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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    If you think about where we were 25 years ago, it is pretty impressive. I think the problem is that a model has built in biases. In other words, during the years that programming was written...it is only going to be as good as what we know then OR what is driving the weather then. If a new driver comes onto the scene, it might make a a particular version of modeling obsolete until the programing is corrected. I know there are things that are being discussed now that were rarely discussed when I first started doing this as a hobby. It is pretty crazy to think that heights over Indonesia impact weather here. So, I think some of this is just understanding the weather well enough to write programming for it. Those wx models are only as good as the physics and data being placed into them. And as far as I know, they don't adapt. Strong AI would adapt and "think." What can be simulated on modeling right now is mind boggling. Each little eddy and height fall can now be modeled across the globe. But what we aren't able to solve is how the Butterfly Effect changes things. Our understanding of the stratosphere(SSWs), wind current reversals(QBO), and the MJO will only serve to make modeling better. The tricky thing is what happens, for example, if a model is a bit to heavily dependent on the MJO and it ceases to be the driver? And that is partly what makes me suspicious of the MJO...if it is incorrectly modeling the MJO, it might we way off. OTH, it has been whipping the GFS/GEFS for about four weeks.
  2. Carvers Gap
    I think we are good out to about 8 days in terms of actually specific features, and even then it is tough at eight days. Actual weather patterns can be identified out to about 3-4 weeks, and four weeks is pushing it. Seasonal forecasting will be the Holy Grail of my lifetime. I have been pretty warm in my discussions since early December. I get excited like the rest when modeling throws us a nice run...but generally there have been few indices or modeling that has shown anything but a very warm pattern. I think most of us are here to find winter wx patterns, so we dig around even in this warm pattern and look for cold signals. That said, I am not sure I want to be around once we have strong AI, and it can predict seasonal forecasting to near exact metrics. If we have a computer that can do that, then we likely have other technology that we don't want around that is much smarter than humans. LOL. You know one thing I have considered and it may be banter worthy...there are places where cloud seeding takes place. I know for a fact that it takes place in the Mountain West. I have seen the machines that do it. I do wonder as that becomes more prominent, how that will change our weather patterns and if that is occurring now. Emptying the air of its moisture surely has downstream impacts.
  3. Carvers Gap
    What I am also saying is that it is very likely going to warm-up after January 12th for an extended amount of time. What I am trying to do is to question weather the duration being portrayed is correct. I have my doubts. My seasonal forecast ideas are in the summer thread around late June. I think they are actually fairly decent ideas and have covered a lot of what we are seeing now and also covered what could go help/hurt our winter chances. I did include the AMO in that post. That said, once the winter season begins I don't try to bend my micro forecast ideas around my macro seasonal ideas. That is a good way to be perpetually wrong. I usually leave the two as separate entities. I see too many good pro and hobby forecasters who won't embrace large scale atmospheric changes that occur (seemingly out of the blue) because they don't want their seasonal ideas to be wrong. Calling for a warm-up in January does counter my June ideas, but that is a good example of why it is important to keep seasonal ideas separate from micro stuff. Seasonal forecasting(and actually being right) is still in its early stages, because chaos wrecks havoc on even the best of forecasts. I can probably count on one hand the number of folks who have enough skill to hit seasonal forecasts in the "sometimes" category and they are the absolute best. The rest of us just have fun trying. As Mr. Bob has said before, each year is its own analog. I think that is important to remember as well. Weather forecasting is an inexact science as we control very few of the variables. But that is also what makes it fun...surprises still can and do occur even during this age of information.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Not at all regarding the AMO. Just saying we have 5-10 years before the AMO flips. We have completed about thirty years of a forty year pattern. What month and year that cycle actually flips is not something any model or any person can know for sure. Climate cycles are extraordinarily fickle. Essentially, we are trying to predict something out of chaos. Our weather models are quite good out to about 8 days now regarding specific features. They are also quite good at picking out pattern trends to about 3-4 weeks. The best we can do regarding the AMO is to look at past data and use it to forecast when the flip occurs. So the best crystal ball that we have is the climate record. The crystal ball that would predict when the AMO would flip with complete specificity is not in the shop, because we have never had it to begin with. Back to chaos, the one thing that can help is in fact "chaos." A pattern that looks locked into place is likely going to change. On a micro-scale, none of us want to be in the snow bullseye ten days out. Why? We know that is going to change. At a macro-scale, it is probably easier to say a warming trend is coming, but we can't predict the specifics because we don't have the technology to do that yet past 8 days. So, we can say a big-warm up is coming but still miss cold front embedded in a warm pattern.
  5. Carvers Gap
    The thing that looks wonky is seeing that high pressure sit in the same spot and barely move. It could be right and it also could be feedback. As evidence, the upcoming cold snap was completely missed on the EPS at first, then it had it, then it lost it, and now it is back. Not uncommon for LR modeling to miss something. The assumption that we have to be careful of is this...that all LR modeling is the gospel. It is not. A base warm pattern can and does have extreme shots of cold. The problem with LR modeling being in lock-step is that it causes group think. I don't think that happens on this forum, but it does occur. It is always best to analyze how modeling could be wrong if it verifies as not. So, the one thing that makes me continually suspicious of the LR is that features are almost standing in place, especially the big ridge near the Aleutians. However, features can hold in one place for long periods of time so it is not unprecedented as evidenced by the trough that tucked in over MT last winter and spring. But that is a really big feature to lock in. I do think it is a signal for an extended period of warmth, but don't think the stationary look is realistic. If that ridge kicks eastward just a hair (relative to global scale), the pattern is completely different.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Winters IMBY rarely have multiple great winters in a row...meaning lots of cold and snow. A great winter time frame would be like three out of five winters being good. But yes, a -AMO would correlate to better winters for decades at a time. I think we flipped positive around the late 80s. I noticed during the late 80s a significant trend towards warmer winters. Now, I grew up in the 70s and will forever be spoiled. That is my baseline so everything is warmer. I likely won't see anything like that again in my lifetime. It is tough to know when that index actually flips. Looks like 40-50 year increments are the norm. If the warm cycle began during the late 80s, then it would be over during the late 2020s. There are definite signs that the index is trending down with each season - meaning we have hit the apex of the cycle and are trending down. If one subscribes to Jeff's discussion about index trajectory(and I do), it could help us prior to that. If you google the decades that many remember as truly cold, those decades are often -AMO winters. I think the +AMO coupled with a warmer than norma Pacific is creating ample options for warm winters. It may very well be that the -AMO will counterbalance the Pacific and at least get us to what we remember as "normal" winters. All of that said, the northern Rockies(not this year), have been cold and snow for several winters of the 2010s...so there are places within the continental US doing quite well.
  7. Carvers Gap
    It is not uncommon to have stretches of bad winters IMBY. We had some lousy one in the 90s and even during the 80s. The QBO reversal is the one thing that could help us. Is it powerful enough to override the MJO, not sure about that. However, it should enhance blocking signals. Blocking during Nino winters is often seen during the second half of winter or even later winter. The NAO will often flip negative for a time during late January and February during El Nino winters. I have my doubts about that. The NAO was due for a flip after a very long stretch this year of being negative. I highly doubt it is done with its positive cycle yet. What we need is a stretch of 2-4 weeks of it being negative...even if the overall trend is positive. That can happen. It is also important to note that the NAO is infamous for how difficult it is to predict after d10. The -NAO probably saved us from truly record warmth during some of December when the Pacific was less than favorable. The problem with many of these analogs, is that some folks are using analogs from time frames were the AMO was negative. Those analogs don't work right now. But folks form analogs from the 70s and early to mid 80s into analog packages, and it makes the analog package too cold. Do I think we return to colder winters once the AMO flips? I strongly think that winters will be much colder relative to the 1990-2025. Do I think it will return to the the winters of the 1970s? Probably not, but better than now. When the AMO is negative it mirrors nearly perfectly our worst winter time frames. Do I think this winter is similar to last year? No. However, at this latitude one can get the same outcome by taking several different routes. It wants to rain in the subtropics. Same is true for snow in the northern latitudes. It wants to snow there, and there are many paths to take to a snowy pattern in places like Alaska. 2 seasons ago: La Nina and that is notable a warm signal here. Last winter: Atmosphere never coupled with the Nino pattern as evidenced by the SOI. The warm Pacific amped the jet, buckled it, and the SSW caused the polar vortex to be displaced into the trough forming out West. Also, had an active MJO. This winter: Decembers are supposed to be warm during El Ninos. Check. We have a cold shot coming in early January, then the warm-up. The reason I do not like El Nino winters is their habit for showing up late or sometimes not at all. Like pulling teeth. January is often a transitional month to cold during El Ninos. The reason many of us are concerned is that transition is not being modeled, and in fact, the opposite is being shown. Also, not that there is cold water off South America at the equator. That correlates strongly to a SER. One could make a pretty convincing argument that we are actually in a La Nada and those are generally not good winters IMBY. Also, the MJO region and IO are firing which is overwhelming a weak Nino signal. If there are two similarities to last winter, it would be the active MJO and an early season SSW(one split and another tightens up the vortex). However, we are achieving a warm pattern via 2-3 different means mainly due to our latitude. Our climatology at this elevation does not support winter upon winter of excellent snow. One could make a pretty convincing argument that we are actually in a La Nada and those are generally not good winters IMBY. Once the full suite of MJOs are in, I will try to swing back by...
  8. Carvers Gap
    Working on that post. No, Atlantic blocking help is not being consistently shown. With the positive AMO, the Atlantic will not be dependable until it flips. Probably several years before that pattern shifts. The +AMO has an excellent correlation to the current stretch of poor winters that we are having. I recommend reading PSU's discussion in the MA forum from yesterday. The analog years that match this pattern when rolled forward required an NAO for winter to continue. Those missing the NAO saw a hostile Pacific help. PSU has hard data to answer your question.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Just watched JB this AM...he makes a lot of good points. The warm water of NW Australia is causing the convection in the 4-6 regions to really be enhanced. So, every time a wave hits that region the convections goes nuts. So, basically we go 4, 5, and 6 which is warmth followed by a cold down as the convection leaves those areas. He did point out(and the individual MJO model members are not out yet on CPC) that the ECMWF has been correcting into 8 prior to crossing the COD into warm phases. If(and I don't think it is a certainty) the MJO regions fires, it will be a prolonged period of warmth. As I said earlier(not from JB), going to need the Atlantic to help. I just don't think the Pacific is going to do it.
  10. Carvers Gap
    All major ensembles show incredible warmth after d10(if one assumes the worst warmth is being muted...some cold runs in there making it look cooler) with an almost uncanny similarities at 500. If the cooler runs are eliminated from the ensemble, that is a very warm look. So, I am not going to belabor the point...that is near record warmth for days on end being shown. The RMM1/GEFS has caved to the ECMWF with the MJO which means that the American suite was wrong both in its LR forecast and with the MJO. Not a lot of sugar coating. That is an extreme warms signal showing up on the LR that would take some time to break down. I am not sure I am to the point where I buy what the EPS/GEFS/GEPS are selling, but those three in lock step have to be heard from. To me this is the September, October, November pattern repeating itself. Problem is, we don't really want one month of record temps followed by cold in March. I still think this pattern breaks...it is due. That said, if the MJO goes into phase 4 and crawls, the game is up. At this point, seems fairly obvious it is headed there, but for how long? So, I think a period of warmth is probable and likely record warmth for 7-10 days beginning around January 12th. What I am not sure about is the hp in the eastern Pacific just spinning ad nauseam. Something would inevitably kick that out of the way like we are seeing between the 6th-9th. Looks like a base "much above normal" pattern after d10 with shots of seasonal air. Like last year, the MJO is now threatening to go high amplitude and hold. I am just not sure I buy that. So, instead of buying into the "end of winter forecast," I think I am going to go with Jan 12th-22nd-ish is going to be a torch. Our one ray of hope is the Euro operational at d10 really did not look like it was heading in the direction of the ensemble. That is two runs that has happened. One last note, how many times have we seen modeling in lock-step only to be wrong? Often. However, there is good evidence behind the warm-up with the MJO. IMHO, we need the Atlantic to begin to cooperate as I think the Pacific is like lost for some time. More later...just getting up to speed. OTH, when models lock into warm patterns over the SE...they rarely break.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Wow, we were at Market Square around 4:30PM or so. We caught a play at the Tennessee Theater and then walked around.
  12. Carvers Gap
    If I was going to pull a rabbit out of a hat(cold wx pattern from the clutches of a warm one in the LR)...I would begin first by saying that the operationals are not overly in sync with their ensembles.
  13. Carvers Gap
    We actually broke our record high here. Looks like 73 was the high today which broke the record high from....wait for it....1954. Really stinks to be reliving that year. LOL.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Wurbus, I was in Knoxville today at the Tennessee Theater. Was incredible how warm it was. Literally, was like summer.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Lol. Yes, it was. LOL. Wow. @Blue Ridge
  16. Carvers Gap
    We are down to our last model now...the CFSv2 is still standing with cold. It handles the MJO much differently and is a total outlier. To paraphrase Star Wars...it is our only hope. The warm trend was a strong one today. If the MJO strolls through the warm phases(I still have serious doubts about that) as suggested by the ECMWF, spring will be here in a couple of weeks. I don't think that is true...but that is the implication. We will have stuff budding out shortly. Truly feels like a summer evening outside with it being 68F at 8:40PM at night.
  17. Carvers Gap
    68F at 8:40PM. Feels like June. As with September but on a smaller scale and duration...incredible warmth for this time of year.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Here is my lone wx nugget this AM...The CFSv2f flipped at the last minute for January on this morning's run. Take it with a grain of salt as it is often a flavor of the month type model. Have to watch its trends late. Might be a blip....might not. Worth keeping an eye on...The RMM1 MJO is less than favorable, but I still suspect that is not settled.
  19. Carvers Gap
    0z GEFS not there. It might be playing catch-up...not sure. Quick nugget for those that don't know, the Pivotal Wx site updates the ensemble for the GEFS about as quick as I can find it.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Agree on model trust...Just speculation, but if one really wants winter, have the PV split and that piece in Quebec dive into an eastern trough. Then we are cooking with gas.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Unless my eyes are fooling me, around 300 the PV at 500mb splits for a bit before roughly reconsolidating.
  22. Carvers Gap
    The CMC has a fantasy land storm barely right about d9.
  23. Carvers Gap
    I mean we have been looking at run after run after run of huge eastern ridges...not so much. Lots of red seemingly at high latitudes. As an operational it is no nailed anything down yet, but seems to be a fairly strong signal that high latitude blocking is at least "considering" a return. The AN heights over the pole would also signal a displaced TPV. Lots of moving parts, but glad to see the last several weeks of modeling get knocked off its spot. Has a slight November feel to modeling without going to overboard.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Where the heck did the ridge at 500 go on the 0z GFS?
  25. Carvers Gap
    Interestingly, the operational run of the 18z GFS reversed the heights over Alaska and the ensemble reversed the heights over Greenland. LOL. The 12z EPS completely reversed heights over AK from beginning to end. So, it may be that something is afoot at higher latitudes. Lots of flip flopping usually implies a shake-up, but we will see. If you can get your hands on the EPS mean...take a look at Alaska at 500. Impressive change. Other than that, lots of volatility after this cold shot during the second week of January.
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