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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    No change this morning regarding the upcoming cold and freeze/frost potential for this weekend. Overnight and morning global model runs did not trend warmer. For NE TN, looks like Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday mornings have a threat for frosts. Depending on which model you look at, Saturday and Sunday do have the potential for nighttime temps to dip below freezing. My point and click is already 32 for Sunday morning. The 0z Euro is trending colder(nearly ten degrees over the past several days for Sat/Sun), but is basically frost. The 6z GFS and 0z GEM are historically cold. Looks like MRX is riding with the Euro, and I don't blame them. However, I do know on recent cold mornings during April that temps were colder than forecast if the weather cleared and the winds went calm. Slim margins to work by for sure, and I don't envy that job. For now, I would say that Saturday and Sunday morning are going to be sketchy in NE TN, the northern Plateau, W NC, SW VA, SE KY. Of note, the 6z GFS is picking up on another quick shot of cold on Tuesday(that has been a common theme...the Euro has not had that one) and Friday of next week with patchy frost potential. Once we get by the freeze, my plants are going in the ground and we will just cover them at night. In other words, this pattern is repeating on the GFS. The Euro is having none of that, but it missed this weekend's cold. I think it is just shoulder season trouble which we know is common.
  2. Carvers Gap
    I have some of that on order. First year trying that type of corn. Do you like it? Probably won't get here until next week, so I am stuck planting it next week pretty much no matter what. Plus, my real fight is with raccoons later in the summer. LOL. I am probably going to have to break down and put an electric fence around the garden. Yeah, I would probably wait. It is unlikely the corn would be up by the time it frosts/freezes. However, the ground would be pretty cold and might hurt germination rates. If it isn't the cold that is a problem, it is the really wet fields. Tougher call in Knox Co. NE TN is an easier call as the cold looks likely this weekend. The problem with planting later is if the season goes really dry while it is producing corn. Tough start to a very important growing season in the SE. Keep us updated on how it does this summer!
  3. Carvers Gap
    The departures for May(comparing last year to this year only) will be impressive I think. Summer began last year during May, This year, we can't seem to shake March!
  4. Carvers Gap
    That is pretty incredible.
  5. Carvers Gap
    In their morning discussion, MRX is now warning of frost for the northern 2/3 of the valley this weekend. Saturday and Sunday look like good bets for frost. GFS also depicting a second cold shot of cold middle of next week, and then maybe that is it. My plants may go in the ground the very afternoon of the last frost. Really stretching how long they last in their containers. Cutting it close. Even for Thursday now, the 0z Euro has me at 35. Could be nearly a week with the threat of frost. The Euro has the northern half of the Plateau below freezing on Saturday AM with TRI and Knoxville with nearly the same temps 34-35. TRI again gets to 35 on Sunday AM with Knoxville in the upper 30s. The Euro does not have the second sneaky front, but the CMC and GFS do. That front is centered some time on Tuesday, and TYS seems. Of not the GEM and GFS have hard freezes in the I-81 corridor with temps 25-27 for TRI on Sunday AM. Truly remarkable to see that type of air mass which would be historical for this area. Those two models have a longer duration (meaning hours per night) event early Sunday AM. With those temps, I likely will make an effort to cover even my cool weather crops. Again, looks like several nights with the potential for frost beginning on Thursday AM and lasting to Tuesday or Wednesday of the next week. Right now, Saturday and Sunday AM look like the biggest problem with the highest probability of frost. Keep your fingers crossed that this modifies on modeling. It hasn't yet, but it still may. Otherwise, probably time to consider this as a real possibility since some of the models now have the threat under 84 hours.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Edited comment above...not low to mid 20s but low to mid 30s. Bad but not that bad!
  7. Carvers Gap
    From the MRX afternoon disco...excellent write-up BTW today. Sunday looks like the worst day, but the forecast timeframe is not there yet. Should know more tomorrow. There may even be another frost after Sunday. Thursday looks dry but then more rain on Friday as a shortwave moves across the region from out of the Central Plains/Missouri River Valley. While this is happening, another potent shortwave dives down out of Ontario and into the Ohio River Valley. This reinforces the longwave trough across our area and allows cold Canadian air to dive south into the region. This airmass will lead to max temps in the upper 50s and low 60s on Saturday and Sunday which is 10 to 15 degrees below normal. The big story is the overnight lows on Friday and Saturday night. Lows will range from near freezing across the northern areas to the low 40s across the southern TN Valley. Right now, the forecast lows for Saturday night/Sunday morning are only a few degrees off the record low temps. The records min temps for May 10th are as follows: CHA 38 in 1966, TYS 37 in 1906, TRI 32 in 1966.
  8. Carvers Gap
    No changes to yesterday's discussion regarding NE TN. Threat of a freeze and/or frost is still there. The signal for a severe(relative to season) cold snap is now growing. There are now several days which threaten at the very least frost. Models seem to be converging on temps in the low to mid 30s(edit) with all-time record lows for May still on the table.
  9. Carvers Gap
    I think in NE TN, Sunday and Monday(10th and 11th) are the times we will have to watch. The Euro again cooled. The 6z GFS again has a freeze on Sunday morning. The EPS is now quite cold. One week from Sunday, temps over night are forecast to be nearly 15-30 degrees below normal. We need to pull for the Euro as it is just patchy frost over NE TN. The GFS is a hard freeze w damaging frost reaching into northern Alabama and Georgia w Middle and East TN. The 0z GEM is in in the 6z GFS camp for Sunday AM with the freezing line reaching well south of Knoxville. Very much hoping this does not verify as the GEM and GFS show what would be an historically cold air mass on Sunday and Monday mornings(one week). That is absolutely NOT set in stone as we all know the rules about modeling this far out. Again, I know that this year gardening has a much more significant role in our society(and rightfully so)...so just trying to keep people in the know and let them make their own decisions. For those of us(stovepipe and me), we have plants that won't fair well for another week...so tough decision. The frost doesn't worry me as I can just cover plants. The potential freeze over NE TN is the concern, especially if it is 4-6 hours in duration.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Positive trend and a step in the right direction on the 18z GFS is it has removed the hard freeze...Still has plenty of frost for NE TN though. I still don't like seeing the cold trend on all modeling today. Really hoping climatology sticks a fork in those extreme solutions. Light frost we can work around. A mid-May hard freeze is nearly impossible to work around. My solution may just be adding a temporary hoop house for my tomatoes that go into the ground.
  11. Carvers Gap
    I did the same thing! I had to buy some 7" cow pots to save mine and build a hoop house. LOL. Even those are needing planted. Not sure I have 10 more days, but TRI looks nasty for next weekend. If I was in Knoxville, my decision would probably be different. Right now, I have to decide if I can get ten more days out of those plants in containers. Maybe. I have some great looking potatoes already in the ground. I hate to see those get set back. They will come back if frozen, but hate to see them get burned. I may build a hoop house over those. Nothing fancy. Just PVC, rebar, and plastic. Let's hope this modifies!!!!!
  12. Carvers Gap
    A blend of the 12z Euro, GEM, and the GFS still results in all-time record lows(for May) being challenged next weekend in some areas. Fingers crossed for moderation.
  13. Carvers Gap
    I should add that Knoxville is borderline on the Euro, but folks down there will need to keep an eye out. I will assume the GFS is a cold outlier, but even the warmer models are trouble if they cool just a tad more for the Central Valley. NE TN, SW VA, SE KY, the Plateau, and W NC need to really keep a close eye on the situation. Middle TN is not out of the woods either. This is a really pain in the neck BTW. I take no joy in discussing this whatsoever. None. Just discussing this as a courtesy. Seeds are tough to find right now as are some plants. Don't want to waste them.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, that caught my attention. I was going to plant this weekend...now I am heading to Lowe's to find the material for about 40' of temporary hoop house. That will be tricky as I won't put the plastic on while we have these hot temps. I will wait until ~Thursday and put the plastic on, but get the hoops in place this weekend. The airmass being shown on the Euro is 10-20 degrees below normal. I guess this is what happens when the PV wraps up to record levels and doesn't release cold on time! LOL - well not really laughing. Let's hope and pray that look modifies as it would be absolutely devastating to regional farmers in NE TN and W NC with strawberries already fruited. The plants will be fine, but the berries would potentially be burned with temps that low. Need to catch a break on this one. I have plants ready to go in this weekend. Going to have to coax them along for another ten days or so. Hate to be making decision based on a model 7-8 days out, but TR and FR are no gimme right now.
  15. Carvers Gap
    The 12z Euro OP had cooled by 5-6 degrees on Sunday(the 10th) and is nearly 15 degrees cooler for the night before. In NE TN they have gone from lows in the 50s on Saturday night(9th) to lows in the upper 30s in NE TN. Essentially, we went from no threat whatsoever in NE TN to patchy frost on Saturday and Sunday evenings next weekend. It didn't cave, but that was a massive bend.
  16. Carvers Gap
    The GEM has lows the following Monday in the mid 20s for NE TN. Areas of Knox Co would be in the 20s as well with downtown in the mid 30s. Anyway, plenty of time for that to change as that is out there in time. Just a heads up. Very bizarre to see two models now showing what would be a record setting event on consecutive nights. Let's hope the Euro holds. Update to follow later this afternoon.
  17. Carvers Gap
    I hear you. I am just across the mountain from you in TRI, and I feel your pain. That is a really ugly look next weekend. I have a small hoop house. May have to rig up a heater if those temps verify. Can you imagine the tree foliage with long duration temps in the 20s(teens at higher elevation)? GEM has temps fairly cold as well now - trended colder this run. Those are all time record lows(for the month of May) being challenged on both of those models for TRI.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Before hitting the panic button, it is going to have to have some support from other modeling at 12z before I believe it. We have been here many times with the GFS. It just gives me incredible pause as sometimes it can get lucky. Will update later after the Euro. So far, the Canadian is not remotely that cold. If I gamble(and set plants out) and it is right, we would lose months of hard work getting plants ready. OTH, if I wait, plants won't start producing fruit until prim blight times. Edit: The GEM is nearly 15 degrees colder than its previous run. Temps in the mid 30s for Sunday(the 10th) morning so far in NE TN...and not done dropping yet. Even those temps would begin to challenge all-time record lows. Update: Dang, the 12z GEM has temps in the low 30s over NE TN. 31 IMBY on that run. That would be several hours at our below freezing in NE TN. If the Euro folks like the GEM, I am going to hold off putting anything else in the ground.
  19. Carvers Gap
    For posterity. Departures from normal. It is day 9 so who knows, right? However, worth keeping an eye out right now as many are planting or have crops in the ground already. Rare to see that kind of output on a model.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Sure hoping the 12z GFS is off its rocker. At 210 it is advertising all-time record lows for TRI with lows well into the 20s in the valleys and teens in the mountains. The bad thing is that temps would be well below freezing for many hours. That would literally kill all foliage on trees right now. Oh, and did I forget to mention it has light snow for NE TN? Not sure I have ever seen the model that cold. Unless my eyes are fooling me, temps would be nearly 30 degrees below normal for much of the eastern 2/3 of TN. Crap. I really don't like the GFS.
  21. Carvers Gap
    April...not warm but incredible amounts of rain as John noted above. Pulled this from FB.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Put this in the obs thread on accident...The 6z GFS continues to scare home gardeners everywhere for next weekend. It may or may not be right - but that is impressive cold being depicted. Fortunately, it is not very good at that range. It now has a hard freeze for NE TN with heavy frost into north GA on Sunday I think. It has temps in the TRI in the mid 20s. The Euro Weeklies (yesterday evening)for next weekend also turned quite chilly w/ -9f departures for NE TN and -7F departures over the Central Valley. The 0z Euro OP is not on board with that(GFS) kind of cold. It has trended colder, but I can't find anything below 40 in E TN. Higher elevations in southwest VA seem especially at risk with this set-up and likely small towns in western NC at higher elevations. Normally, this upcoming weekend is a big weekend for gardeners to get warm crops in the ground. I am probably going to have to stagger planting so that I don't lose everything with a clear night and snap frost. I have already done some of that. If we were to take the GFS and Euro and split the difference...that is still a couple of cold nights next weekend. The problem for many of us is that you can't keep plants indefinitely in containers. Hopefully, 12z and 0z back-off. For now, there is a growing signal of a "close call" next weekend in the valleys of NE TN. This would be a great time to plant with 4-5 really warm days coming up. That would get plants established. If next weekend (and that week after) remain well BN, the growing season may push well into the third week of May - a full month later than last year.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Wow, man. That is unreal!!!
  24. Carvers Gap
    Thanks very much for the insight! The Euro and CMC have been hinting at temps in the low 40s. However, with the GFS putting temps into the low to mid 30s...that means I have to drag the tarps out of the shed again! LOL. I just couldn't find any support for those really cold GFS solutions. Upper 30s we can handle in the garden. Mid 30s get really sketchy in areas where there are dips in the surface. I tend to lean towards the Euro on this one. 12z GFS is already warmer for Thursday next week.
  25. Carvers Gap
    There are a couple of islands in the Holston that we only see when TVA has the generators off. That summer with the drought(where G-burg burned) those islands had grass growing on them. LOL. They rarely had water over them as the feeder streams were so low - even generation schedules rarely flooded them. Past two years, I rarely see those islands at all now. If anything, I have seen some high water marks in those areas that I have never seen before, usually just after big thunderstorms. Might be an adventure today! We got hammered with heavy rain yesterday.
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