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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    AK vortex seems legit. However, seeing some signs of a trough going into the eastern US later this month. Need to really watch the MJO next few days. If it heads across the COD towards eight, might signal another trough. Jax has that noted above. Would be interesting to see a trough show up about the time the Alaska vortex gets dislodged. Most ensembles are hinting at a trough around the 24th in the East in addition to the 14th. Looks like a cold air intrusion about every ten days. At any right, mowed my yard today and started getting the garden ready. Went ahead and worked on one of our chimneys today that had been showing some signs of leaking. Wasn't planning on that, but sometimes things show up unexpectedly. I mowed the yard, because I had to take the mower out to get the ladder for the roof. LOL. Figured if I had it out, might as well just mow.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Just sifting through some of the MJO plots on the CPC site, one trend I notice...most of those MJO members end up with trajectories pointing at cold phases. Something to watch. I wonder if the GFS and CMC have caught that trend early and are maybe ahead of the game a bit. Will be interesting to see if the 12z Euro will eventually break down the eastern ridge like it did at 0z. Would be nice to have only 100 hours of a SER vs 10 days. Seems to me that the Southwest eternal cut-off may well be a partial error. If so, makes sense for the trough to get kicked eastward periodically with a western ridge popping from time to time as it has to fight a potentially low amplitude MJO.
  3. Carvers Gap
    I am hoping that changing wavelengths will spare us further events like that. Looks like we may well have one more rainy system this week though. This weather pattern probably is a wild one. Flood warnings and WWAs existing at the same time in the same region is an active pattern. LOL. Good call on the weekend snow, BTW.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Not exactly high amplitude, eh? What is weird the GFS and CMC at 12z(and for many runs prior) appear to show a pattern that has less influence by the MJO as evidenced by the SER be less strong and cold fronts showing some ability to push eastward beginning around hour 120. And then where is the MJO headed....trajectory is towards cold phases? I have said for a week or so that this pattern after the 10th had not looked modeled correctly. That cold front on the 14th makes me even more suspicious. It is almost like the November cold pattern is battling the MJO. However, the weaker that MJO gets...the stronger the November pattern gets. Finally, I think the changing wavelengths are currently giving models fits and about to get worse. Not saying this is the case this time around, but when wavelengths change...storms seems to be embedded in those changes.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Will wait for the ECMF MJO to update as well and then add some further comments. It either needs to be at low amplitude or hustling out of 5/6 into 7 or COD. Right now, we will take the COD. And to further illustrate that the MJO is a great tool and is driving the NA pattern, but it can have its hiccups...Chattanooga just received 3-4" of snow during phase 5 of the MJO at low amplitude.
  6. Carvers Gap
    It is the EPS vs all comers this morning including its own operational. The operational finally has the cold front on the 14th. Want to see just how bad the Euro bias is in the Southwest. Go to Tropical Tidbits and select hour 120 from the 0z Euro op run this am. Then, select the 500 heights anomaly and North America view. Then, click previous runs. Goes from a trough stuck in the West to a cold front in the East w/ twenty to forty degree BN departures at times over the TN and Ohio River valleys instead of a massive SER. Still looks like a cutter that precedes that cold, but as we saw this week a trough with cold air during this active pattern can produce. Right now looks bone dry after it rolls through, but who knows. And let's be clear, it is not just the Euro that had the problem with the SW trough, the GFS had it as well but corrected quicker. For sure, the MJO is lousy...but February is a month where pretty much everything has to be watched if cold manages to get into the pattern - especially with this really active pattern in terms of precip. BTW, I take the EPS against all comers....but it is worthy of note that the 0z Euro, 6z GFS, and 0z CMC don't seem to be huge fans of the SER through 240. I feel like a broken record, but I think modeling has been fooling around with that Southwest cut-off and the actual outcome is different than a cut-off sitting there for 16 days(some hyperbole intended) and just spinning. I think what we will see is what we saw this past week. We see warmth build, but a trough manages to make it eastward. Might even see 2-3 more of those before the month ends, beginning with the time frame of the 14th.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Been up on the Plateau for a couple of days and am home now finally. Rolled through right after the snow finished up - beautiful sight. Haven't been able really dig into modeling much. With two advisory level events for the window of Feb 5-10, bout all we could have asked for in a base warm pattern. Very happy for our folks who have received snow this week. Still a lot of uncertainty moving forward with Feb 14th having a cool or cold front. Will continue to monitor the 14th timeframe for an outside chance. Again, still not convinced modeling has the upcoming pattern nailed down. Will try to post tomorrow. But what a fun day following all of those posts by many who have waited patiently for snow for several years.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Cause you know I am going to be driving the family van down from the Plateau tomorrow around 18z...so we know this is going to verify. LOL.
  9. Carvers Gap
    One last thing in the LR and I will try to keep from cluttering the thread with LR posts since we have something tomorrow to track tomorrow, @holston the GFS has an Aleutian pattern that has low after low in that area....just one right after another. Also, definitely fun tracking stuff that pops back up in the short range.
  10. Carvers Gap
    When is that moving in tomorrow? Would be awesome for the SE TN folks to finally have something to track. Been truly rough sledding there.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I had quit watching that system closely because it had weakened so much. There are some decent lollipops on those maps. Those little systems are fun to track. .
  12. Carvers Gap
    Good call, 3K NAM looks decent in those areas.
  13. Carvers Gap
    But I think we can say this...very active precip pattern with potential for cold fronts during the 10th-20th which is far better than I expected earlier in the week.
  14. Carvers Gap
    So, the CMC and GFS at 12z have a similar setup: big highs that are pressing south and east and a gradient type storm late next week. IMHO, gradient storms can be super difficult to find where the snow line sets-up. Some years, those gradient storms are further south than depicted. Have seen several I though twould hammer MBY in years past, and they went to the GC. Seems this year they might verify north of modeling at this range due to modeling cold bias. So, we want to see that trend southward and then come back IMHO. But again, tricky to work out.
  15. Carvers Gap
    I understood and agree.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I think the Euro buried the current trough in the Southwest on one or two runs and never ejected it. In reality...it did dig, but it came on out. These runs where they dig, sit/spin, and dig a western trough are a bit suspicious. Again, the MJO does call for a SER and troughing in the West. Originally, we thought this would be a more progressive pattern with the cold pressing East at times. It may be that we are just in a base warm pattern where the cold presses at times vs a total shut-out pattern. Not sure.
  17. Carvers Gap
    CMC has a similar set-up at 12z around 156 with a similarly strong high. I think what is happening is that as we get closer to verification those cutoff lows are not just sitting there and digging...they are kicking out. Might be that we are going to have to watch for that. Now, the trough should dig into the West given the MJO...but right now I am suspicious of any low just spinning in the Southwest.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Definitely something afoot... Thing is the GFS and CMC may have potentially sniffed out a cold front around the 14th that the Euro missed and a cool front around the 12th. . After that, who knows...I think there is a really tendency for models to bury these cutoff and it is screwing up the run at that point. My guess is those cut offs either move east or get completely cut-off under a ridge. I am wondering if the changing wavelengths(as we approach spring) are causing havoc as well? But what looked like a really warm period between the 10th and 20th may at least have some things of passing interest. But again, sometimes those cutoffs are legit. But to me, looks like way too many cut-offs and that is likely feedback. OTH, keep sticking cut-offs in the Southwest and they are going to eventually head eastward.
  19. Carvers Gap
    1035-1039 hp riding over the top of a low running through the GC states. Hard not to like that look. Definitely a chance that jogs north and the cold verifies in KY or the Ohio River Valley, but verbatim....good look on that run.
  20. Carvers Gap
    All GFS runs for the rest of the winter have an assumed TIFWIW caveat and a yes we know caveat. But the 12z GFS has a snowstorm at 156.
  21. Carvers Gap
    To tag onto Holston's post above and to illustrate the strength of this trough that is passing through...here is the advisory/warning product map for the United States this morning. Winter weather advisories stretch from NE MS through middle/ west TN at lower elevations w higher elevation products issued for the Plateau an eastern mountains. Flooding was experienced in many areas which was then followed by light snow accumulations. This morning snow was was falling in Kingsport while simultaneously we were experiencing some of the worst urban flooding in recent memory. The flooding and winter threats were discussed extensively for several days on this forum in specificity by many. Again, a great job by everyone.
  22. Carvers Gap
    This is why I don't go anywhere without the EPS. When we started talking about the trough this weekend, it was ~15 days ago. IMHO, pretty good work by this forum working through the pros and cons to the look. This is Holston's EPS loop from 12z on January 23rd... Nailing a trough placement from 15 days out is impressive. It may have a cold bias due to the anomalous warmth from the past several weeks, but it did very well with this trough at 500. Also, it should be noted that the GFS/CMC combo did fairly well with this. Even more impressive is the trough is lifting out at the end of this run, and the components for next week's western cutoff are descending southward along the spine of the Rockies. While modeling has been less than stellar this year, this was a good look. Interestingly, I will dig back through some more posts later, but I believe the Euro operational erroneously dug this trough into the Southwest and kept it there. (edit...The main error with the EPS is that its timing from fifteen days ago was maybe 24-30 hours off...which is not bad at all from that range.). But the idea of three waves running a front (w the last being our shot) has been on models for more many, many runs.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Looks to me like another cold front on Feb 14th. My guess is the Euro is under-modeling that system if real. Remember how the Euro backed off temps for last night's and today's system(and into the weekend) to the point it barely had any negative anomalies at all? Here is what it has now for hour 12. Below are the 6z initialized temps for hour 12. Departures range from 5 to 20 degrees. Negative departures(not as cold as below) are forecast to remain in place until Sunday evening. Major differences in modeling begin as early as mid-week next week. The GFS and CMC still handle the cutoff in the Southwest much differently. The Euro(and this is an opinion) is having issues with that cutoff in the Southwest(edit...a well known bias, but also sometimes verifies). Is that causing it to struggle in the mid-range? Plenty of arguments in either direction. The MJO heading into phase 5 this morning supports it. But if I was going to take any model against all others(which it is currently), it would be the Euro/EPS combo. That said, IMHO it is again under-doing a potential trough centered around the 14th. I think it might not hurt to blend the Euro op and the GFS/CMC operationals. The first is likely too warm and the other two are likely too cold. Next few runs will tell me if that hunch is correct.
  24. Carvers Gap
    And now the 18z GEFS has matched the operational. Not getting too hyped about that, but interesting for sure to see large scale changes to the 500 pattern at relatively close range on an ensemble. Gotta see the EPS bend before serious consideration, but that is another model flipping a good chunk of its run.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Definitely an element of a +PNA on the GFS after the 10th.
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