Jump to content

Carvers Gap

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    16,533

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    Vol football Saturday and basketball season just around the corner. VERY excited about basketball this year. We have some legitimate depth at guard this year, and we all know that is a good mix for the post season.
  2. Carvers Gap
    For sure...And going back to last winter, it failed even more than that. Plus it is shoulder season, so plenty of reason for some solid skepticism...see that alliteration? But yeah, looks like it might verify at least in the short term anyway. Each run I am just expecting a correction which means the trough to head into the Mountain West. Sooooo, looks like a period of tough-i-ness followed by a near certain +NAO and SER for winter? Total speculation and just spitballing....If we hold to six week weather cycles which I do as a very rough rule....That gives us a trough until late October, then a ridge for six weeks, and a trough back by the end of December. I mean that kind of looks like what some LR modeling has, especially the Euro seasonal. But I still think we better score by mid-Jan. Looks very shaky after that if one is using both modeling and Nina climatology. That said, I wouldn't be surprised for a pattern with an eastern trough to hang around for some time, and then flip warm right as winter begins. 1989 will forever be remembered for that lesson. Great start...then torch city.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Posted this in the obs thread on accident...moved it to here. If you like a -AO, the Euro Weeklies are your huckleberry. Nice amplification still being depicted next week w an eastern trough. Hope that solution holds!!!
  4. Carvers Gap
    Especially after the September torch from last year!!!!
  5. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, there have been some wild looking solutions on modeling since the middle of the week last week. Odds are it dumps West like it did last time. LOL. Models seem to really like an eastern trough, only to back off as we get closer. That said, there is a pretty strong signal for very cold air to dump into the Lower 48 yet again this fall - already been significant cold into the northern Rockies. Right now, models are showing a strong amplification of the western ridge nearly into the Arctic on some models. Now, that sometimes allows the cold to buckle right underneath it into Montana and Wyoming. For now, modeling is sending it eastward. Then the fun begins as the pattern seems to hold with a deep eastern trough. The Euro/EPS are pretty much at the time of year where I don't trust them as much. However, what the EPS and operational are doing(and have been doing for a few days...weeklies caught it Thursday) is depicting a blocky pattern which does not want to budge. They did nearly the same thing a couple of weeks ago, only for it to revert to a western trough that buckled into the Rockies. That said, it is impressive what is being depicted nonetheless.
  6. Carvers Gap
    That is some pretty strong, high latitude blocking being shown by the operational Euro and EPS. Catches my attention for sure around the d10 range.
  7. Carvers Gap
    The Weeklies can easily fool me at this time of the year...but that is some crazy blocking in the HB and Greenland area at times during that run. Looks like the eastern trough amplifies fairly regularly with a few bouts of a ridge rolling through, but popping again out West. Jeff, feel free to add or subtract from those brief comments....I always look forward to the "Jeff update" on the Weeklies!
  8. Carvers Gap
    Some beautiful weekend wx upcoming once this tropical system exits. TRI is forecasting highs in the 70s with lows in the 40s. Much different than last Sept where we hit 90+ for roughly 14 days with multiple record highs. We have hit 90 only one time during this Sept. We are four degrees above normal right now, but that number should come down quickly after today.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, coastal states in the West are getting torched, literally. The recent snows and rain really helped the intermountain West. It was within about 48-72 hours of getting scary bad there. The snow storm put a dent in that danger. Now, does that threat come back in the intermountain West as that ridge rebuilds? IDK - maybe. The good things is that the days are getting shorter and temps at high elevation will start to cool off. For places like California and Oregon, not good at all with very little relief in sight.
  10. Carvers Gap
    We have been fooled once already this season, but the EPS is showing what I consider to be a significant pattern shift over NA with a big ridge holding out West with a low over the Aleutians. Not wasting much time going into the details. Pattern change is now within seven days though. Maybe those CPC maps are on the money. If so, we have MUCH cooler temps on the way and soon.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Worth a read from the MA forum regarding the +QBO in relation to Nina winters which follow a Nino.
  12. Carvers Gap
    CPC maps made today depict BN temps in the 6-10 day, 8-14 day, and 3-4 week experimental forecast ranges. Not often one sees that. I will even settle for seasonal.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Whew! It was warm yesterday. Starting to get flashbacks of last September. Looks like a cool down is on the way for the latter third of the month. That said, we hit 90(or above) fourteen times last September. We have hit it zero times so far during this September at TRI. We may very well hit it today though, but still much improved! Watching cross country runners fight the heat yesterday afternoon....glad I was a spectator and glad there was some shade on the course!!! I have much respect for young people who can traverse a course in that heat and humidity.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Time to wake this place up after a few days nap. Looks like LR models are again signaling a cool-off in the East just after ten days(we know the drill when we hear "ten days"). Anyway, I suspect modeling is on to another shot of BN air entering the Lower 48 in the d10-16 time frame - maybe even a bit earlier. edit: Euro OP has it inside of d10.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Completely missed that last paragraph. My deepest apologies for not seeing that. How is it going Jax? Also, thanks for the consistent ENSO updates.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Hey, I actually like one big storm to take all of the leaves down!!!! LOL. I don't like getting nickel and dimed with leaf work. I like seeing howlers come through and just strip every leaf.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Nah...no jinx. Yeah, noticed those trends yesterday morning. They are very similar to last winter. Models dump cold west after an original false push eastward. But hey, it is not winter and I like seeing anomalous cold in the pattern early. Last September, the entire country was baking during Sept and Oct. Changing wavelengths will shake up the pattern...and those changing wavelengths appear to be occurring a bit early. It is possible that modeling just jumped the gun a bit. Wouldn't be surprised to see the cooler air dump eastward at some point shortly after the head fake time frame.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Rains have definitely increased IMBY. It looks like spring here with all of the green. So far this is the antithesis of September last year. Leaves should look awesome this year.
  19. Carvers Gap
    The seasonal CANSIPS which was released today looks much improved for Dec/Jan at 500. My interpretation is that model is touting a seasonal start to winter and then backing West sometime in early to mid January. Also, I would interpret that a flip to cold begins sometime in mid-late November. The model also implies there may be periodic pushes of cold during January before a full retreat to torch city for February. Very classic Nina pattern. Here is the Dec look which is not half bad with a. nice EPO/PNA ridge(more EPO than PNA for sure):
  20. Carvers Gap
    Honestly, I am game for a nice September and then a warmish Oct through mid-Nov. That might give us a colder start to winter, allow for a thaw, and then maybe steal a cold shot in late Jan/early Feb in the middle of warm wx.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Some pretty strong highs showing up in that time frame as well...1040 on the Euro late in its run in fantasy land. Euro control is quite chilly at 12z as well. Would be a nice contrast to last September for sure!
  22. Carvers Gap
    Just for kicks and giggles...the 18zGFS has temps in the upper 30s over the eastern mountains post 300 after a system runs rolls inland. You know I have though that if a system from the GOM were to catch a cold front coming in around Sept 10th....that would be might cold rain!!!!
  23. Carvers Gap
    Looks like the latest cone has Laura going into central Arkansas and into southwest KY...then turning sharply eastward. I will be glad to see some rain. Might be the ticket to a really nice leaf season in the Smokies with rain now.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Feel free to post as much tropical info as possible. MBY is probably good which is why I haven't posted about it. That said, I am more than willing to read and respond to posts about Laura as your area of the subform seems assured of some impacts if modeling is correct. But you folks in the west end of the forum, have at it! Please post observations and thoughts on the system. You know I am here about every day - I will read it!
  25. Carvers Gap
    Six more days until meteorological summer wraps up in the forum area. I tend to see fall as Sept/Oct/Nov in that(met) manner. We are nearly close enough to begin seeing the first frost chances on the Weeklies runs. August has been tolerable. July may well prove to have been the high water mark in terms of temps as Jeff keenly noted a few weeks ago. Going to be interesting to see where the tropical precip tracks. Andy deficits in precip may be made-up quickly depending on the track. Those with already high totals may set some records that will last for decades!
×
×
  • Create New...