Carvers Gap

The CMC and Euro both have decent solutions for portions of our forum area. The 6z GFS appears to be pushing the front too far to the south when compared to its ensemble and when compared to other global models. Suppression js definitely a significant risk here, but snowstorms in Tallahassee are unlikely but not out of the realm of extreme possibility - for now, I toss those runs. I haven’t looked at 500, but I wonder how much different it looks in the western US. The 12z Euro looked too wound up The GFS runs which slide across and make a slight NE turn make a lot of sense - 1996 style. The 0z GFS made more sense. The CMC also looks realistic. Potwntial for a big EC storm is growing. Cold is still on modeling - severe on many runs.

The Euro AIFS is less extreme and more reasonable in terms of temps...That snowstorm in Florida? Maybe less reasonable.

Interesting to see them pull a lead up analog. The 18z GFS implied that another cold shot might follow the big one. That potential next cold shot would be sliding across new snow and wouldn’t have to overcome warm temps. Big hitter analogs. Jan-Feb 96 in Kingsport might have seen 35-40” of snow. Holston might know that number for sure. I kept coming home from Knoxville to giant piles of snow in the big box store parking lots - like two stories tall. Official snow records for that timeframe are dubious at best.

D8-14 CPC analogs....Jan 1977 double weighted. Jan 1985 triple weighted. 50% of the analogs are from the two coldest winters of my lifetime. Throw in Dec 1995(lead up to 96), and 60% of analogs are winters I would be afraid to use in a seasonal forecast! I thought about 95-96, but put it back on the shelf for retired HOF analogs. CPC is gonna go big or go home! 19850118 20001227 19770116 19810103 19850109 19850123 20001222 19770121 20070125 19951228

There are a few runs where I maybe say...that might be right on the edge of what I don't want to see from winter. That is flirting with it. Ice followed by that type of cold would be rough. That is a 5 day map. It is at a range that is probably going to change as it is d10-15(plenty of cold inside of d10!). 34 degree departures over 5 days is incredible. The concern is multiple models are showing this type of cold at one time or another. Normally, I would just do a forum accums map. However, I know we have some Midwest folks who drop in, so I will widen the scope a bit.

I have my doubts that is correct(likely error early on), but that is how you break the all-time record low. SW VA had a low of almost -18F on that run.

Coldest run I have ever seen in all my years following wx models and this hobby. There is something to be said for that.

There is another cold shot behind this one(that is new).

Man.

Lights are out in E TN on that run.

At 306, I think the wxbell algorithm just couldn't take it anymore. Rain(green color) failing into single digits.

I think there might be one right behind it. LOL.

GFS has dropped 3 BIG runs out of the last 6. Clipper incoming after that big storm.

Folks, I watched The Day After Tomorrow last week. That might have been the ticket.

That is just sick. Another monster solutions by the GFS.......wow. I don't think it is right, but I wish it was. However, modeling is trying to sniff something out in this timeframe.

Man.

Might lights are flickering at the thought. LOL

That is a monster.

That is gonna be huge. LOL. I really hate it did that over the Four Corners...ugh.

However, it isn't completely without precedent. It could happen. Big storms happen when systems leave something back. One thing I noticed is the initial low doesn't cut to Michigan. It cut to southern Ohio this run. I suspect we get back to the 6z solution. The GFS has been really too wound-up at this range for weeks and tends to flatten things out bigly as time goes on.

It is likely gonna be good, and it is likely gonna be wrong. That holding energy back over the Four Corners drives me crazy. Hopefully the ensemble will have some value.

Sucks to see it make this (likely)error, because the rest of the run is gonna be meaningless.

At 222, that might actually be very good but I fear the GFS is making its usual error of holding energy back - not a bad thing this run, but maybe not right. CMC was similar though.

18z GFS held something back on this run....flow is much flatter. This might get it done.

If those ensembles are anywhere close to being correct, record lows are likely going to fall. Getting a record low in mid January is tough!