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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    I have gone over the 12z EPS and GEPS and 18z GEFS. Just chilling on Christmas Day evening. If there is anything I can gather...the coldest air on the planet (speaking of anomalies only) is going to be in North America. All modeling wants to keep this centered in the West....and the GEFS and EPS allow that cold air to spread east and se in pieces from Alaska. The 18z GEFS allows much of North America to be overtaken by BN temps. Looks like bias in play, but the EPS does something similar to a lesser degree. Not sure how they are pulling that off given multiple indices showing otherwise. Something I am just kicking around....if we manage to get that much cold air into North America, maybe it just overrides the system. Probably not...but modeling is actually showing this happen. My guess would be a SER in place most of the time. Might even be cold coming in chasing storms. But it would be very cold air behind those storms. Might be that each storm presses the boundary southward.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Some good discussion in the MA thread about the +AO and -PNA and some of the cooler looks being thrown out there by the model in spite of poor high latitude blocking signals(PSU and BChill discussing that). Not a lot of analogs to support cold with those indices being the reverse of good. So, likely those indices are wrong...or there is going to be a significant SE ridge...or we have the rare eastern winter where we get cold with poor teleconnections in place. I would recommend reading that discussion. It is pretty interesting. I would bet on the SER, but as much as the weather went totally out of whack last year...would not surprise me to see another wonky year where things don't fit. I still halfway think that trough corrects east in the LR...I just don't have much support for that thinking right now. Again, the MJO delayed its move into the warm phases this AM and took a peak at phase 8. Need to keep an eye on that. Add in the QBO and SOI(especially the deeply negative SOI), and there are some ingredients in there for model volatility coming up. Not seeing it yet, but the SOI implies something afoot.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Still, the EPS cool trend from 0z to 12z in notable yet again. Rarely does the EPS cool at 0z. I think this current warm-up has been modeled fairly well. The EPS LR was generally the warmest of the global ensembles for the forum area this December. GEFS was cold in the LR. The EPS will easily verify. I suspect the EPS is probably correct for the next couple of weeks...Hopefully, we see some cracks in the western trough armor by then. This is definitely a time of year that can leave one looking pretty silly. While I was fairly all-in on this upcoming warm-up, I am treading lightly once we get to the second week of January. I am reading some more posts about the PV tightening up...gotta hope that doesn't happen. If so, sustained January cold is likely not happening. The EPS at least implies that we see one and maybe two decent cold fronts. With an active storm pattern, anything can happen. Deep into a pattern cycle, I trust the EPS less and less, because it will miss the change to a new pattern quite often and the GFS operational will often catch it first - especially if the flip is to cold. So the question now is not whether it will be warm...it is going to be. The question now is the duration. If that PV tightens up...LONG wait. But if it sits up there is just sends a piece SE every 7-10 days...that is workable. I would not say there is much uncertainty right now in terms of temps for the next couple of weeks. After that...maybe that is where the transition sits.
  4. Carvers Gap
    So this is waaaay out there. But when the ensemble looked warm, I was like...just a torch(and that is exactly what is depicted). However, I started to dig through its 2m temp map and it wasn't as warm. I do agree with John that the EPS often backs off as it gets closer in terms of warmth as that is a bias of it...GEFS does the same but with cold moderating to warmer. Still a pretty ugly pattern, but I also noticed that some of the MJO forecasts were creeping into phase 8 this morning and pushing back the quick move across the COD into 5. The CFS remains the loan holdout and takes the MJO into cold phases and does not go into the warm phases...would be a big time coup for that model. Anyway, look at the options on the table this far out...
  5. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, let me see if I can pull up all of the individual ensemble members. Going to try to put them on one upload so as to save space. It is not a slam dunk. It is about 50/50 warm/cold.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Actually...I was getting ready to edit. It is not as bad as I thought. I typed too soon. Still a pretty massive ridge over the East. But the trends from the overnight run are yet again cooler than 0z and in some cases significantly. Still warm...just not ridiculously warm. Looks like a decaf version of the GEFS.
  7. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS with an enormous lump of coal.
  8. Carvers Gap
    I have been to Israel twice. Really enjoy visiting...also, lots of microclimates. Check out the weather on Mt Hermon right now. Heavy snow and 74km/h winds. Check out the live web cam on top of the mountain...howling! https://www.skihermon.co.il/en/#videosection
  9. Carvers Gap
    Must have placed this in banter accidentally... A slight glimmer of hope this AM...Both the 6zGFS and EPS-Control show strong heights building in the eastern Pacific with downstream troughing. Those runs in and of themselves are good. The actual EPS/GEFS ensemble depict an EPO ridge that is too far to the West and drops the trough into the West. What that means is that there are likely more members solutions to the West than East. However, with an operational and control showing an eastern trough...there is some(even if slight) possibility that the trough comes eastward. Just a guess, but I might suspect that we are beginning to see the first hints that modeling is going to change up the current warm pattern. Usually see some head fakes on operational runs before ensembles take hold. Still think we are at least a couple of weeks before we even hit the transition time frame. Still, we should see one cold shot around the new year prior to reverting to warm. What would be awesome is if that cold dug deep enough to set up the eastern trough early. So, maybe some slight hints by modeling that we might be moving to something consistently less than hostile by mid-January.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Current weather in Bethlehem is 52F with a chance of rain...kind of sounds like the past few days here!
  11. Carvers Gap
    And the QBO at 30mb has gone strongly negative this morning. It bounces around some, but we want it on the left of the column consistently. If it stays there, it raises the chances of high latitude blocking pretty significantly. Would have been nice to see it there in November, but that would have been an early flip. A cycle of the QBO takes about 28 months which means it stays positive for about fourteen months before going negative. It double dipped positive one cycle ago which coincides nicely to some pretty so-so winters. Pretty awesomely, December is month 14 of being positive...and there it sits as negative. Fingers crossed it doesn't stall, but that is a pretty good drop. Also, I am not sure what the time lag is regarding its effects on hemispheric circulation, but that is a pretty sharp drop and one would think the effects would be felt sooner than later since it is a wind reversal.
  12. Carvers Gap
    And the SOI this morning is??? Hint: Google...Long Paddock and SOI.
  13. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro lived up to its nickname of Dr No.
  14. Carvers Gap
    I think when we look back, the abnormally high IOD is going to have been a major player in this warm month. Now frd in the MA forum has an updated report on the quickly falling index. Question is...how much lag time does that index have before its effects hit modeling? No idea.
  15. Carvers Gap
    And one takes into account that it likes to over-amp things....definitely a window to watch and maybe for the next couple of days after that even. You upslope folks might do well in its wake. I don't think the GLs are frozen over yet.
  16. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS basically had it, but its progressive bias might have washed it out. And right there is how it can snow during a warm pattern and why there is a camp 2 regarding winter weather. Some years, we can't buy a storm...others we seem to hit even during warm patterns. I have mixed emotions on this one with family traveling back from Pasadena during the early January winter wx window. What you all need me to do is buy a ticket to the Rose Bowl Parade and that will guarantee a HECS!
  17. Carvers Gap
    Good find. Definitely a window around that time frame...
  18. Carvers Gap
    FRD has some going IOD stuff in the MA forum. It is falling which we new, but had huge values during early winter. Here is one thing that I notice in recent modeling...the ensembles seem agree too much with the actual operational. That characteristic alone is making it difficult to cull out bad operational model runs. Ideally, the ensemble should not bounce around like the operational. The GEFS is all over the place. One run it will look poised to release bitterly cold air...next it is an entirely warm NA continent. Let's see if we can get something to buy into the 12z GFS/GEFS suite. So far, no takers.
  19. Carvers Gap
    12 GFS definitely continues its trend of being cold(er). Is it right? The CMC will have none of it and is very warm. It has been an outlier in the LR for about a month - wicked cold bias. That said, it did spot the November cold flip well before any other model. Problem is that it does not fit its recent MJO trend. It is going to need some support in the medium and LR before I give it any weight. So, is it still crying wolf or is it on to something? Hoping for a Christmas miracle over the next 36 hours!
  20. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, snow is a weird deal at this latitude. Doesn't take much to get us to normal. I am sure big coastals have a large say in TRI's snow averages, and it only takes one of those. I got 12" of snow at my house last year during early December. That was pretty much it, but that got me pretty close to a normal winter with one storm. My bushes still look terrible almost twelve months later. LOL. And temps finished well AN with near normal snowfall. If the MJO rolls into 5/6, the blue monstrosity is going to start taking a beating. What would be wild is for that super charged, cold air mass to get dislodged(the QBO and MJO argue for that...just no evidence of that yet). Not sure it is likely, but it is not out of the realm of possibility that the entire thing could get sent to lower latitudes. Wherever it goes, it is going to break some record lows. Fall pattern was very warm, and then took about 2-3 weeks to move to a very cold pattern in November. Something similar would not surprise me in the least. I just don't like near record warm temps in the heart of winter.
  21. Carvers Gap
    I stated this yesterday and it somewhat bears repeating. The reason folks like weak Nino patterns is that there is quite of bit of energy in they system. It is one of those types of wx patterns where it can and does snow during an otherwise warm pattern. Something I also noted is that there are two(chicken and egg) camps regarding potential for winter wx. Camp 1. Cold weather needs to be in place. Camp 2. Needs to be plenty of moisture in place. Two of the biggest snows that I have seen were during very warm but active patterns. It was a shutout otherwise. Jury is still out for late January and February. Could stay warm(sort of has that feel right now...but that is not scientific) or could flip on a dime. I don't think many were expecting(I wasn't) a PV to set-up shop over Alaska - that is going to create havoc with predicted seasonal timelines. And again, the Alaska deal can release piece of the PV southeastward. We have seen that from time to time on the cold prone GFS.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Order of importance right now IMHO...When in doubt, look to the oceans... 1. Indian Ocean convection - abnormally positive IOD in early winter. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/dmi.long.data 1. MJO is easy pick for me. Lots of convection where we don't want it, even if low amplitude. Correlates very well, even at very low amplitude(even in the COD), with the warm weather we have had this month. It is also the reason that I have been banging the drum for this warm-up. 2. The unusual ENSO state with cold water neat South America, warm in the western Pacific. 3. Warm water in the GOA. 4. Tightening PV over AK which I think is a 2 week phenomenon there. 5. Recent seasonal trends during the past decade which feature warmer falls and cooler springs. Weaker signals. 1. SOI 2. QBO Wild cards: Solar and sea ice. Also, it is important to note that several Nino winters(some admittedly super) were very warm during the 90s. Again, patterns can and do flip on a dime. I don't see a ton of that(edit: meaning sustained cold) during the next two to three(edit) weeks.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Been a great Christmas Eve discussion. I have to go get a run in and then do some Christmas stuff. Heres to a better looking MJO and model suite over the next few days! Merry Christmas, everyone!!! I will try to check back.
  24. Carvers Gap
    MJO forecasts have updated on CPC...The CFS forecast above would be likely be a cold signal. It has changed from yesterday as it no longer goes completely through the cold phases and has dropped into the COD after a few days in phase 8. It is the only model that I can find with decent MJO phases, but is trending away from that. The Euro depiction takes the MJO into phase 5 and then basically stalls there. Looks like what the CFS is trending towards that. The GFS/GEFS matches the Euro. I can't stress this enough...we need that to change soon as that is generally a prolonged warm signal for eastern NA. Now, the MJO has done multiple head fakes into those regions for the past couple of months and it has not made it there. As noted above, the weakening of convection in phases 1/and 2 is likely allowing for the MJO to loop back into phases 5 and 6. Will it get there and how long will it stay if it does? Climatology/ENSO state argue strongly against this, but there it is on modeling nonetheless. Let's see where modeling goes today and tomorrow... Might be pay me now or pay me later type deal though. If 6 warms, it could eventually break loose a very cold PV and force it to lower latitudes. It would occur during late winter though.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Jax, when you say destructive....is that referencing the NA pattern and eastern warmth or is that referencing the dual phase (both 1/2 and 6) being depicted by IR satellite images?
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