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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    There are plenty of positives from modeling overnight. Again, we are look at the Feb5-10 time frame with potential a couple of more windows during February. Nobody is calling for wall-to-wall cold and snow. Just hunting a window for wintry weather. Be back in a bit. Temp trends not he Euro and EPS when compared to 12z are not bad on what I am looking at. They look cooler in the time frame mentioned.
  2. Carvers Gap
    0z CMC dumps the trough a bit further west, but still moves the trough eastward. The actual boundary stalls over the forum area. If true, cold air likely pushes south of that boundary. That is the overrunning scenario the GFS had earlier. Just need to make sure that we get on the right side of that boundary. So, looks like we have a couple of options presented so far at 0z. Front roars through all of the way to the GOM and a storm spawns on it or the front passage itself has moisture that switches over. OR the trough stalls and waves run along a front draped over the TN valley. Long way out there still as we are eight days out.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Looks like the 0z GFS is still on schedule with Feb 5th still moving forward in time for tbe cold front and trough at 500. Potential is there for snow to fall as that front passes. You all know the drill at this range. And it bears repeating, we are looking for a 4-5 day window where we might be able to steal a storm.
  4. Carvers Gap
    WWAs remain in effect for mountains counties as they received decent snowfall today. MRX with a great discussion for this weekend. 0z GFS with a great track but marginal temps at best. Probably still going to keep an eye on it... Past Thursday, we are still dealing with model uncertainty as there is a lot going on in the atmosphere. We`ve still got a northern and southern stream feature swinging across the Central U.S. at roughly the same time. The ECMWF still has the southern feature further south than the GFS. If this plays out, then we get caught in between the southern and northern stream which would mean little to no precip for our area over the weekend. The GFS continues to be further north and spreads precip in Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. If this is the case then the higher elevations would see some more light snowfall while valley locations see more rain. Model differences exist on Saturday night into Sunday as well with a clipper system potentially affecting our area. It`s too far out at this point to go into much detail other than both the GFS and ECMWF show a good bit of moisture with it. The problem is that the ECMWF is further north and doesn`t bring any precip into our area and the GFS does because its placement is further south. We will see how models handle this as we move forward. Models are signaling strong riding building on Monday. As of now, forecast highs are in the upper 50s to low 60s which would put us around 10 to 12 degrees above normal.
  5. Carvers Gap
    I also should have noted that the Euro Weeklies and CFSv2 imply that we will have a restocked Canada in terms of cold. I am a little gun shy as they have done that once recently. Both of those LR models have another trough amplification around Feb19-20. Take that with a huge grain of salt. Both models portray periodic intrusions of quite cold air into the East during February. May be right and may be wrong, but that is what is on modeling this evening.
  6. Carvers Gap
    But save that gif though, cause at some point sooner or later...we are going to need it!
  7. Carvers Gap
    They look better than Thursday. LOL. And the 12z EPS looks even better. Not saying it is going to be a cakewalk as I noted some phase 6 MJO tendencies mid month. But looks like we will have 2-3 windows during February. First window looks like Feb 5-10 roughly. Weeklies weren't exactly a fan of spring either - we all knew that was coming!
  8. Carvers Gap
    As @tnweathernutnoted earlier today, the cold behind that front is bitterly cold. Seeing some lower single digits after 240 - so take with a huge grain but shows the potential. That air mass, if it verified, would be the coldest of the season. Still a long ways to go, but interesting to look at. And the trough still seems to be on time. We knew we had trouble earlier this winter when fronts would get pushed back...As of now still Feb 5th.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Switching gears back to this weekend. I still think NE TN needs to keep an eye on the wx. The 18z GFS has a strong coastal low with decent snow in the mountains. It would not take much of a westward shift and a slightly stronger storm to change the narrative at TRI over the weekend. The open wave or weak slp has trended a good bit stronger at 18z. Just toggle back a few runs and look at how much stronger it is. Here is the zoomed in version:
  10. Carvers Gap
    One thing to note, troughs on Weeklies are notoriously not deep enough. They have correct deeper most of the time this winter. We just didn't have many troughs until mid Jan.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Ah sorry, I see...5 day increments on those gifs. One day, @Holston_River_Rambler, you will need bifocals like me and understand. The single day increments actually show the frontal passages. Everything on the gif is about five days late and washes out the strength of the troughs and fronts. But overall same idea. Here is Feb 6 at 850. And thanks for the gifs!
  12. Carvers Gap
    Man, that looks way different than what I am looking at.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Nah, man. The run didn't actually look that bad. Temps are normal(edit...excluding first four days roughly of Feb...I was looking at daily maps which average out about normal) and precip AN for February. Now, that doesn't mean much as they have been terrible...but seriously, not a bad run.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Interestingly, those weeklies don't look like the WxBell version of March. LOL. Heights are normal to below for 500 anomalies on it, excluding the first four days. February looks about right.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Digging through the Euro Weeklies. They are a bit washed out IMHO. I don't use 2m temps verbatim when looking at them, because they have a notorious warm bias. So, a little trick I have learned is to look at 850s. One can see fronts pass through with those. Keeping that in mind...First trough rolls through around the 5th. Warmth builds for a day or two and the next cold front rolls through. About every week we get a shot of cold for 2-3 days followed by an equivalent warm-up. Surface temps are basically average out as normal from Feb 5-28. Looks to me like the cold builds in the front range and presses eastward. That looks explains why modeling is bouncing around with the SER - i.e. Is the SER real, and if so, how strong after the 10th? Basically troughs plow through, the SER bounces back to varying degrees, and then the cold builds into the region again. Looks to me like cold is about to be injected periodically into an active STJ pattern. It is a progressive pattern that wiill depend on timing, but w AN precip/normal temps. Of note, Alaska is AN or normal after Feb 10th until almost the end of the run. Basically, it looks like February climatology. Might even have some sever wx mid-month. Not a sever guy, but if we go phase 6 during February and that gets hit by well BN temps...look out. One final note, just glancing at MJO....Overall, my guess would by moderate MJO phase 1and 2 and 3 during the first 10 days of Feb. Then it progress through low amplitude 4-5, a higher amplitude 6 from Feb 10-20. Then, it looks like 7, 1, and 2 fire during the last ten days. Convection west of the dateline is just going to be a pain the rest of the winter. The good thing is changing wavelengths will help. Honestly, it looks very much like the d10-15 of the EPS from this morning continued throughout the run. Really is a shame it didn't run from the afternoon run which had a stronger -NAO and centered the LR trough in the continent's mid section. There you go... a much too long diagnosis of a model run that is already behind its 12z run.
  16. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro: Trough still goes in the East. Has energy riding the Arctic front like the GFS. Might be a 3-6 hours slower, but with a stronger trough that digs more(that is why it is slower). What it is doing over Alaska looks new and might even be a random hiccup. The Euro does weird stuff sometimes that turns out to be true. So, I have learned over time not to discount oddities. However, unless it shows me something on subsequent runs...going to file that as a hiccup. And before folks think...oh no, here we go again. The hiccup is not really a problem by 10. That is a super, super cold look. Virtually all of NA is in the trough, and it really doesn't roll the western ridge forward like 0z. So, good run...but wonky as all get out.
  17. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro is much different(from its previous run) for the third straight run. This time it has BN heights in AK and has dampened the eastern Pacific trough. Not really a break in continuity, but more like very little continuity. Trough is still there, but the AK BN heights are going to create problems. Can't find another model doing that right now, even its previous run. Model mayhem continues.
  18. Carvers Gap
    The CMC at 12z is a great example of how the angle of that front on the leading edge of the trough makes a big difference. It doesn't dig quite as much and everything slides OTS. Ironically, we probably need a little of the Euro "digging into the Southwest" mojo if we want to see an overrunning event.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Looks an awful lot like what led to the November pattern....this entire step-down the past few weeks feels like the October(January style) that led to November. The extreme stuff broke shortly after mid month, then a cool down, warmed up, then another cool down, etc. Also, the changing wave lengths likely won't hurt either. We will see where it heads, but the similarities are interesting.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, it is cold up there. Will be interesting to see if that verifies. The 500 pattern as @tnweathernut mentions would support that type of cold. However, we had that forecast I think(at LR) last week and Canada ended up with +30 to +40 departures from normal. LOL. The good thing about this run is the actual initial front is inside of d10. Will come into focus here over the next 3-4 days.
  21. Carvers Gap
    I think the 12z GFS at least shows why we have been watching this timeframe for seemingly weeks. Get cold air into the pattern with an STJ and the 12z GFS is a potential option. There was an additional wave which I think makes four along that front which hugs the coast. Long way out there, but something to track for now.
  22. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS still on time with a strong cold front and ensuing trough around Feb 5th. Something to watch, as noted in the previous thread, is whether energy will make a run along the incoming front. In this case there were 3 waves of precip long the front. First was rain and the last was snow as the Arctic front passes. We have scored on those during the past decade, usually 2-4" type snow events. Obviously at this range, a lot can and will change. Things to monitor will be whether the cold actually modifies as the event nears or will it maintain that strong frontal passage. Another thing to watch will be the angle of the front. If it sort of gets a positive lean to it, that raised the likelihood of something riding the front, especially if the tail is slow to move along in Texas. In other words, we want it to drape across the SE as a frontal boundary. Will be interesting to see where the rest of the run leads. As for this weekend's look, still not sure I buy the suppressed look but certainly looks that way as of right now. The energy that digs in behind it would likely induce snow shower activity.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Thanks for the new thread, @John1122. Looks like this is pinned to the top, so I will place afternoon ensemble discussion here.
  24. Carvers Gap
    One can get a pretty good idea of the places most at risk for flooding with this graphic. This is a 30-day total precip map for the forum region.
  25. Carvers Gap
    River systems controlled by dams should likely be OK initially as many of the lakes are already at low pool and can handle the influx. That said, probably the bigger concern would be urban streams and rivers not controlled by dams. We haven't had much flooding up here(NE TN) yet. The ground is fairly saturated, so thunderstorms training over one area would be a big concern. Fortunately, only the tops of the eastern mountains have snow and not a lot. If there was 12-18" of snowpack, we would be in serious trouble on this side of the valley. You all in the mid-state seem to have had more rains just based on observations in this forum. The far eastern valley has a little wiggle room but not much.
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