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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    And the 0z GEFS has broken a bit from continuity post 300. Still not there yet, but the trough out West has been really disrupted.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Despite the 500 pattern, cold has overwhelmed the pattern at this point out to 354. The cold front at 18z was a 10+/10. This one was a 9.5/10.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Did the 0z GFS just hold serve past 300 hours?!
  4. Carvers Gap
    And yet, here comes the front with cold air pushing under the 500 ridge yet again. I still think it hangs up, but at 312 her she comes into west TN. Yes, that is PBP at 300...that is how bad it is (for future readers referencing this post)!
  5. Carvers Gap
    The energy has to go west or east of the Rockies...can't ride the spine. The front on this run will hold up in the Plains vs coming east. We need that piece of energy to come across the continental divide and not dive west and dig that trough. Both are realistic possibilities.
  6. Carvers Gap
    At 240, you can see the energy at 500 split over Seattle as if it couldn't decide to go west or east. As is, looks like it will deepen the western trough vs allowing it to slide eastward with cold air. Model is literally splitting hairs with that piece of energy. Something to keep an eye on.
  7. Carvers Gap
    That little piece of energy at 240 is where the run hangs on an edge. Probably won't stay that way. The 18z and 0z were nearly identical until that piece of energy headed west of the Rockies instead of east.
  8. Carvers Gap
    You can see on the 0z GFS about the energy having to go west or east of the Rockies. The energy at 0z was over the Seattle and tried to dodge east like 18z and split. It regrouped to the West. Sent some energy west of the Coastals.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Want a really good example of an EPS bust, look at last November(2018). I was all-in on warm and made it clear. John challenged the model, and he was right. I have rarely seen the EPS so locked into a solution and see it bust. November went cold. It basically did the same thing this fall...but those were shoulder seasons and we are on different ground now as it is deep into winter. But sometimes modeling can seem locked and miss. So, never hurts to question modeling even if it is likely to be correct. The GFS shows one way to cold compared to an abundance of paths going warm. But again, if it was cold forecast and the 18z hiccuped...I would be watching the next few runs.
  10. Carvers Gap
    FTR, the 18z run on modeling has thrown a wrench in many a forecast cold spell IMBY. Probably doesn't continue, but who knows. Just something fun to watch...
  11. Carvers Gap
    Is it realistic in the face of evidence against it? Probably not because it is an outlier. Is it a realistic path to exiting the upcoming warm pattern? Sure. It is not like we are asking for it to get cold in July - that is an unrealistic outlier. The 18z GFS run was a realistic outlier with plenty of basis in reality. I would be the first to admit that the run was wonky - it was not. As stated above, get super cold in the front range and get a cutter. Not a super difficult switch. Cold has overwhelmed MJO patterns in the past. It will again. With cold in the front range there is no physical feature to lock it into place there - just atmospheric pressure. But I am not hanging my hat on one 18z run of the GFS...like never. However, I said yesterday to assume I am "warm" in my thinking unless otherwise states. I am just looking for ways out of this or just some oasis where we can get a cold shot or two. I have seen locked-in cold patterns and locked-in warm patterns evaporate on modeling...patterns which had excellent synoptic support. Sometimes the weather just doesn't cooperate. Check out Bob Chill's comments in the MA forum regarding that run. If we had been looking at a potential cold pattern for several weeks on modeling, and the 18z suddenly showed some warmth. We probably wouldn't take it seriously unless another run backed it up...but I can guarantee all of us would be checking that next run just in case. Same deal here.
  12. Carvers Gap
    And again...quick note. If that much cold is in the front range and you see something slide across at 500, be sure to look at surface temps under it.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Also, if the eastern ridge were to get tall, the base of that ridge will be attacked by the STJ. Same thing would happen if it was out West. The thing I suspect is that ensembles are washing out some big storms into the center of the country. Those storms can fight a ridge in the East. In September, there was no cold to fight that ridge. Not so now. Anyway, going to enjoy my d12-15 cold until the next run and HOPE (which is not a forecast) for a trend to variability. We are long past due for a crap pattern to actually not verify.
  14. Carvers Gap
    So, the 18z GEFS does offer weak support for the operational. The cold presses under the 500 ridge to the west. With a run with that much cold in Montana...need to look under the 500 pattern to see if it is pressing. Not in any way saying I believe the GFS, just glad to see something that shows what "could" happen and what used to happen when cold built in MT. Get the cold into the front range and get a blizzard to the Lakes...and who knows. There is a crap ton of cold forecast to be in Canada.
  15. Carvers Gap
    My gripe for days is that this is an active pattern with an active STJ. One good storm that cuts into that ridge could change-up the pattern. I just don't think the northern hemispheric pattern is going to come to a stall for ten days. Too much energy. I have been frustrated that modeling doesn't show that active pattern with lots of variability.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, that is the mother load....right in the middle of the warm-up. I would laugh for days if that actually happened. Unlikely as that is the GFS at range, but if the cold goes into the front range and then we get a cutter...look out. The EPS control wasn't far from that look at 12z.
  17. Carvers Gap
    I have quoted JB a couple of times already. It is very difficult for cold temps to go straight down the spine of the Rockies. It will take the path of least resistance east or west of the Rockies. This time it went east. That much cold is going to spread out, MJO or no MJO. A huge discharge of cold air can get sent south by a cutter.
  18. Carvers Gap
    While were are busying saying a post mortem for a month that hasn't occurred....LOL...enjoy the 18z GFS. That is one way to make the MJO mute. Cold overwhelms the pattern.
  19. Carvers Gap
    December was lost. January may well be lost. But...
  20. Carvers Gap
  21. Carvers Gap
    The Dobyns-Bennett HS Marching Band will be in the Tournament of Roses Parade today. They are 73rd in line. Big day for the Carvers Gap family as three from our family(one of our own and two nieces/nephews) will be in Pasadena marching in that parade. Busses left the hotel at 6:00AM and are in route to stage for the parade as I type. ~360 band members will represent Kingsport as they wind through the parade route. They have already marched at the BandFest event and at DisneyLand on this trip. I have secretly been hoping for good weather this week both there and here(for travel and for marching). Hallmark Channel usually has the best coverage. I do hear that KTLA will have coverage of individual bands. D-B will be on national TV when they make the big turn in front of the grandstands. Going to be a long day marching for them as the route is like 5+ miles. So, big day for our family and community. Roll Tribe and Happy New Year!
  22. Carvers Gap
    American modeling completely caved to the Euro last night on the MJO. I still think there are some feedback issues on modeling and that there will be some variability in the LR pattern, at least more than is modeled on ensembles. However, I can remember plenty of years at UT when I was walking to class in a t-shirt during January and February. So, non-winters and warm winters do happen at this latitude. This has every semblance of one of those 1990s winters that were very warm...On the bright side, once every 2-3 years, there were bigs snows and/or bad winters. Even during warm winters, there were usually time frames where it could snow. Looks like there might be some sort of pattern shake-up later this month. Again, that would fit with the duration of this warm pattern that developed during early December. As I noted in June, if the MJO continues to fire...going to be an ugly pattern setting up shop. The main way we get out of this is with Atlantic blocking. On some modeling, one can see another way as well. The western trough lifts north around January 20th-ish and then sets up shop in a retrograding fashion over the Aleutians. Cold air bellies under the easter ridge and the pattern changes or relaxes for 7-14 days. However, though there are signs that indeed the trough will be in the East at the very end of the month...but that itself may be temporary if the MJO cycles back into 4-6 which there are signs of on the EMON. The Euro model is absolutely schooling the American suite right now. I do look a the GFS as it can show pattern changes. However, it really has not been correct very often since late November in the d8-15 range. I will continue to comment about it, but with the idea that the GFS can't be trusted at all in the LR. So, not much we can do. Warmth and likely record warmth of long duration is likely on its way. We will "hope" for a flip, but with full understanding this is going to take weeks and not days to get out of. While AN temps do makes sustained snowy patterns very unlikely, it can still snow even in a warm pattern. I think for this winter the best we can do is hope for a pattern change or relaxation during late January or early February. Very few despise a warm January more than me, but looks like that is the card we have been dealt barring a major change in modeling which still could happen. Those flips have happened in the past. Always important to remember that modeling doesn't control natural factors, but just tries to extrapolate the pattern forward just enough and produce a useful product. So, it is always possible that things can change, and we will watch for those. I do think this year we see the November pattern return, but with the understand we could do a January/February 2019 redux. This is why I hate Nino winters. They are late arrivals to the party and then sometimes...they just don't arrive. It would not shock me to see the fall pattern repeat...record warmth followed by a flip. Indeed, as John noted and the record lows for TRI indicate, 1955 did have cold later in the winter. As for rain, I think TVA sees it. They have been sending plenty of water downstream IMBY(I see the Holston multiple times per day) which I usually see prior to rainy time frames. Cherokee Lake, where my in-laws live, is sitting about its normal low pool for this time of year. So, looks like there is plenty of room up this way to story the excess rainfall forecast. Up until this week, urban streams had been running low and clear. And there is a reason this entire system of dams has been put into place...the TN River Valley is known fro incredible flooding(and droughts). Happy New Year to everyone. Wish I had better news, but plenty of time for outdoor stuff.
  23. Carvers Gap
    The very end of the GEFS has much AN heights in most of AK with that trough underneath. I suspect that trough would get kicked eastward if real. Keep that eastern pac ridge pushing east as a trend.
  24. Carvers Gap
    The 0z GFS is the way to mute the warm-up. It has done. this four of the last five runs. Needs some support. The 0z GEFS is still locked into a nearly stationary and counter-intuitive stationary hemispheric pattern and give little support to the operational.
  25. Carvers Gap
    The 0z CMC has shifted the eastern Pac ridge east as well. Just takes a minor adjustment to get that cold into the front range and let is spread eastward. Even if the mean pattern is an eastern ridge, periodic cold shots could make the pattern workable or at least not a full torch.
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