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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    So far, the 12z ICON, GFS, and CMC are singing the same tune. Looks like a cold front of some sort is being picked-up around the 14th. Only thing I can possibly assume is that something has changed with the MJO. It is definitely different on the ECMF which is making a bee line to 7 before fading off late. Keep in mind, that model was in the COD prior or low amp. If the high amplitude GEFS is in "half right" as the Euro has caved there...maybe modeling is seeing the MJO move out of 6 quicker? That just doesn't account for the flip early in the run. Maybe just be three models making a hiccup....If the MJO is not going to stay in warmer phases longer...the EPO might hold in place?
  2. Carvers Gap
    Go to the 12z GFS and look at hour 342...that is a monster western ridge? Probably going to roll eastward, but...LOL...that is crazy.
  3. Carvers Gap
    The best I can tell is that there are hints of a PNA ridge and the EPO is in tighter. This forces the trough out of the West and creates a more progressive pattern where there are troughs in the East. Guessing something inputed(model data) has changed something on those two models. I don't bite on (edit..lol)one off model runs, but I do take notice. The 12z CMC and GFS are not that different at all.
  4. Carvers Gap
    The CMC basically just did the same thing. Not going to get into the "is it real" stuff. Good chance it won't be. However, anyone care to venture a guess on why the sudden change? Just talking model stuff and not forecasts....
  5. Carvers Gap
    Let's see if the CMC follows what the GFS just did. This trend began at 0z on both the GFS and CMC, but have been waiting to see if the operationals doubled down at 12z . The CMC was cold at 0z late in the run. And we all know the rules...so I don't have to restate them. We will watch the 12z suite and see if the Euro shows any hint of support. Just a little surprised to see modeling flipping around well inside of d10. It it isn't real, we just get a good laugh.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Don't worry. I am used to it. LOL.
  7. Carvers Gap
    It has another threat around 240. Not sure I believe that run, but that is a lot of cold(well inside of 240).
  8. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS is a major break from continuity very early in the run....
  9. Carvers Gap
    So did the 12z GFS just eliminate the ridge(edit) inside of 240 for the most part? It has another snow threat inside of 150.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Check that...was in a hurry. Trough is out of the West and in the northern Plains but shallow.
  11. Carvers Gap
    I still remain unconvinced modeling has the pattern handled pafter the ridge early next week. The 12z EPS again tries to push 2m temps BN after 300. The trough is basically gone in the lower 48. 500 looks zonal but temps look cold then.
  12. Carvers Gap
    And if they get an appreciable amounts of snow at elevation on Friday and Saturday...going to be a mess with that much rain hitting it. Whew. No fishing in the mountains for weeks!
  13. Carvers Gap
    And you all know, we are going to hit La Nina and this spigot is just going to shut-off and go bone dry for months - probably late summer into fall.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Thankful for the downslope. Just 9.5" of rain over the next ten days. LOL. You folks on the Plateau are going to need an ark.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Definitely not good modeling trends after this weekend. MJO regions are just lit, and have been all winter. Zero sign of that letting up during the next two weeks. We noted during the summer that was a big risk, and it certainly has been a problem all winter. Jeff hit the nail on the head with the IOD flaring up. Like throwing gasoline on a fire in the warm phases of the MJO. Really there are a few ways that we can still catch a storm: 1. Changing wavelengths later this month and into March. 2. Cold overwhelms the pattern(not seeing that in any shape or form at this moment) Will give it a few more days and then time to turn my attention to the garden. @Stovepipe been a great winter for turnips. Mine are still alive. Heck, I have a lot of stuff still alive since fall. Fava beans will go in once the ground dries out a bit. Seeds are sitting on my counter ready to go. Going to start my seeds this year for tomatoes and peppers. Been a while since I have done that, but we are losing places that have offered good diversity. So, going to get back to growing my own stuff.
  16. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GEFS at 500 is much different at 500 that it was at 0z. For all intents and purposes it has removed the western trough by the end of the run. We talked this morning about the how modeling is all over the place with the MJO. Makes since that there is some movement on the GEFS which was on its own. By no means is that discussion a success based on the 18z GEFS. I don't trust that model. However, the GEPS at 12z was nearly there, and the EPS is showing cold pressing. Now, not entirely sure that the new look is better as the trough retreats into Canada. However, with cold in eastern Canada, it may press with cold high pressure at the surface. I still don't think that pattern is done adjusting after the 10th.
  17. Carvers Gap
    I have sometimes seen something back into the front range In Colorado. But E TX/Lousiana to New Mexico is a first. Add in two ice storms to go with our snow this weekend, and Happy Hour has yet again lived up to its name yet again.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Is it that feature at 300 over MS/AL moving westward...like to New Mexico?
  19. Carvers Gap
    And the GFS isn't done yet. LOL
  20. Carvers Gap
    Unless I am wrong, the AO on the Euro run is going to go from near record positive values and then crash into the negative range.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Thanks for the great commentary. Yeah, I am not sold on the Euro solution...just noting there is some uncertainty after the 15th or so. I am actually not convinced any model has the actual pattern evolution nailed down yet, and that is understandable at this range. Just looking for a window of 2-3 days at a time. The base-warm pattern is unlikely to be broken prior to the end of winter unless the TPV, as you note, gets involved. Interesting to watch for sure. But no matter how Feb goes, you have the Chiefs to get you through and then it is March Madness!
  22. Carvers Gap
    See, I think it is not an actual null phase. I think it is 2/3 canceling out 6. That has not worked well for us this winter as 6 usually has usually won that battle.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Want to see some wild differences...take a look at the 12z GFS and the 12z GEFS regarding surface temp anomalies after d10. It should be noted that they are basically different models as the GFS has the update and the GFS operational is at range. It may very well be that both models are in error. The 12z GFS MSLP anomaly is hilariously cold after d10. The 12z GEFS is a mega torch which may or may not be based on an erroneous MJO(see above post). Both extremes may very well be incorrect, but at least American modeling has covered the ranges of possibilities for this time frame. The only thing I find even remotely interesting is that the CMC has a similar MSLP(to the GFS) anomaly as its runs ends. Other than that...very warm vs very cold. What could go wrong?
  24. Carvers Gap
    ...and one last note. The above figures are used as examples of where the pattern could go and are not intended to be gospel. When looking at medium and LR patterns, it is understood that modeling can and will likely change. So, looking at trends, similarities, and differences can give us some idea of the most likely path(s) that the weather might take. So, view those comments as general observations and kicking around potential. As much as modeling has bounced around during the past 2-3 weeks...that also has to be kept in mind.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Gonna need a bigger glass if you go look at the GEFS MJO. Seriously, not sure I have seen this much spread on the MJO in a long time. The EMON takes it a low amplitude into 5/6 for just a few days and then heads to the COD like the BOMM. The GEFS goes almost off the charts into phase 6 with no COD. The BOMM from a few days ago is more like the EMON, so I cautiously roll with those two. But there is basically a vastly different MJO solution for each model. The CFSv2 even goes into phase 7 after its COD. With the MJO driving the bus, having wildly different solutions may very well cause some modeling issues after say the 14th.
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