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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    And hey, we even have a d10 storm on the 6z GFS. It progressive bias makes that unlikely, but it does phase that system. Maybe something to keep an eye on is the upslope event still being advertised for next Monday. That has been a fairly consistent feature for a few days now. You know if your area is favorable for that, but wouldn't surprise me for northwest facing slopes above 2,500'' to see measurable snowfall early next week with that. If that storm cuts and is as powerful as advertised....going to drive some cold air with latent moisture in it. Wouldn't be surprised to see areas on the Plateau, places like Max Patch, Roan Mt, and areas of western NC receive some snow from that. Thankfully we are not in a dry pattern. If there was one concern that I had during early-mid fall is that we were in a dry pattern. Keep the current pattern, and we should have our chances at some point just due to precip being in the pattern. Think it was 2017 that had that crazy cold shot in December where we had exceptional cold but no precip as the mega-EPO ridge was so tall that it had no precip.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Check that...now the 6z GEFS has joined the EPS in continuing the block over Greenland along with a trough east of Hawaii in the LR. Way out there, but good to see a continuation of the evening runs yesterday with the exception of the 0z GEFS. The 0z GEPS(edit) also looks workable. Maybe that Greenland block is doing some work. Might it also be that modeling is beginning to get a handle on the SSW event. I would definitely keep one eye over my shoulder with this...probably going to be a lot of movement. Even though I wave December warm...part of my gut thinks this December is going to buck some trends. As someone noted, the West is due for a warmer winter...and the East is due a cold one. Sometimes the law of averages comes into play if that makes sense.
  3. Carvers Gap
    The 0z EPS and GEFS have flipped in opposition to each other and the EPS is in eastern trough camp. Now, the EPS has been pretty awful of late. However, it is getting to be the time of year that we want it in our camp. As Jeff mentioned, once we get into winter proper, the LR models begin to settle down a bit. The EPS has a very workable pattern as it rolls the ridge through and keeps neutral to AN heights in the Davis Straights regions. We will see if it holds. The EPS has been reasonably steady with that look for a few runs. GEFS is bouncing around. It is really easy to get fooled at this time of year. Last year modeling(edit) looked cold - went warm. This year, the look has been cold...and now warm...and now one model back to cold. Going to take a few days to work this out I think.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Strong work. I hope it is short- lived. Always seems like strong blocking events decay slowly...unless of course it is blocking favoring the East coast. LOL.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, pretty significant warming at 10mb being modeled. What we don't know and what models don't model well...is where the blocking sets up after the SSW event. Last year, when the SSW was being signaled in mid-lat December(actually split in early Jan) seems like much of the modeling signaled a cold mid-Jan into Feb. Obviously, the cold unexpectedly dumped west(unexpected relative to it being shown to go elsewhere from about 2-3 weeks out...If I remember correctly). I definitely buy the SSW throwing the indices into extremes. And I also think there will be some surprises(relative to what we are seeing and not seeing in modeling right now). The 12z EPS didn't look to bad BTW. 18z GEFS looks similar. Seems like the morning model suites have been warm and afternoon/evening suites have been cooler.
  6. Carvers Gap
    And sure enough the 18z GEFS goes stone cold in the LR. Seriously, it is like washing your car thinking it is not going to rain.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Pretty strong warm signal for mid-December with that CPC forecast for the AO...the MA forum has been discussing it today. So, I went and looked for myself. If that verifies...going to be some very warm air east of the Rockies somewhere. But hey, maybe this is our year to buck the indices. We will see. My guess is the SSW situation is triggering some crazy stuff at high latitudes. Everything(Modeling, indices, etc) went pretty wonky during the last two events. Not sure this one leads to a split...but it might as the PV looks fairly elongated on the 12z Euro d10 map at 10mb. I think we have a good window during that first week of December. Last year, basically same deal occurred. Great window and the models flipped almost concurrently to a less than favorable pattern towards the end of December. Only good thing about that...I don't think lightning will strike twice in the same place. Really don't want to see the AO go that positive...that would be a long term problem I think. I think Bob Chill in the MA forum compared it to an AK vortex. Don't want to see a big +AO or an AK vortex as the break down very slow many times. Again, a warm December is very plausible given the cold pattern that preceded it and that it is a Nino-ish ENSO set-up. Fingers crossed for Jan/Feb 2020 as last year it just went warm and never looked back. Hopefully, many of the models are on "mayhem mode" as this SSW and seasonal transition is probably making a mess of things. That said, we can definitely see into early winter now on modeling...not sure I am a fan at this point of what I see for early winter. But it is still early.
  8. Carvers Gap
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  9. Carvers Gap
    GFS(12z and 18z) and CMC(12z) are both hinting at a fairly strong upslope event beginning late Thanksgiving Weekend. 12z Euro is not too far off from that...looks a bit too wound up. Strong NW flow coming in nearly perpendicular to the mountains.
  10. Carvers Gap
    UTM at UK..Flipping channels and saw a driving drizzle(no idea what else to call it). Winds are gusting to 17mph. Temps is 44. WC is 37 per TV(seems like that would be colder). Evidently people are trying to get int the bathrooms just to warm-up. Looks cold, man.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Looks like a pretty good squall line around Knoxville. Any reports from folks under that line?
  12. Carvers Gap
    The Tennessee subform rocking impressive metaphors this week. Pretty sure I will be laughing about Jeff's quote (about adventure books and the GFS) for a long time. And I will also be using the phrase in that tweet again - 99 cent bin superstorm.
  13. Carvers Gap
    That is pretty craptastic, but glad you are back! Hopefully this week will be smoother. I had a similar week about two weeks ago.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Man, missed you during the latter half of this week. Been too quiet on the forum. Hate to hear that about the deer. That is scary stuff. There are loads in my neighborhood. Around hunting season in my area, they frequent road areas and back yards. And yeah, it would be hard not just to put it in the ditch if one smashed into the car...good job on her part to keep it in the road.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Awesome. LOL. That run looked like it was running for office...promised something to every region of the country, and no way it is going to deliver. 12z GEFS looked steady though.
  16. Carvers Gap
    I knew something was up. Good to have you back.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Look at the min for the region shown on this map from the 12z GFS. -77.1F!!! Looks like our source region for cold is getting a bit better.
  18. Carvers Gap
    SSWs in my opinion are like letting a bull loose in a china shop....The only thing predictable is that it is going to wreck havoc. Seemed like last January's SSW did actually propagate downward fairly effectively into two or three daughter vortices at the tropospheric level. There was extreme cold associated with and record snowfall in western Montana and western Wyoming. One might make an argument that it took nearly ten months for those effects to wear off. They had snow well into May and June at 6,000' out there. Their warm season lasted only from July to August, before winter came very early. Unpredictably severe cold is often associated with them. Plenty of SSWs do "fail." I think we just want it properly shaken...not stirred. Sorry...couldn't resist.
  19. Carvers Gap
    That -68F over Greenland at 324? Has the GFS ever gone that low on this side of the globe? Not sure I remember seeing anything remotely that cold on the GFS in that area.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Working through modeling, Twitter, JMA, and even a little JB this AM....I think the cold start to December is plausible. I have seen some 1960s analogs being tossed around. I do agree that the setup being portrayed is a bit unusual in that teleconnections favor both an eastern and western trough. Pac is favorable for the West. Atlantic is favorable for the East. There are significant differences in how the American model and Euro model are handling the MJO. The GEFS is taking the MJO through the COD and back into the cold phases. The ECMWF crawls(and I mean crawls) through the warm phases of the MJO. That might be why we are seeing some differences in modeling. The GEFS has handled things better in the d10-15 range lately. I never completely trust any model, but especially not the GFS/GEFS combo. That said, they have don really well. Here is the MJO link so you can see for yourself... https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml
  21. Carvers Gap
    Pretty amazing to see the LR models flip-flop all over the place right now. It is not unusual for sure, but pretty much every day now in the d9-15 range - massive changes in the NA circulation pattern. The EPO ridge is so tall on the 6z GEFS that it tucks a trough underneath it. Saw that most of last winter. So, we definitely want an EPO ridge..but not on steroids where the trough can tuck under it. The -NAO helps on the GEFS. On the EPS, the ridge is far enough West that the cold dumps West. It has a weaker -NAO. I am just wary right now. Last year, many models were almost universally cold in their depiction through mid-December. After that early snowstorm in NE TN, the models flipped to a big EPO ridge with a trough tucked under it. In the middle of all of that was a big SSW event. I think until that event happens, modeling cannot be trusted during and beyond that event(minor or major). Also, can't tel much until that -NAO establishes. Once in place, very stubborn to move and models will almost always break it down too quickly.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Kind of a fun weather day on ensembles. Lots of positives to talk about(like that?). We will see if the trend continues tomorrow. As someone said in the MA forum, I am a tad bit wary after seeing such great modeling last year...only to have the rug pulled out at the last minute. Very strong block being portrayed for early December. Here's to 0z not flip-flopping back to a less favorable pattern. Today's looks were pretty awesome.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Just put in an order for gopher wood to Amazon.
  24. Carvers Gap
    And there is Boone's full latitude trough...right on time.
  25. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS as well as 6z GFS are advertising an Arctic origin air mass late in both runs. 12z is still running. That is frigid. Some -30+ stuff streaming across the pole from Siberia.
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