much more IMHO. Thinking late December or even January before we get into a better cycle. Pretty stark change in modeling over the past 48 hours. Again, the one possible good thing is the strat warming event. That is going to wreck any LR model run until it gets that right.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Was a ton of discussion about this yesterday. The 12z GFS today shows significant warming at high latitudes and in the stratosphere of that area. Not saying an SSW is imminent, but the foundation is being laid at least for a pretty significant disruption. Waaay out there, but look what the 12z GFS is doing. These are the 10mb temp anomalies. I normally would never post at this range, but the GFS/GEFS combo nailed the strat split(from 16 days out!) during the spring of 2018 and did pretty well last winter with this type of event. The Euro is showing signs warming late in its run. Also Typhoon Tip in the NE forum commented that this is a pretty sudden change in modeling and needs to be paid attention to...I concur. Here is a screenshot....fairly exciting stuff.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Preliminary thoughts on December. AN(maybe one torch week in weeks 2-3) weeks 1-3...transition of seasonal or cold by week 4. SSW and -NAO(how long does it last) are big wild cards.
  10. Carvers Gap
    12z GEFS continues to portray the western trough establishing itself early next week. Not sure I buy that yet....but it is growing more consistent with this feature. Pretty steady evolution of a flip of its original output over the past 5-6 model runs. IMHO, I think the current cold pattern has just about run its course. Only way we can dodge a big warm-up is if the NAO can go negative and mute what is an MJO that is trending into a tour of the warm phases(maybe at a decent amplitude at that). The other wild card is the SSW. This very well maybe a run-up pattern to that as described in my post yesterday. If that occurs, later December/early January would likely have some strong cold anomalies somewhere over NA...good luck guessing where! Not great signs for December at this point, especially with the GEFS moving the pattern flip to within seven days.
  11. Carvers Gap
    The 0z Euro continues to show fairly strong warming at 10mb at high latitudes. Have to think that is playing some part in the flip-flopping of modeling. It has in the past. Also means the PV is really gonna get bumped around.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Some definite trends(all though not super consistent at this point...about 2/3 of the time) in placing the trough out West on most global modeling ensembles at 0z. Those trends on modeling began last week. I don't think they are set in stone yet, but frequency of AN heights(in the East) on modeling in the LR is increasing. On the 0z GEFS the Aleutian low begins to disappear though the block over Greenland is there. I do hold out hope for a full latitude trough over NA. But honestly, looks like models are trying to decide if the trough stays in the West...or rolls eastward. Seems like the lean is West. Tough to find many Decembers that are cool with this SST set-up. So, if it does get cold in December and stay cold...pulling a bit of a needle out of a haystack.
  13. Carvers Gap
    18z GEFS has returned to form. Pretty chilly run.
  14. Carvers Gap
    @jaxjagman, can you see the day 8-10 10mb/30mb/50mb temps on your site? Those layers look pretty warm to me. What do you think?
  15. Carvers Gap
    Good graph there... would be interesting to see where it is in a couple of weeks. The 12z Euro and GFS have some pretty strong warming between days 8-10 at 10mb, 30mb, and 50mb. If the Euro/GFS combo is right, PV is going to take a decent beating - no idea if it results in a PV split. Also, with the MJO flirting with phases 3-5, that does correlate to a pretty good jostling of the PV at all levels of the atmosphere. Going to be fairly interesting. I prefer for the PV to be weak...those SSWs are not always money. That said, looks like some things are being set into motion which will rough it up pretty good.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Good find. I hadn't read anything in detail, but I saw that it was mentioned. If you get a time, let me know. Hopefully, they will leave the video up. Even better, maybe she will give us some current SSW snippets.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Pretty impressive cold to begin November at TRI. We are -7.2F through November 16th. Not a single day AN so far. That will change, but still impressive.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Amy Butler is my go to for SSW events(thanks to Jax for sharing about her expertise a while back). She had this to say last Thursday. Pretty interesting to see that big ridge along the EC at 500 sending a bunch of warm air northward in conjunction with potential polar vortex disturbance at the higher levels of the atmosphere. Probably going to be some tropospheric disturbance at the least.
  19. Carvers Gap
    So I went back and looked at the run-up to last year's PV split which occurred in early January I think. I also looked at the time around the Feb 2018 split. Here is the 500mb map from December 28, 2018. This occurred right before the SSW last winter and is referenced in the referenced post above. It is not in that post. I have had to clear my memory cache since then. But here is the actual reanalysis of that date.... Here is the 500mb pattern about a week after the SSW which occurred in mid-Feb of 2018.... Here is the GEFS at 258.... Here is the 12z EPS at 258 I wanted to show above that sometimes these big ridges that hook into Greenland block at 500mb seem to show up just before or just after a significant disruption of the stratospheric polar vortex higher-up in the atmosphere. Their duration is relatively short in natured(edit). I have been saving this in the back of my mind. We in the forum have kicked this around some, I think Jeff included. The big ridge along the EC has occurred just before or just after the last two strat splits. It tends to feed a ton of warm air at lower-mid levels of the atmosphere into the higher latitudes. Also, not sure I am a huge fan of the SSW. It doesn't always equate to cold here. This is just wx talk and not really so much about if it is going to get cold here...though the EPS would indicate as such. So, let's see if the PV doesn't get bumped around pretty good here in 10-20 days. (BTW...the 12z EPS is still a textbook -NAO evolution into an eastern trough. The EPS dumps that trough into the East and flattens it a bit into a nice, stormy pattern typical of a Greenland block.)
  20. Carvers Gap
    And here is last year's discussion...I will see if I can go find the pic in my files. When the SER or WAR hooks into a forming Greenland block..the PV (at the tropospheric and stratospheric level) has been split just after or during this event. So, let's see if this actually happens again. If it does, it would make three times this pattern of a mega-ridge(WAR/Greenland Block) presented itself and three times an SSW was occurring or about to occur.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Knew I had filed that away for a reason...plenty of discussion about the SER hooking up with the Greenland block around the time of an SSW in mid February of 2018.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Seeing some consternation on other sub-forums about the ridge around d10 that rolls through on the GEFS. That is definitely a break in continuity. Given the amount of change in the higher latitudes, not unsurprising. We have seen this pop up on run in the past on several runs - I was complaining about this look last week as a matter of fact. And this is my observation....this 500 setup has proceeded strat splits in the past. Yeah, it is not the stratosphere...but when the WAR hooks into a Greenland block better look out. All kinds of craziness bout to get unlocked if that holds into place for very long. That is a crap ton of heat getting unleashed into a block. Like winding up a top and then letting it loose. Maybe we should call that a Tasmanian Devil Ridge(TDR), cause what happens next is going to be significant (in terms of cold) and nearly random in terms of where it goes. I am going to go back and see if I can find a post on that WAR/Greenland Block ridge.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Still some pretty textbook NAO looks on both the GEFS and EPS. Ridge rolls through the East quickly and the trough deepens behind it. The block may actually mute warm MJO phases and also mute what would have been a very warm pattern as our source regions for cold are pretty much on empty - cold is in Asia. Hopefully the block lasts long enough for the MJO to rotate into colder phases. I think if this happens, colder air finds its way over the pole and into the East. Interesting LR pattern for sure. The GFS has some solutions yesterday where it appeared systems were beginning to feel the block and were partially suppressed. edit: There are systems in the 6z GFS already being forced south. edit: 0z Euro as well.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Look at the pattern at hour 72 of the 18z GEFS. Now, compare it to the pattern above in the first slide. What appeared to be a problem in modeling is just the first step in the -NAO process.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Fascinating look at the NAO. I encourage to find and read all three tweets about the evolution of a -NAO(500 and surface) and its antecedent pattern. Good stuff. Here is my favorite. Look at the patterns(be sure to read the labels and to click each pic...some have more photos than the Twitter thumbnail) and think about what the ensembles have been trying to work out for the end of the month. Looks very similar to many runs.
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