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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    LR...tough call. Yet again, LR models are depicting a fairly strong ridge to return to the East during the third week of December. Why do I say "tough call?" Well, interestingly ensembles also showing AN heights over Greenland during the same time frame. Way out there...it looks like the Aleutians trough returns(that we lose around d10 and replace with an eastern Pacific ridge starts to push inward) - meaning that may not be a permanent feature. I do know one thing, ridges that get established in the East are tough to move once there. On a sour note, the CFSv2 has flipped to a warm January after weeks on end of depicting that month cold. It could easily flip back as it is a "flavor of the month" type model anyway. Just thought I would give a heads-up that it appears that the warmth that was shown for mid-month has re-appeared on ensembles, just one week later. Will it hold? No idea. It hasn't for a few weeks. But anytime models are in "lock step" probably best to at least throw some shade their way. It is possible that the trough out West could correct eastward, but we will see. Finally, there was a lot of talk yesterday about a potential PV split - maybe at 50 mb? If that happens...modeling should start to really jump around. Maybe that is why we are seeing blocking showing up out of the blue in Greenland. As for Tuesday, tough call yet again...probably cold chasing rain but we had a similar set-up in mid-November that worked out quite well.
  2. Carvers Gap
    I wake up and find 21 new posts...
  3. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I think the trick is just getting the big high since we don't have blocking. Otherwise, those systems are going to zip right along. On a positive note, there is some potential for over-running in terms of snowfall. That cold will be stubborn to move. Like John said, 14-15(could have been 13-14) had a winter with lousy blocking teleconnections besides the Pacific. I have been thinking about the +AO data that you mentioned(great stuff BTW). I just wonder if this is a year where the +AO might be a bit deceiving. With a big EPO block, we essentially have blocking with cold air coming straight off the pole. Now, a +AO most winters is a big problem...and I am not sure we will ever over-achieve like 14-15(to paraphrase Bob Chill I think), but I do think John has a point. John and I used to argue back and forth at times(not really argue...just teasing really) about how important the Atlantic is in terms of blocking. Problem, is until the AO flips negative...the Pacific is the driver right now with marginal help from the Pacific. So, he has sort of sold me on that, but I do like a good old fashioned -NAO....sort of like owning a Ferrari. Nice to look at on modeling, but when the time comes...pretty much not something achievable by the common man. I will also so, if we lose the Pacific...gonna get warm! I do hold out hope that we actually do see some blocking over Greenland as we lose the Pacific. That type of blocking might show up in mid-Jan per Nino climatology and this SSW stuff. If we are able to steal December from the throws of warmth, we have achieved something in my book. Pretty overwhelming how warm Nino Decembers have gotten in the past. That said, there are some colder clusters though smaller in number.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Pretty amazing how different the pattern looks with those big highs showing up in the Northern Plains. Basically flattens the pattern out and prevents cutters on modeling...On the GFS, there are now three events to track inside of 10 days. They are small but better than what we typically get at this time of year.
  5. Carvers Gap
    It appears the 12z GFS has rediscovered the potent slp next weekend...amazing how that happens over and over again. Now, it is a warmer system as their is a low in the Lakes. But plenty of time for that to change. For a progressive model like the GFS to have that. My guess would be(if real) a more wound-up system further inland.
  6. Carvers Gap
    As Holston mentioned...going to have to keep an eye on that the system Tuesday into Wednesday. Both the 12z ICON and the GFS are touting 1040+ highs. Reminds me of the system a couple of weeks ago. Probably cold chasing rain...but that is big cold chasing rain. Also, will it develop a wave along the front per the icon?
  7. Carvers Gap
    ...And the 0z Euro w a tease way out there. Interesting to see the models really looking to bring a system nearly due north out of the GOM at that d8-10 range. That threat has never really materialized inside of d6 or 7. With the sharp EPO ridge out West, it does make sense. Would not be surprised to see one of those materialize in the d5-6 range sort of out of the blue OR just a thread that was "rediscovered." Again, it is not uncommon for global models to lose storms around d7 and then find them again.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Oddly, I am not as worried about timing(maybe I should be)...just want that big high. The two ingredients in a set-up without Atlantic blocking are an active jet and a good source of cold. The GFS and CMS have those...and both have energy in the pattern at about the right time given the range we are at which is a week+.
  9. Carvers Gap
    And sure enough, the GFS finally finds its storm. The key is whether that big high is real. I think the southern stream is going to be active. The CMC has a 1044 high on it...let's see where it goes. Those big highs, for example, are similar to what caused the snow a few weeks ago. The are potent.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Even though the "big one" wasn't on this GFS run, still plenty to be encouraged about...the big high was there, but trailing. Still a very active pattern with three pieces of energy in the pattern. If that big high shows up, someone is going to pay the pipe in an active pattern IMHO. Pay me now or pay me later.
  11. Carvers Gap
    All three operational (GEM, GFS, GEM) have it is some form or another. The Euro is missing the cold high on this run...had it at 12z yesterday. This is a storm that has been popping up on models suites for a few days if I remember correctly. So, pretty good signal there. Like we had a couple of weeks ago, the strength of that high is important with no blocking out front. If we can get a 1040 hp over the top, lots of wintery precip is possible. A 1050+ high would be crazy. Still a long way to go...just like 30 more runs of the GFS. LOL. I will say that modeling does often pick up big events from decent range. Is this one of those events? I guess time will tell. Looks like EPS/GEFS do have some support for this in terms of mslp placement.
  12. Carvers Gap
    1053 high parked over the top.
  13. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro/EPS cooking up something late next week?
  14. Carvers Gap
    Just meaning I wasn't overly impressed with current SSTs or forecasted ones. I think it is good enough to get us through winter...weaker the better in my book as long as we don't dip to a nada. And yes, moisture train looks good for this month at least and prob normalish after that.
  15. Carvers Gap
    12z GEFS again looks cold from about 144 to the end of the run....variability prior to that. The EPS ridge is just massive. Have to think if that verifies, it is going to be much colder than modeled. And there was really not sign of it letting up. As always, have to be careful of a trough getting tucked under that ridge - how many times have I said that? LOL. Again, I think the Nino-ish forcing mechanism will kick it out. As for the Nino, starting to look a bit putrid. This may very well be a true weak El Nino, very weak.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Pretty interesting to see ridging events appear in the East only to be muted or erased as we draw closer. Looks like we may very well have a significant cold shot right in the middle of what was supposed to be another ridging event. Definitely a trend(ridge going West after being modeled East) to keep an eye on.
  17. Carvers Gap
    I think right now, there is a storm signal(maybe multiple) after December 10th. Often big storms will precede a cold outbreak. A cutter wouldn't surprise me...but if that cuts, it will deliver bitterly cold air. Then that boundary likely sets the stage for an overrunning event. Best case scenario is a Miller A followed by cold and snow. Worst case is a cutter that drives the boundary to Cuba. I like what I am seeing so far...lots of options on the table. Some are good and some are bad. The Euro also tends to over-amp systems while the GFS is progressive. At this range, just tough to know...but that is a cold, cold set of EPS/GEFS ensembles. I suspect were are nowhere close to this working itself out. Pretty impressive.
  18. Carvers Gap
    The problem with the Euro is that it messes around in the Southwest and is wrong about 2/3 of the time. And that bias causes it to be slow sometimes. The Euro has often been too warm this fall. The GFS can sometimes be too quick with cold - right idea often but a few days too fast. However, if one blends those two looks and the timing, that is a pretty good set-up for cold and snow in the East beginning about d10-12. Probably also worth pointing out that often times modeling will underestimate how far south that cold gets. I do think the ENSO set-up is going to force that trough out of the West. I would not be surprised to see a big high settle into the front range and then spread out. I don't mind seeing the core of the cold at the northern border of the US. If that cold air mass is real, it likely verifies at about the latitude of roughly Chicago IMHO. Not sure @John1122 can take another snowstorm in New Orleans. LOL!
  19. Carvers Gap
    PSU in the MA thread mentioned that if you look at the 850 temps on the Euro, it is moving towards the broad trough idea. Bob Chill and FRD talk a little (they were just throwing it out there...not a forecast and more just fun speculation...forgive me if that is wrong!) about how an overrunning event could be derived from that broad trough look on the American model. I tend to agree. Long way to go, but a fun set of model runs, especially considering that modeling looked awful several days ago. Definitely interesting.
  20. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GEPS does offer a word of caution. The EPO ridge gets so tall on it...that the GEPS tucks a trough under the big ridge. So, that is the danger we need to be wary of in terms of the LR. This actually happened last year. Modeling went crazy for a cold East...and the trough tucked West. I don't think the Nino will let that happen now that it is coupled. However, there may be a window there for that to happen due to the IOD firing. Long term, that tough likely gets kicked out of there. Besides, park a 1050+ high over MT, and let's see what happens!
  21. Carvers Gap
    Check out the thermal profile one the US on the GEFS after that. But yeah, trouble written all over that pattern. Pretty amazing shift in modeling during the past 48 hours. I think the 12z GFS operational has a 1057 parked over western Canada on its run. To me the GEFS is more impressive than the operational.
  22. Carvers Gap
    End of the Euro run has extremely cold air entering northern Canada, spreading out, and head south. EPS should be interesting.
  23. Carvers Gap
    I should note that the Euro is not at the range where the the other models hit some extreme stuff.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Looks like the 12z GEFS supports the operational. Now, all eyes turn to the Euro/EPS. Euro through 204 is cold but less impressive. The 12z GEFS is pretty cold for an ensemble.
  25. Carvers Gap
    12z CMC is right there with it. Wow, Canada gets cold on the GFS and CMC in a hurry.
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