Jump to content

Carvers Gap

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    15,647

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    See, that is what is so frustrating with the ensembles. They just stop the entire hemispheric pattern around Jan 10th. The preceding pattern has not been one that is nearly stationary for the entire Western Hemisphere. I think the key is to get that western displaced easter Pac ridge...budged eastward to where its influence is such that cold is at least forced down the front range. I can just about tell if the pattern is going to be seasonal or a torch based on those little vortices spinning south out of Alaska. If there is room between the eastern Pac ridge and the coast, they go there and build a monster ridge here. If they get pushed across the mountains, trough here. Sounds crazy after watching a locked pattern for several weeks, but the pushing back of the eastern ridge in time is probably depending on something as razor sharp as that.
  2. Carvers Gap
    So, on this run we fight off the ridge out to 300...It is the GFS for sure, but very good run in terms of how important it is to have the cold cross into the front range. It will the spread east. If it cuts west it digs that pocket trough out West. Only need that EPO ridge nudged eastward about 300 miles from 18z and it forced a second shot eastward.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Quickly reverts back to an eastern ridge by 270...but that is an extra cold shot. Also would push back the warm-up by a day to the 12th...later than that due to the cold that was discharged. 500 is AN...surface is not yet, but will
  4. Carvers Gap
    Eastern ridge replaced with a shallow trough at 258.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Probably going to still get a similar outcome as previous runs, but it does have another cold front at 240 and a piece of the PV that broke off and is head into the upper end of the trough in Canada.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, much different run...similar to 18z Monday.
  7. Carvers Gap
    0z GFS has moved the EPO ridge at 198 to the east.
  8. Carvers Gap
    This is what I don't buy. Go to Tropical Tidbits. Go to the North Pole view of the 12z GEFS. Switch to 500 heights anomaly. Loop it. See all of the global wave activity until just under d10. Then it is like the brakes are put on the entire northern hemispheric system. It literally freezes. Just does not look realistic. Is it model feedback or do we see the entire hemispheric pattern lock-up?
  9. Carvers Gap
    What I can't tell is if they are just backing-off what would have been an extreme pattern or if there are some colder solutions working in. I am really pulling for a pattern flip just so some of the new folks can see one go down. Unlikely...but weren't they all when it was darkest?
  10. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS control drops an all out trough into the middle third of the country and is heading east at the end of the run. The GFS has done something like this for three straight runs. Makes me think we are going there is more potential for variability than the ensembles project in the LR. It is one of these deals that JB mentioned in his video a few days ago. He state rarely does a cold air mass go straight down the spine of the Rockies. As it heads south it usually cuts west or east of the mountain chain. When you watch these small vortices drop out of AK, about 60% of the time they cut west. But if one cuts east of the Rockies, it spread eastward and deepens the trough. Something to watch. Probably a slam dunk warm wx pattern...but once in a blue moon, a player misses a dunk.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Yeah. You know it was crazy how dry it got IMBY during September. My yard still has places that are just cooked. Other than that, reasonably good rains. A lot of my fall greens are still alive...kale, turnips, Brussel sprouts, lettuce, and mustard. They were planted in extreme heat, have been snowed on twice, have seen the teens for temps, and 90s. Hardy plants!
  12. Carvers Gap
    Something I have been watching...the forecast trends at 500 on TropicalTidbits. Pretty interesting. MJO looks less than favorable today(probably shouldn't us the real adjective). The Euro does loop back into the COD after warm phases and then it maybe it tries to go back again? LOL!!! Anyway, if you want some hope...the 12z GFS is serving it up.
  13. Carvers Gap
    I know right. A warming trend in relation to temps that are already record highs! If there is ever a time for the Euro/EPS to be wrong...about right now would be good timing!
  14. Carvers Gap
    0z GEFS holds solid compared to previous runs. No surprise...
  15. Carvers Gap
    Well, that is a different run from the 0z GFS...we can live with that out to 312. A cooler (than the previous day) overnight run? Wat?
  16. Carvers Gap
    Check that. January 4-11 looks like the window..
  17. Carvers Gap
    And so to start(just completely ignoring the torch after), looks like the 18z GFS shows a chance for winter weather on Jan 9th and/or 11th. Looks to me like that window is decent relative to what precedes or follows it.
  18. Carvers Gap
    And FTR, there are two record lows from 1955 in February and one for March. Oh, why not!
  19. Carvers Gap
    After beating the warm drum for most of the month, the pinnacle of that warmth(so far) was a whopping and almost mind boggling +26F AN yesterday. If one looks at modeling, really no end in sight. Model are locked-in to a rather anomalous pattern after January 10th which could potentially see a number of record highs threatened or broken which includes the all-time record high of 79 for January at TRI. The pattern being depicted is probably close to the warmest ridge I have seen modeled regarding event duration and intensity during recent winters. One or two day quick hitters are not uncommon. However, the pattern between Jan10-20 is one that will feature early summer time temps if they verify. I think at the very least a period of 7-10 days of incredible warmth is probable between January 11-21. If the weeklies are correct, we may get a brief correction to AN(instead of much AN) near the end of January. And if the Weeklies are correct, a sustained winter pattern looks improbable at any point. Do I think it is correct? I am 50/50 on that prospect. I see nothing on modeling or on any indices that says anything but incredible warmth for the first 2/3 of January at least, excluding the January 4-11 period(edit) during the second week of January. AO: warm NAO: warm PNA: warm PDO: warm MJO: very warm AMO: warm SOI: warm It is now likely that DJF will finish AN(if not in record territory) as the first half of winter will be virtually impossible to erase such AN temps. Until the fourth week of January, I think chances are exceedingly slim. I hope we look back on this post next year and remark how huge of a pattern flip we had...but I am not holding my breath. At this point, I am assuming the base pattern is AN to much AN. And at this point, I am just going to be hunting brief cold downs and potential snow events attached to those. So, if you think I am promoting a cold pattern...I am not. I am just tired of talking about warmth. Other than November, this pattern has been a torch since early September. Just going to try to find some cold in otherwise very warm pattern...first chance is next week. So lack of upcoming discussion(about warmth) by me doesn't mean it isn't going to be warm. Increased discussion about a particular even shouldn't be interpreted as cold coming on a grand scale. And I will end with this...I just have a hard time believing a pattern move quite progressively(from now until January 10th) and then seeing the atmospheric pattern "freeze" ad nauseam in the northern hemisphere. Looks like a feedback problem, but at this point I have very few ideas which counter the upcoming warmth. The only nugget is HM is talking about a positive AAM. That could dislodge that Pacific ridge. Other than that...not too many signs pointing to sustained winter weather prior to January 20th. Not going to say we have a fab February either as the CFS hints at. But in reality, February and late January might be our only hope for winter events.
  20. Carvers Gap
    TRI is now +5.3 virtually guaranteeing another AN JFM as those departures are only going to get worse for the winter season. Yesterday's high of 74 was part of a day which featured temps +26F above normal!!!!! The record high for all of January is 79. Will TRI approach that in the coming weeks? I think so.
  21. Carvers Gap
    I am just really suspicious d10-15 seeing a feature that is holding in place like that high does in the Pacific. Pretty rare to see a feature not get jostled around some. I could be wrong, but that just doesn't look realistic. It may very well be correct or at least the base pattern might be a hp in that spot. But about the only think I have eve seen just sit and spin there is a GOA vortex - not a high. But man, it is locked in like a heat seeking missile on the ensembles.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Just now read this. Cool stuff.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Looking at the 12z GEFS/GFS model suite. Warm, very warm. Minus a few runs, that has been the message on modeling since late November. This winter reminds me of those winters in the 90s where it got warm and never looked back - or it just was a non-winter. Thankfully, it is not the 90s...but it still looks warm. There are some positives. The GFS is a bit more variable, but it has gotten thoroughly trounced during December by the Euro. The nearly stationary features on the ensembles it counter-inuitive. I have a difficult time believing that lasts for more than 4-5 days without things shaking loose. Again, the one thing we need is a -NAO which there is no sign of that. These massively warm temps are IMHO merely a continuation of the September and October pattern that featured very warm temps. November was cold because the changing wavelengths would not allow the early fall pattern to continue. Indeed many, including me, saw November as a pattern change...indeed, it was IMHO only a relaxation of a mega-ridge in the East. And worst case, as we get into February the same thing should happen again - meaning a pattern shake-up(not saying extreme cold). Don't really have any choice but to be patient and hope maybe we can steal an event during the second week of January. I do hold out some hope that the cold snap next week might shake the pattern up to the point that modeling is missing things. I have definitely been in cold patterns where a brief warm-up was modeled only to see that warm-up(once it arrives) lock-in and not leave. I hold out minimal hope that happens this time - only the warm being replaced by cold instead. That said, the analog of 1954 lives on as we broke a record from 1954 yesterday. 1954 was warm in both January and February as well against its norms(not the new norms).
  24. Carvers Gap
    I think the abnormally warm Pacific is throwing things way off. I am not sure how much analogs/climatology is factored into each model. However, if analog packages are outdated, would make sense that modeling might be struggling. The one model that I feel has regressed is the Euro Weeklies. They rarely model anything cold outside of about three weeks. I think when a pattern is stable, modeling can be accurate. November, being a shoulder month, made the EPS looks silly. Now, that we are in a ridge/West and trough/East pattern...it is very accurate. However, big caveat, it has trouble seeing pattern flips. Meteorology prior to computer modeling was very inaccurate, even under three days. It is pretty rare to get a big snowstorm that shows up under three days on a forecast now. I think one thing that computer modeling is doing right now is saving lives during severe events and during tropical events. Those used to take a lot of lives. We are now able to get people shelter or just out of the way. So computer modeling has had very tangible and helpful results. Like anything else, it has its limitations. To me the best thing I have ever seen a computer model do was the 2018 polar vortex split that the GFS modeled from 15 days out.
  25. Carvers Gap
    A really good example of something that was not modeled was the extreme solar min that we are experiencing. A scale type model? That is a pretty interesting idea. But I will say the EPS has been very accurate when it comes to December - not so much for November (maybe because it always warm?). Anyway, good discussion. Just got in from running...in shorts and a t-shirt during late December! LOL.
×
×
  • Create New...