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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    I like where the CFSv2 is the morning(it changes often...beware for those new to following wx modeling). Warm rest of November which now looks like a really good call. December begins to dial back the heat, and January w maybe a decent window of opportunity as Jeff alluded to with his excellent graphic on Euro clusters for Jan(really appreciate that share). So, just reading between the lines, looks like we revert to normal(maybe BN) temps by mid-December. I have no idea how long that holds, but would guess to week 2ish of Jan and maybe even week 3. I could easily be wrong, but we may have a shot at cold weather over the holidays. OTH, there is a very really scenario where we just stay ridiculously warm all winter. Why? The MJO regions in the equatorial western Pacific have not cooled as much with the La Nina. If that holds, that is a perfect storm for a really warm winter when combined with moderate to strong La Nina.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Temps next week are forecast at TRI to be 10-20 degrees AN. Our normal highs begin in the mid 60s and lower into the upper 50s as the week goes on. Highs are supposed to be in the mid-upper 70s. Those are some pretty amazing highs considering that days are shorter, and the sun's angle is lower. About a month ago, I thought we had avoided endless summer....wrong.
  3. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS after d10 is a significant break in continuity. Not worth much more discussion on my part. More likely than not that is a hiccup. Not even sure that is worth a mention in the main forecast thread, but sometimes the GFS can catch a pattern shift a bit early and often jumps the gun even. But the 500 pattern is a lot different after d10 compared to other runs by the same model.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Definitely. Said as much a few weeks back. My main concern is the pattern is showing next to no sign of flipping. If anything, the high over the Aleutians is getting stronger...even on seasonal models. We will have a chance or two, always do. I am just not a fan of near record warm temps in Nov. The ridges (in the East) which are being depicted are about as strong as I can remember. One other concern is that the type of warmth being shown likely has staying power. It might take 1-2 weeks of a new pattern just to scour this out. When these attempted cold fronts come through from the NW, the warmth rebounds almot like it is summer. Just crazy to see cold fronts gain headway into the East even during Nov. Hoping the 4-6 week pattern rule wins the day. Seems like we have been in this pattern for a majority of the past 3 years....meaning cold dumps in the front range of the northern Rockies and can’t push SE once we get deep into fall and into winter. I do suspect that the atmosphere will balance things out with a western ridge at some point. If we are going to have a La Niña, needs to be strong so as to bring the PAC Basin backing balance - been far to warm relative to norms.
  5. Carvers Gap
    The current pattern of a ridge in the East is about as "locked-in" as one can get on modeling. Barely a hint of it breaking down during the next 4-6 weeks. Summer is back.
  6. Carvers Gap
    If there is one fly in the ointment of the really warm look, it is the tropics. It is not out of the realm of possibility for a storm to shake-up the pattern. I think Jeff mentioned this as a possibility. What we would need is for one of those storms to go hybrid, and drive the trough deep into the East and force the PNA to pop. That might back-up the pattern enough to force the ridge out of the Aleutians(that Aleutians ridge is there for nearly the entire 46 day run of the Weeklies).
  7. Carvers Gap
    I think I am going to have to update my winter forecast from over the summer to much AN for December, but going to wait a week or so before doing that. Weeklies have 5-10 days which are seasonal in Dec, and pretty much AN to much AN for most of the run - goes out to the third week of December now. Very little relaxation from the upcoming, very warm pattern...which sometimes that much continuity can be a red flag. That said, I am seeing very little in the way of teleconnections which would support cold in the East - that big ridge in the Aleutians is pretty much locked in. Impressive warmth upcoming for November and will feel much like early summer. Let's hope it is wrong. Looks very much like a strong La Nina pattern.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Really warm week next week shaping up. Not many "low hanging fruit" record highs though. Still, looks like Nov 11 with a high of 76 is our best shot at TRI. But y'all, those are going to be about as warm as one can get for November....so other record highs cannot be ruled out. Will take some time to get rid of that warmth once the pattern changes. That type of heat just doesn't disappear. Atmosphere is going to be supercharged with plenty of energy. Past that, not many hints that the pattern does anything but stay really warm in the East. We all know in fall that can change swiftly, however. I would guess this pattern might last into the early part of December. As I noted earlier, maybe the silver lining is that we "might" be setting up for a switch to cooler around mid-Dec. That said, if you like cool wx for fall...this pattern we are about to enter pretty much sucks.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Good looking yard, Powell.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Jeff, do you think that warm water in the NW PAC holds on all winter? I have read a few posts where some think it may cool off. I think if we are going to have some cold at some point, we need it there....
  11. Carvers Gap
    As Stove noted, looks like below freezing temps for a couple of mornings early next week. After that, a prolonged warm-up appears on tap. Would not be surprised to see some record highs fall. We about got one here last week unexpectedly. The warmth is expected to be a long duration event. Now, we have seen that modeled before during November 2-3 years ago. Modeling flipped to a cold end of that month. So verbatim speaking, looks like some AN temps(even much AN) through at least week 3 of November - if not longer. My cold start to winter is definitely in jeopardy. Shoulder season wx modeling is particlulary fickle, but models seem to be fairly dialed in right now with an eastern ridge and western trough w AN temps being signaled over the SE.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Almost looks like outflow boundaries on convection. Did we have any convection yesterday?
  13. Carvers Gap
    Has been a great year here. Hate to see it go.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Man, was hoping you would talk about the Weeklies. Obviously next three weeks are predominantly warm on most modeling. Just wanted to see what you think after that....
  15. Carvers Gap
    EPS @12z is showing a ridge that would surely produce many record highs East of the MS in early November Man, that is massive ridge. Thing is, those ridges once the break in fall can lead to some really cold temps in my experience. If we can get that ridge to hold for about three weeks, might give us a shot at an early start to winter. So, IMHO there is a silver lining in that big ridge.
  16. Carvers Gap
    17-18 had that wicked cold snap right after Christmas, but we went bone dry. If we could score a cold shot like that again, might have a shot. Rest of the winter stunk, but I remember a squirrel walking across the creek that I jog near - surface was frozen solid. Rivers here froze as well. We had the early snow here in 18-19. So NE TN, has had its moments...but consistently cold weather seems improbable to me this winter. That said, there are a cluster of analogs which are cold given this set up. We want that warm water in the NE PAC to hold I think. Might displace the cold out of the northern Rockies from time to time. The Weeklies(which not reach into December do seem to signal high latitude blocking reforming later in November.
  17. Carvers Gap
    I know it is basketball...but we could call it the AmWx.Com Bowl. LOL.
  18. Carvers Gap
    @nrgjeff Kansas vs Tennessee on Jan 30th in Knoxville. Was announced today as part of the BigXII/SEC matchups.
  19. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS dropped half a foot over west TN just after 240 and then boomeranged another storm inland into a hybrid ice storm in the mountains.
  20. Carvers Gap
    And the 12z Euro was close....really cold Northwest flow look at the end. Again, banter means HUGE grain.
  21. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS. LOL. Looks like the dead of winter after d10. If that occurs, it will align with the "early snows equal crap winters" IMBY....the old Halloween snow equals no snow for winter alignment. Hour 252....crazy in terms of snow. End of the run...crazier in terms of temps.
  22. Carvers Gap
    I really like the idea of pattern discussion in the Banter Thread. Way more laid back....LOL. Been hurrying up and waiting for like two years in terms of weather. What is weird is that Kentucky games are always cold. Played it earlier this year and tried to full Mother Nature....and she still figured it out. Just give me cold and Dec 5th(as cold as reasonably possible) for the Florida game.
  23. Carvers Gap
    On the 6z GEFS and 0z EPS...d10-11 looks nice. That type of deep trough could be mischief in terms of an early season storm. Of course, way out there....but that is the kind of look that could pull a tropical system into something that goes hybrid. Wouldn't be surprised for the mountains to see something around that time frame. It would also fit the pattern of the past few years of early cold and winter precip....and then crap. LOL.
  24. Carvers Gap
    My first GFS digital snow at on the 18z run at hour 288.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Mainstay looks like some sort of trough over the Aleutians. I think we need to again cast a wary eye on any type of sustained blocking over Greenland. It certainly could happen, but recent modeling seems to have a bias for AN heights there in the LR only to modify duration quickly as reality approaches.
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