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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    No doubt. Descended here this afternoon. Has really reduced visibility. Pretty awesome.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Been a great summer so far. Looks like roughly normal through July if any of the Weeklies can be believed - no death ridge yet. My fingers are crossed that the atmosphere will have a Nino hangover just long enough to get us through early and mid fall. Then, the Nina comes with early cold before warming to AN for part of winter. A person can hope, right!? Sitting at exactly normal for June with a 0.0 departure.
  3. Carvers Gap
    So often we see weeks of winter disappear with warm spells. We call that "losing a weeks of winter or torches." Well, I feel like the last few weeks have been stealing some great weather from the warmest time of the year. Of course that won't last anymore than winters rarely stay warm. The Euro Weeklies are all of the way into August now. The Seasonals go to December. Every weeks that we steal from summer gets us one week closer to tracking those first fall cold fronts. I suspect we will still have some hot weeks and maybe even extended summer due to La Nina. What would be nice is to see the El Nino pattern have just enough pattern memory to get us through fall, and then let Nov/Dec turn cold which is often typical during La Nina years. Anyway, another great morning with temps. With temps pushing into the low 60s during the next few mornings(50s at 2500'...and 40s way up), can't complain. This has been a great patterns. There are some hints that the ridge builds east and holds...I don't know. Seems like that ridge really wants to be out West. It can stay there as much as it wants in my book.
  4. Carvers Gap
    The Weeklies, FWIW, show a similar pattern continuing for the next six weeks. Ridge builds eastward only to get knocked down by fronts/lows coming across North America. For whatever reason, modeling really likes the ridge in the Mountain West. Let's just hope this is not a repeat of last summer where we got a break during July....and then the mega furnace kicked in for weeks on end. So far, this summer has been about as nice as one could ask for minus one really hot stretch.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Looks like another cool-off(BN temps) is showing up on modeling after this weekend's warm-up. Then maybe the ridge holds for a bit to begin July. Still, by mid July looks like the ridge wants to shift back into the front range of the Rockies. For now, looks like temps will average out normal for June. Given that we are approaching La Nina conditions, any month near normal is a steal. Interestingly, the high yesterday at TRI was 66. I saw some folks walking around in jackets. Definitely drying-out quickly west of I-81 in the TRI region. We have managed to dodge rain in multiple ways during the past week IMBY.
  6. Carvers Gap
    I think I will put out some winter wx ideas during the next couple of weeks. I would expect a prolonged summer followed by a short fall season. The transformation to La Nina is moving along pretty quickly. Things are drying out somewhat here. But hey, it really couldn't have been much soggier. I think December goes against recent trends and goes seasonal which would fit Nina wx patterns. Jan should be warm. Feb should be warm, but might be less warm than Jan. I do think we will see one or two extremely cold shots of cold air during the winter. For whatever reason, a part of me feels like this winter is going to buck climatology - I am really going to have to fight the urge to go with that instinct and just roll with science. Science says this winter should be warm with some bouts of extreme but short bouts of cold - meaning islands of cold in a sea of warmth. My gut is less sure of that. At some point our winters will turn colder. Seems like the winters out West during the past decade have been snowy no matter what the wx pattern. During the late 80s and 90s, that was the opposite in many cases. Makes me wonder if that trends shifts eastward at some point. Anyway, the AMO is likely many years from being helpful. The QBO, interestingly, has stalled in the single digits around -5. That could mean that it is not going to stay negative for long OR it could mean that the QBO cycle is stalled and is not fully in the negative phase yet, delaying the onset of the next positive phase. Anyway, will try to dig a little more in the coming weeks. If I lived out West, I would be really excited about this winter, especially the northern Rockies. Last winter was about as bad as it gets here...so really no where to go but up. Pacific temp gradients(reference typhoon tip and Jeff here) have washed-out typical Pacific influences recently. Might it be that the La Nina restores that gradient AFTER this winter. Also, the IO will have a say.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Weeklies show an expected warm-up but the ridge is stubbornly holding over the Rockies. Not sure that makes it super cool here, but at least the mega ridge isn't parked over us. I don't mind warm summers. I don't like being under ridges. I know endless summer is likely with La Nina, but I am cool if we can find an anomalously cool pattern this fall for once! I mean with a week like this week, I feel like we have already have one less week of summer. Bout ten more weeks, and we might be able to see the first cold fronts of fall on LR modeling. So much better than last year so far. Seemed like summer had already been here for six weeks by this time during June.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Man, I could have worn a jacket this evening. I didn't, but I could have. I am digging this weather. Temps going into the mid50s tonight. I could almost pretend I was in the northern Rockies - almost.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, looks like a ridge is parked over the NW for a bit. Seems like the summer pattern may well be periodic ridging building into the East but also periodic troughs giving us some nice, prolonged breaks. I can live with that. The Nina kicking in does concern me a bit in terms of summer hanging on again this year. Seems like Nina Falls are scorchers.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Top of this page is a freeze warning....And today my car reading was 101F. My 72 hours of spring was nice while it lasted. Real feel was 97 on the almighty iPhone. Summer? Yes. Furnace? No. Great thing is a reasonably powerful cool front will plow into the East over the next few days. I must admit...I was jealous seeing 8" of snow in WY and MT.
  11. Carvers Gap
    How in the world did Knoxville have BN rainfall for May? Has to be the location at the airport being closer to the mountains. Any Knoxville folks think that is inaccurate for their backyards or have you all been getting less? That gauge is quite a bit different than Chattanooga or TRI.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Looks like high temps for May 2020 will finish ~10F cooler than May 2019 for TRI. That is truly a remarkable difference.
  13. Carvers Gap
    T-storms in the emergency landing area likely scrubbed that launch. Next window is 3:22 Saturday and then 3:00 Sunday if needed. Good looking rocket.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Sitting here getting ready to watch SpaceX/NASA put US astronauts into space...Looks like they have a window with t-storms pushing out to see and other storms in central Florida. Tight window but looks like it is there. 31 mins to go...Lift off is shortly after 4:30PM.
  15. Carvers Gap
    TRI is nearly 9F cooler than last may.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Looks like 20 were stranded. 13 are back safely now. As of 7:30 AM this morning, they still have seven to get out. I think the remaining folks are safe, but were waiting until sunrise to find a safe way out. Update: All hikers are out. https://www.wjhl.com/news/local/12-hikers-stranded-at-devils-bathtub-rescue-teams-on-scene/
  17. Carvers Gap
    Some fairly heavy localized rain this evening in SW VA and NE TN. Looks like one hiking spot has some folks stranded. https://wcyb.com/news/local/12-hikers-including-two-children-stranded-near-devils-bathtub
  18. Carvers Gap
    Still like this overall call, but would move the overall temps for winter to AN (and not slightly)...still with some extreme cold embedded in an overall warmer pattern. I think we do see some blocking, but we likely better score on the front end of winter. A strong Nina would likely be a warm and dry winter in NE TN. Moderate has a strong lean warm IMBY. However, there are some cold winters embedded within modern Nina climatology. That said, right now climatology has not been a great predictor of late IMHO.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Just for the record, I have been walking around in a light coat today. Did we by chance set some record low max temps in the area today? I finally went out and cut some firewood. That warmed me up.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Man, I could use some summer. I don't like excessive heat(which may be on its way), but this cold/rainy stuff during late May is growing old. As for next winter, if we are going to torch I just hope this Nina goes moderate to strong and cools the Pacific. We have done well during winters that follow those types of events. This winter I have very low expectations on the front end. Not many signals pointing towards a cold winter at all. Well, other than seasonal forecasting has been fickle of late.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, until the AMO flips...no reason to look for consistent -NAO winters. We will get a few from time to time, but not under this Atlantic set-up. PNA/EPO and Pacific SST are driving the bus right now and can be accentuated by a -NAO for sure(when it shows up). Several more years before the Atlantic has a favorable AMO. Right now(if I remember correctly), the AMO turned very hostile over the winter. Man, glad for the downslope this week in NE TN. WNC bout to get hammered by rain! @Met1985
  22. Carvers Gap
    Man, it was HOT today! Temp is at 85 currently. What is that, like 30 degrees higher than last weekend?! Garden is finally in....have a few oddball things still to plant, but everything is in.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Good deal. I understand now. Looks like a slp stalls over the SE in a week so that got me concerned. Looks chilly but no frost!
  24. Carvers Gap
    Where are you seeing that? Ugh?
  25. Carvers Gap
    I once walked into the old House of Ribs in Johnson City and saw Nikita Koloff and Lex Luger eating dinner together after a match, and having a great time.
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