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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    I think what we have to hope for is that is gets beat-up enough that it won't be as consolidated as it was during January. We just need it to not be wrapped-up so tight. I probably should have placed this in my "things to watch" list. Good find.
  2. Carvers Gap
    So, I think there are still two camps. Trough digs into the West or low gets cut-off in the West and the trough comes East. Great arguments for both, but at least there are two camps and not the one crappy camp. The 0z EPS doubled-down on the eastern trough never leaving after the 5th. Glad to have it in our corner as it generally scores the best. The 0z GEPS lends it some support but later. The 0z CMC cuts off the low. The 6z Euro operational does so, but not as much as 12z yesterday. 0z GEFS is western trough. The GEFS has been awful of late, but I think we still need it before feeling better about trends. @jaxjagman's share about the MJO definitely should sober-up even the most diehard snow lovers in the crowd - me being one of those. So some things to really watch: 1. The EPO ridge. It was very strong on the Euro operational and on the EPS. It does show some retrogression into the Aleutians on the EPS but is also strong on it. 2. Does the EPS teleconnect well? Sort of. Sort of not. Europe cools which is a good sign and that fits with the eastern US being cool. Aleutian highs don't exactly scream cold in the eastern US. There is sort of a weak weak low east of Hawaii. Heights do build into most of Alaska which teleconnects well to cold in the East. 3. The MJO. Have to think the MJO looks worse on the GEFS when compared to other models. The only think I can think that is driving the EPS is that the cold simply is so strong that it just wins the day. 4. Source region for cold. How strong is it? Source regions have not been terrible this winter. Fairbanks, Alaska, just logged a really cold January according to Joe D'Aleo. We just haven't had a mechanism to get it here. 5. Changing wavelengths. I would guess that the shorter wavelengths would make a big, western trough less likely. Granted, the EPS is actually longer wavelengths. LOL. 6. Does the low cutoff in the Southwest? As @PowellVolznoted the Euro has a tendency to hold energy in the Southwest too much. Right now, it seems to do it the least. Seems like the GFS/GEFS combo are having more troubles or they are scoring a coup. So we are probably stuck with two ironies here. Either the Euro solved the Southwest cut-off first or the GFS scores a coup. Not sure which horse to bet on there. 7. AO region in Canada. That might be the one of the main differences in the GEFS and EPS. The EPS raises heights in that region Final thoughts: As many have suspected, that low in the Southwest holds the key after Feb 10th along with where the EPO ridge is. As noted last night, there is a lot of spread just after the trough comes through next week, but a good chunk of February probably rests on what happens in about a 24-48 hour timeframe in the Southwest and whether it cuts off. Time will be at a premium today for me and tomorrow. Busy times. As for 12z...I am not holding my breath, but am also hopeful.
  3. Carvers Gap
    LOL. That is crazy. We want their trough. They want our ridge.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Oh yeah. On top of that the West Coast has been a mess on ensembles for several days after Feb 10 with some solutions that have been head scratchers. We have overcome poor MJO phases in prior winters, but we have to have a lot of cold in the pattern to do it.
  5. Carvers Gap
    I think the Euro control shows one option. If the low truly cuts off in the Southwest...that is a plus. That would mean the main trough could roll into the East. But is it right? Anyone claiming certainty this winter will be humbled quickly. The GEFS at 18z shows another, less wintry option. Lots of great discussions on this forum about the pattern in November repeating itself during winter. Would be neat to see that idea bear some fruit.
  6. Carvers Gap
    It they all showed something like that. Maybe. The spread on modeling after the 10th is massive. Trend is to diminish the western trough on the GEPS/EPS...but the MJO is a major problem. While the GEFS has been woefully inaccurates, prob going to need to see it jump on board. I have been out of pocket much of the afternoon. I will dig through the emsembles this evening if I get a chance. Before I get too invested, I am going to need that run of the EPS ensemble backed up by several runs. My guess is that things are going to keep bouncing around. This has been a one step forward, two steps back kind of winter. I am ready for two steps forward abd one step back.
  7. Carvers Gap
    One last nugget until later. The EPS control is an eastern trough from Feb 5 to the end of the run with zero western trough. It just reloads with one cold shot after another. Everyone knows the rules...huge grain of salt as reversals can always be reversed.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Well...shall we talk about the disappearing eastern ridge on the EPS? LOL. The 12z Euro operational has no western trough - zip. It has a cut-off and that is it. It ain't great, but the trough in the West does not hold. The 12z EPS is much different for the better. Have a project going on this afternoon. Maybe I need to do that more often. The SER is over TN for no more than 72 hours. EPS backs up the operational in that it cuts of a low in the Southwest. The "parent" trough moves east and leaves it. The cut-off tries to form a new trough which is promptly kicked into the middle of the country and eventually eastward by the -EPO. Not sure any of that jives with the MJO, but those are pretty massive improvements at 500. One could make a case now that the trough never holds in the West just based on that run(there are reasons it could be there in reality...mainly the MJO). The SER on that run of the EPS is literally just rolled out. That run is a continuation of the trend to cut-off the low in the Southwest, and that changes everything downstream. Nice run of the 12z Euro which definitely puts E TN in the game for snow with the third wave. Nice look. In a hurry. Feel free to discuss. Nice improvements across the board on the Euro. Will they continue? Who knows. LOL. For those new to the board, @nrgjeff with a great post above. Just another reason we have a great subforum and why I will be pulling for the Chiefs on Sunday. That is all from me until later. Have a great weekend, everyone!
  9. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS is fairly strung out. Jumps on the second wave of energy. Third wave is there but gets tamped out. Anyway, if you look at the mslp 6rh precip map on TT...at 162 that is a better organized system with a comma shape. Maybe a bit more organized than 6z? Now my day gets busier. Hopefully will be able to check back.
  10. Carvers Gap
    While we are killing time waiting for the next set of model runs. Check out Horse Shoe Farms in Hendersonville, NC, just over the mountain from the E TN folks. https://www.resortcams.com/webcams/horse-shoe-farm/
  11. Carvers Gap
    This is what I was talking about earlier regarding the pattern after Feb 10th. The graphic below is 276 of the 0z EPS. If I didn't already know the MJO forecast, I would say there has a chance to cut-off that energy and roll that trough eastward into Canada. I think the endgame is still likely ridging in the SE. However, it would likely mean the trough wouldn't dig into the West, just would spin and eventually come out as a storm. There is also a big difference between a trough digging in the West and one that is in southern Canada pressing. See my pattern pattern discussion graphic yesterday - the one with arrows. It does dig into the West after this image, but the trend has been for more of a cut-off. That would change the downstream pattern long term. The 0z EPS is quite different from the Weeklies at this time frame. So there remains the possibility that is actually a cutoff. Models have been bouncing around between this look for several days. Some really dig the trough into the West and some leave it there for just a matter of days. The Euro operational actually cuts of that low. Still a ridge down stream, but that changes the game some. As for the 0z Euro, again if I lived in west Tennessee, I would be watching that third wave of low pressure. Granted, waiting on a third wave is dicy. But the Euro slp placement would likely be some winter there. As evidence of low placement, many of us talked about the potential for winter weather this weekend just on slp placement alone. Western North Carolina has heavy snow as we speak. SLP placement matters regarding snow many times. It is as important as temp profiles. It is worth a reminder, many of us are hunting windows for winter weather. I think we understand that a sustained, cold pattern is highly unlikely. It has been noted multiple times. Most of us are here to track winter storms during winter. We know at this latitude that it does not want to snow about 98% of the time. It would be like hunting a warm pattern in Alaska during mid-winter. It happens, just not often. Most of us are trying to see what the potential is for a pattern or window in terms of winter weather. We all know the default is rain, especially in a base-warm pattern like this winter. If you don't think I can go warm, go back to my December posts. Right now, just looking at patterns and enjoying looking at each model run to see if we have a chance or two. We only have about a month left, so going to enjoy working through interesting model runs. We will hit a get stretch of winter again, though I am not convinced it is this winter or even the next winter. Feel free to post ideas that are to the contrary. That is what makes it fun - just don't make things personal. It is just weather.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Would not surprise me at all, Powell. That SPV is getting kicked around...if it splits we could see a March 2018 redux. Even if is splits today, with the lag it might not impact the troposphere until after mid-month. The timing would be very similar to 2018 in that regard. Hopefully it just winds down like a top vs splitting in early Feb.
  13. Carvers Gap
    And we also have some great meteorologists on our forum who chime in as well. Again, welcome aboard. Maybe we will eventually have something to track. If not, severe season is up next.
  14. Carvers Gap
    I think we will survive. LOL. And welcome to the forum. During winter most folks are usually looking for snowy and wintry patterns. So that drives the forum during winter and is actually what started it. Now, we have folks that follow the weather year round. We do severe wx, ENSO, summer wx patterns etc. But yeah, it is warm and the first four days of Feb are going to be warmer likely.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Also, the 0z Euro has two storm opportunities. It manages to get snow into west TN with that third wave again. It also has a new slider w snow for NE TN and one last true cold shot at the end. We will see if that holds. A little bit of a different look, so take with a huge grain.
  16. Carvers Gap
    I had this fired up and ready post yesterday, but thought...nah. On some ensemble runs, that looks a lot like a cut-off low. Now, the result downstream might still be the same as the trough might pull up into Canada. But IMHO, for that EPS run, that looks mored like a cut-off than a trough.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Hold down the fort tomorrow. Busy day on my end of things. Will check back if if I can...just didn't want you all to think I was bailing. Should be back some over the weekend and definitely by early next week.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Last comment on the 18z GFS, as long as it has the "Vancouver to Boise to LA to the Pacific to Baja 500 special" beginning at 200...I just can believe it. CMC had the same deal. The Euro was a much more believable evolution.
  19. Carvers Gap
    I do agree that Feb finishes above normal...The first four days of that month will make it very difficult to have any other solution.
  20. Carvers Gap
    I am game.
  21. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS is pretty much perfect in terms of track. Snow falls in middle TN. Give me that track AND a storm of that intensity and I am good - no open wave or weak sauce storms. That is a Miller A and a textbook one. 850s crashing into the back of the storm. It could be rain, but that is a great track. Temps are falling into the 30s as it passes. If it wasn't this winter, I would be pretty excited about that. Really a beautiful look.
  22. Carvers Gap
    First thing on the Weeklies. The PV at 500(essentially the TPV) is very consolidated during the last 2.5 weeks of Feb. Then, it gets disrupted by seasonal wavelengths during Feb. The question, I have...Is that right? The 12z Euro operational basically splits the SPV by d10 or at least really disrupts it. The American model brings the PV back together. Do we believe they are correct? My hunch is that the cold sets up over Hudson Bay. I can't decide if I believe the tailing trough holds in the West for that long. It could, but the PV forecast will have to be correct and we must assume the cold won't push. I will look at the MJO regions later tonight. I will say, I feel like the Monday EPS gave us a pretty good heads-up to the mid-month warm-up with its MJO look. Anyway, last I will say and it is a LONG shot, but we have had some big snowstorms during phases 4-5 I think. @John1122would know. Again, a long shot but the MJO I "think" loses some of its hold during late winter. Someone, feel free to correct that. But yeah, warm look by the Weeklies. But we trust the Weeklies to be right? Nah, just when they are warm. LOL. I normally don't punt a month, so I will hold out a bit. But if we continue the trends of past winters, March could have some chances or it could be terrible - true diplomacy right there.
  23. Carvers Gap
    It's because your name is spelled wrong in the panic room! LOL. You all messed that up. Anyway, that is a pretty washed out look. I will dig a bit deeper. That run may be right, but it looked like a bunch of feedback. We have found multiple ways to warm anomalies this winter. Patterns have varied, but the result has not. Also, very important to remember that the Weeklies don't do well during shoulder season. But yeah, a step back for sure. Bout the time we are all ready for spring, you know it is going to be cold. Book it! Just so the rest of you know I am realistic. I put my seed order in two weeks ago for the garden. The seeds for this year's garden are already on my counter! We will keep hunting snowstorms though. I won't be surprised to see ensembles break the other way and offer a couple of more 2-3 windows during Feb though it doesn't look good now. They are still stuck between two camps. I do think the base warm pattern continues with troughs rolling through. Looks like next week will be our best chance for a while. Hopefully somebody will score with it. And also, thanks for putting that together. Lastly, I think what is probably going on is the MJO this AM is that the EPS showed some signs of heading into four on one of its variations. The recent BOMM is COD all the way. So, if we want to see some changes need to see an SSW or the MJO go into the COD. Rally cap time for sure.
  24. Carvers Gap
    As noted earlier this week, the middle of February favors warm phases of the MJO and a trough in the West - particularly the middle ten days. The first four days will be warm as well. Will be interesting to see the Weeklies. I would like to see how they go from those maps into weeks 3 and 4.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Have we ever left it? My yard hasn't dried out since the mini-drought last fall. LOL. Rain has been a constant.
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